Not every Celtic fan is in love with Danny Ainge‘s patient, meticulous approach to stockpiling assets and building the team’s roster, but that strategy began to pay major dividends in 2017. The Celtics made a strong second-half push to nab the No. 1 seed in the Eastern Conference, then took advantage of their pick swap with the Nets and some lottery luck to grab the No. 1 pick in the draft as well.
Of course, each of those accomplishments comes with a caveat. Despite their spot atop the Eastern Conference, the Celtics didn’t come anywhere close to knocking off the Cavaliers in the Conference Finals, and will need to add another impact player to their roster to help close that gap. As for the No. 1 overall pick, Boston became the first team in recent NBA history to trade that top selection in advance of the draft, sending it to Philadelphia for this year’s No. 3 pick and a future first-rounder.
Even after a 53-win season and a pair of playoff series victories, Ainge continues to turn current present-day assets into future pieces. Will that approach change at all this summer?
Here are five key questions facing the Celtics as the offseason begins:
1. What will the Celtics do with the third overall pick?
When the Celtics first completed their trade with the Sixers earlier in the week, there seemed to be two schools of thought for what Boston had in mind for its next move — the team would either select Kansas forward Josh Jackson, or use its newly-acquired picks in a trade for a star.
Several days later, it’s not clear that the Celtics will take either route. If the club keeps its pick, there’s no guarantee that Jackson will be the selection — many experts believe Boston may be leaning toward Jayson Tatum instead, and Jonathan Isaac has even been mentioned as a possibility. There have also been reports suggesting that the Celtics could trade down again, perhaps with an eye on a player like Dennis Smith Jr.
The Celtics are sitting in a great spot, and at this point there’s no real wrong answer for the club — whatever happens, Boston should come out of draft night with either a young potential star or a player who is already a star.
2. Is this the right time for the Celtics to cash in some trade chips?
Several teams are reportedly interested in moving into the top four in an effort to land Jackson, making the Celtics an ideal trade partner — there’s no guarantee Jackson would be available at No. 4, but with Markelle Fultz and Lonzo Ball considered strong favorites to be the first two picks, the No. 3 pick may be the spot for the former Jayhawk.
The Bulls and Knicks are said to have legit interest in Jackson, and each of those teams has been exploring trade scenarios involving its stars — Jimmy Butler in Chicago and Kristaps Porzingis in New York. Either player would be a terrific fit in Boston, though Porzingis, in particular, would be a perfect addition for the C’s. He’d be capable of providing the sort of rim protecting the club has been missing, without compromising short-term cap flexibility.
Still, if Ainge perceives the asking price for those players to be too high, he’s under no real pressure to make a move. Pundits and fans may be anxious for the Celtics to push the Cavs in 2017/18, but Ainge certainly recognizes that he has the team well-positioned for the next five or 10 years — not just the next two or three. There’s no urgency to go all-in within the next couple years, particularly with LeBron James not yet showing any signs of slowing down.
There are potential moves the Celtics could make that would improve the current roster without compromising the team’s ability to contend for the next decade, but striking a balance between those two goals will be the key.
3. What can the Celtics do in free agency?
Historically, the Celtics haven’t frequently landed impact players in free agency, but that changed last summer when the team poached Al Horford, one of the top veterans on the market, from Atlanta. A year later, Boston may try to repeat that feat, having been consistently linked to pending free agents like Gordon Hayward and Blake Griffin.
Creating enough cap room for a maximum salary offer to a player such as Hayward or Griffin will require at least one or two additional roster moves, but that shouldn’t be a significant roadblock if the Celtics are able to get a commitment from a star free agent.
Given Griffin’s injury history and the fact that he’s not an elite rim protector, Hayward looks to me like the better fit in Boston. However, if the Celtics end up landing a forward like Paul George or Jimmy Butler around the time of the draft, it’s possible they won’t pursue Hayward quite so aggressively. And even if they do go after Hayward and/or Griffin, the Celtics have no assurances — both players will be coveted by many potential suitors, and could earn more money by re-signing with their own respective 51-win teams.
4. Will 2016’s first-rounders arrive stateside for 2017/18?
When considering the Celtics’ collection of assets, their current players and future draft picks generally get most of the attention, but the team’s draft-and-stash prospects shouldn’t be overlooked. Guerschon Yabusele and Ante Zizic, last year’s 16th and 23rd overall picks, respectively, had very strong seasons overseas, and appear capable of being long-term pieces for the Celtics, assuming they’re not traded.
Both Yabusele and Zizic reportedly have interest in joining the C’s for the 2017/18 season, so Boston will have to decide whether the time is right to bring them over. Neither player will be expensive, but even their modest cap hits could compromise the Celtics’ ability to offer a maximum salary contract to a free agent, and if Boston doesn’t believe the youngsters are ready to contribute right away, it might make more sense to wait another year to start the clock on their four-year rookie contracts.
I still expect we’ll see at least one – and perhaps both – of those two draft-and-stash prospects arrive in Boston this year, but the decision is a complicated one and will require an agreement from both sides.
5. Which rotation players are keepers?
Outside of Isaiah Thomas, an MVP candidate in 2016/17, and perhaps Al Horford, the Celtics don’t have any All-Stars on their current roster. The team should be looking to increase its star power, either in the form of a current star or a young player with the potential to become one. But in order to have a shot at a great player or two, Boston may have to determine which of its “good” players are expendable.
For instance, Kelly Olynyk, a reliable piece of Boston’s frontcourt last season, is eligible for restricted free agency. If the Celtics intend to pursue an elite free agent, there’s a good chance they’ll have to renounce Olynyk’s $7.7MM+ cap hold to create the necessary room.
If the Celtics go the trade route to land a star, some combination of Avery Bradley, Jae Crowder, Jaylen Brown, Marcus Smart, and Terry Rozier would likely be headed in the other direction. Based on their current ability to contribute, their future potential, and their contract situations, which of those players will Boston view as most expendable?
I suspect that out of that group, the Celtics will prioritize keeping Brown. But if C’s get deep into trade talks with the Bulls, Pacers, Knicks, or another team, and the inclusion of Brown is a sticking point for that club, Ainge will have a tough decision to make.
Here’s where things currently stand for the Celtics financially:
Guaranteed Salary
- Al Horford ($27,734,405)
- Avery Bradley ($8,808,989)
- Jae Crowder ($6,796,117)
- Isaiah Thomas ($6,261,395)
- Jaylen Brown ($4,956,480)
- Marcus Smart ($4,538,020)
- Terry Rozier ($1,988,520)
- Demetrius Jackson ($650,000) — Partial guarantee. Non-guaranteed portion noted below.1
- Total: $61,733,926
Player Options
- None
Team Options
- None
Non-Guaranteed Salary
- Tyler Zeller ($8,000,000)2
- Jordan Mickey ($1,471,382)3
- Demetrius Jackson ($734,750) — Partial guarantee. Guaranteed portion noted above.1
- Total: $10,206,132
Restricted Free Agents
- Kelly Olynyk ($4,187,598 qualifying offer / $7,735,033 cap hold)
- Total: $7,735,033
Cap Holds
- Amir Johnson ($15,600,000)
- Jonas Jerebko ($9,500,000)
- No. 3 overall pick ($5,645,400)
- James Young ($2,803,507)
- Guerschon Yabusele ($2,247,480)
- Ante Zizic ($1,645,200)
- Gerald Green ($1,471,382)
- Total: $40,293,809
Projected Salary Cap: $99,000,000
Maximum Cap Room: $26,177,629
- For our max cap room calculation, we assumed the C’s will keep their seven guaranteed contracts plus Jackson (whose non-guaranteed portion is cheaper than an empty roster slot), and accounted for cap holds for the No. 1 pick, Yabusele, Zizic, and an empty roster spot. That works out to $72,822,371, which doesn’t quite leave enough room for a max salary for someone like Gordon Hayward. However, Boston could create more cap space by stashing Yabusele and/or Zizic for another year, or by making a trade.
Footnotes:
- Jackson’s salary becomes fully guaranteed after July 15.
- Zeller’s salary becomes fully guaranteed after July 2.
- Mickey’s salary becomes fully guaranteed after either July 1 or July 15 (conflicting information available).
Salary information from Basketball Insiders and The Vertical was used in the creation of this post. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
I don’t see how you can pass up the Porzingis deal.
Me neither. If he’s available and Phil isn’t looking for a Brink’s heist deal, it’s the way to go.
If the rumors are true that Phil only wants a top 4 and a starter, I’ve got both my pick and Crowder on a plane in a heartbeat
I think Boston is angling for a Paul George rental.
The logic is that two reports came out this week of the Bulls offering Jimmy Butler for the 3 pick – first to Philly, then to Boston. The Bulls and 76ers don’t benefit in the slightest from that info getting out. So it was clearly a Boston source that leaked it.
How does Boston benefit from that info getting out? It doesn’t help them in the Butler market. The Bulls know if they did or didn’t make that offer (I don’t think they did.) But Indy doesn’t know. George is already going to get less in a trade return than Butler would due to the contracts. If it’s perceived that Butler isn’t worth the 3 pick, then what is George worth? Boston is probably trying to lower the George market by leaking these stories so they can give up secondary assets for him (e.g. The clippers pick. Or any of their own late first round picks the next few years.)
Everything we’ve seen from Danny in the past would lead me to believe the opposite.
Everything I’ve seen from Ainge suggests that he’d absolutely try to rip off a team… He did it to land Garnett. He did it when he traded Garnett. And he’d be doing it here. Even with George announcing his plan to leave for LA in a year, he should still have more trade value than a heavily protected pick from the Clippers and another pick in the high 20s. If Ainge can successfully lower the asking price to that level, then he’d be a moron for declining.
Figure this, the Clippers pick CAN’T be higher than 15. If the Clippers lose Paul and Griffin this summer, then they’ll likely be in the lottery in 2019 and 2020 – thus meaning the pick conveyed will be a 2nd rounder. If the Clippers keep their current roster in tact, the pick will likely be low 20s. If they find a way to lure Lebron next summer, then the pick will be high 20s. So the best-case scenario for the Celtics is to get a pick in the low 20s here – the likeliest scenario is to get a 2nd round pick in 2022.
The bottom line is that these aren’t very valuable picks. You’re lucky to get rotational players with them. If the Celtics can turn them into a year of Paul George, they’d have essentially stolen him. If they can to use the year to convince Paul George to stay in Boston (the Cavs convinced Kevin Love when everyone thought he was headed to the Lakers), then this would be the steal of the century.
Since when do stories get leaked only to benefit a team? These stories could be leaked to try and drive up the asking price. Boston renting Paul George for one season makes little sense considering the price tag and his desire to join the Lakers next season.
Always… The only reason a team ever leaks information (or misinformation) is to benefit themselves. They want that information out in the public for a reason. And when it comes to misinformation (which this was ’cause it’s far-fetched to believe that the Bulls offered Butler for just the 3 pick), the only reason a team wants it out there is to trick a secondary party.
Teams use the media like this all the time! And a lot of media members go with it, knowing it’s a lie, because it helps get them exclusive information down the road. Think about it from their perspective. Sports journalists aren’t paid because they’re right a high percentage of the time. They’re paid because they have sources that allow them to break major stories. This is how they do that. This is how the sports media has worked for 50 years…
And yes, stories do get leaked to drive up an asking price as well. But how is that happening here? The Knicks are the only team that can offer more than Butler for the 3 pick (KP), but his name wasn’t even being floated in rumors until after this stuff was leaked. Additionally, the Knicks have a value set on him. If they don’t get that value, they won’t trade him. They can easily wait for his market to go up… The Pacers can’t wait very long. They need to deal PG before the season to get any value at all.
Why go after a rental when you could have a young controllable star on a team friendly rookie deal for the same price or a little more? Plus for now we have Crowder who has turned into a great two way forward at the small forward so i think putting our needs first is always smart. If we have to give up the 3rd pick for Porzingus I will be fine with that but if we have to give up the 3rd pick for George or Butler I will be mad. If we can land Porzingus for the 3rd pick, Smart or Rozier and future picks I will be happy. If somehow we can land him without giving up the 3rd picks and without giving up guys like Crowder or Bradley or Brown I will be supper happy. Imagine having a big three of Jackson/Taytum Brown and Porzingus in a few years and probably still have It running the point and maybe still have old man Horford at the center but if not we will probably have drafted someone good or signed someone good to replace him(hopefully) that is a scary lineup that would stretch defenses to the limit. Plus we would probably still have our trade mark deep bench as well. I look at Boston as a combination of the 76ers and the Warriors. We are built to win right now like the Warriors and for now unlike the 76ers and also have draft picks for the future like the 76ers and unlike the Warriors.
Because you aren’t getting a controllable star with a low 20s pick or a high 20s pick. At best, you’re getting a controllable role player. In reality, you’d be lucky to get a single role player with those two picks that culd help a championship contending team. Look, Boston has a ton of potentially game-changing draft assets. The picks presented aren’t in that discussion.
Ainge knows it will be 2-3 years before Warriors peak. Build a solid team. Porzingis is tempting. Game changer for sure.
Porzingis will be 22 in August, around the age of a graduating senior, he has 2 years of NBA experience, and checks many of the boxes the C’s need around the basket. Adding him would make huge impact on the C’s and likely help convince Hayward to sign as a FA. C’s have plenty of assets and this is the guy to target now.
A graduating senior? How many of them are in the NBA? Not very many. He would be a big addition, but at what cost and you don’t sign him hoping Hayward signs as a free agent. That might be a nice benefit, but can’t be a reason for the signing.
Really? You don’t understand the age comparison including that he already has 2 years of NBA experience? “don’t sign him?” He isn’t a free agent! Of course you don’t trade for him in the hopes of Hayward signing, but it might help convince Hayward that the team wants to win a championship now, not 2020.