The Hornets continued to yo-yo back and forth under Steve Clifford‘s watch in 2016/17. Since Clifford took the reins as the team’s head coach four years ago, Charlotte has posted a pair of strong seasons, winning 43 games in Clifford’s first year and 48 in 2015/16. The Hornets have followed those impressive showings with disappointing ones, however, winning just 33 games in 2014/15 and 36 last season.
The franchise likely expects to rebound once again in 2017/18, having kicked off the offseason by acquiring eight-time All-Star Dwight Howard. While a bounce-back season is possible, there are several questions the Hornets will need to address this offseason in order to return to playoff contention. Let’s dive in…
1. Was Dwight Howard a worthwhile investment?
In the wake of this week’s trade for Howard, Clifford expressed optimism about the veteran center’s ability to regain his All-Star form. Clifford was an assistant in Orlando and then in Los Angeles when Howard was in his prime with the Magic and Lakers, so he knows him as well as anyone.
Expecting Howard to become an All-Star again may be aiming a little too high, but it’s not as if the 31-year-old was ineffective for Atlanta last season. He comfortably averaged a double-double – as he has every year since entering the league – with 13.5 PPG and 12.7 RPG, and his .633 FG% was a career best.
The Hornets also didn’t give up much to acquire Howard and to move up 10 spots in the second round of the draft, parting with Miles Plumlee and his pricey contract, plus Marco Belinelli. Belinelli is a solid, affordable rotation piece for any team, but he only has one year left on his contract, so moving him isn’t a long-term blow for Charlotte.
While it remains to be seen whether Howard can move the needle at all for the Hornets, the price to land him wasn’t exorbitant by any means, so a roll of the dice makes sense.
2. Will the Hornets be active in free agency at all?
One factor that made it easier for the Hornets to add more than $4MM in salary to their 2017/18 cap in the Howard swap was the team’s lack of projected cap room. The addition of Howard – along with the NBA’s new cap projection of $99MM – seals the deal on Charlotte being an over-the-cap team. The Hornets already have $106.5MM+ in guaranteed salaries on their books, and that’s without taking into account their first-round pick, their free agents, or Ramon Sessions‘ team option.
With no cap room to spend, the Hornets could use their mid-level exception to add a free agent or two, but the MLE is projected to start at about $8.4MM this year. The tax line is expected to come in at about $119MM, so Charlotte will have to be careful about using its entire MLE — doing so will bring the team dangerously close to going into luxury tax territory.
Without much spending power at their disposal, the Hornets figure to avoid bidding on free agents in the top two or three tiers, focusing instead on smaller pieces who could help add depth to their bench.
3. Are more trades coming?
Since free agency isn’t a real option for the Hornets to add an impact player, it’s possible that the team could return to the trade market. The team will have five players earning over $12.5MM in 2017/18, and that list doesn’t even include star point guard Kemba Walker ($12MM), so there is no shortage of contracts that could be moved to accommodate a deal.
Unfortunately for Charlotte, most of the team’s highest-paid players, such as Nicolas Batum ($22.4MM), Marvin Williams ($13.17MM), and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist ($13MM) aren’t exactly coming off outstanding years, and won’t have a ton of trade value. Those three players have overlapping skill sets, so if Charlotte could move one and perhaps pick up some backcourt help, it would make sense to do so.
The Hornets may also be able to spare a frontcourt piece if they look to deal, though it’s not clear yet how those minutes will be divided with Howard, Cody Zeller, and Frank Kaminsky all in the mix. Those three players should be able to coexist, but things could get more crowded up front if Charlotte uses its No. 11 overall pick on a big man such as Zach Collins, which would increase the odds of a trade.
4. What should the Hornets do with the 11th overall pick?
The general consensus leading up to the draft was that there was a group of 10 players atop most draft boards, with the Hornets unlikely to land one of those players at No. 11. However, in recent days, a number of rising prospects have snuck into the top 10 in various experts’ mock drafts, opening the door for an intriguing prospect to fall to the Hornets.
At ESPN, for instance, Chad Ford has Malik Monk slipping to the Hornets at No. 11. Monk is a better shooter than Donovan Mitchell and a better athlete than Luke Kennard, two other guards Charlotte figures to consider at No. 11 if they’re available. Meanwhile, Jonathan Givony’s latest mock for DraftExpress.com has French point guard Frank Ntilikina falling out of the top 10 and all the way to No. 15. If Ntilikina is available at No. 11, I expect the Hornets would seriously consider him.
5. Who will back up Kemba Walker?
Like the Wizards with John Wall, the Hornets had a hard time identifying a reliable backup for the best player on their roster last season. Ramon Sessions looked like a respectable choice, but he struggled for the Hornets, making just 38.0% of his field goals and averaging a career-low 6.2 PPG. I’d be very surprised if Charlotte exercises its $6.27MM club option on him.
The draft could actually provide the Hornets with its most logical path to a backup point guard, but guys like Ntilikina and Dennis Smith Jr. are good bets to be off the board, and may not be ready to take on a No. 2 role behind Walker anyway. Monk and Mitchell can handle the ball, but they aren’t traditional point guards, and there’s no guarantee they’ll be available either.
While a trade for a veteran backup is possible, the Hornets could save their assets by pursuing a free agent like Shaun Livingston or Darren Collison — as long as they don’t get too expensive. As noted above, Charlotte doesn’t have a whole lot of flexibility to spend, so anything above an annual salary of about $5-6MM may be out of the team’s price range.
Here’s where things currently stand for the Hornets financially:
Guaranteed Salary
- Dwight Howard ($23,500,000)
- Nicolas Batum ($22,434,783)
- Marvin Williams ($13,168,750)
- Michael Kidd-Gilchrist ($13,000,000)
- Cody Zeller ($12,584,270)
- Kemba Walker ($12,000,000)
- Jeremy Lamb ($7,000,000)
- Frank Kaminsky ($2,847,600)
- Total: $106,535,403
Player Options
- None
Team Options
- Ramon Sessions ($6,270,000)
- Total: $6,270,000
Non-Guaranteed Salary
- Johnny O’Bryant ($1,524,305)1
- Briante Weber ($1,471,382)2
- Treveon Graham ($1,312,611)
- Total: $4,308,298
Restricted Free Agents
- None
Cap Holds
- No. 11 overall pick ($2,904,480)
- Brian Roberts ($1,471,382)
- Christian Wood ($1,471,382)
- Total: $5,847,244
Trade Exceptions
- Troy Daniels TPE ($1,666,470) — Expires 7/12/17
Projected Salary Cap: $99,000,000
Maximum Cap Room: –$12,886,728
- The Hornets’ guaranteed salaries, plus cap holds for their first-round pick and three empty roster spots, total $111,886,728, putting the team well over the cap. So, barring a significant change in direction, Charlotte is unlikely to dip below the cap this summer.
Footnotes:
- O’Bryant’s salary becomes fully guaranteed after August 1.
- Weber’s salary becomes fully guaranteed after August 1.
Salary information from Basketball Insiders and The Vertical was used in the creation of this post. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
I think Charlotte has gotta find a way to move salary. Maybe send Batum to the Nets for Lin. You bring Lin back to Charlotte where he played great as Kembas back up two seasons ago, take almost 10 million off the cap, and then you look for answers to needs through the draft.
Their projected depth chart as of now is
PG-Walker, Sessions, Weber
SG-Monk, Lamb, Graham
SF-Batum, Kidd-Gilchrist, Bacon
PF-Williams, Kaminsky, O’Bryant
C-Howard, Zeller
If they can replace Sessions with Collison that has the makings of a very competitive team