A year ago, the Rockets were a directionless team that barely snuck into the playoffs. They had no coach after dispatching both Kevin McHale and J.B. Bickerstaff, and there was disharmony in the locker room stemming from a cold war between James Harden and Dwight Howard.
The problems cleared up over the span of a few weeks last summer, and Houston emerged from the wreckage with a team that posted the league’s third-best record. Mike D’Antoni was hired as head coach in early June and brought a fast-paced, spread-the-floor philosophy that the Rockets embraced. Ryan Anderson and Eric Gordon signed as free agents, adding two weapons that were perfect for D’Antoni’s system. Howard left for Atlanta, ending the behind-the-scenes dissension.
But even with those problems solved, there are questions that remain. Here are five:
1. Does this really work?
D’Antoni has a history of excellent regular-season teams that had short playoff runs. In four straight seasons in Phoenix, he coached clubs with 62, 54, 61 and 55 wins, but never advanced past the conference finals. So even as the Rockets strung together a 55-27 campaign with a record number of 3-point attempts and makes, there were plenty of skeptics waiting for the playoff failure.
It came against San Antonio, a familiar nemesis for D’Antoni teams. The Rockets’ three-point marksmen misfired badly in the elimination game as the Spurs embarrassed them by 39 points in Houston, despite playing without Kawhi Leonard and Tony Parker. A second-round ouster raises the age-old question of whether a team that so heavily emphasizes offense over defense can ever be a serious threat to the NBA title.
2. How do the Rockets get better?
The Rockets shipped this year’s first-round draft pick to the Lakers in a deadline deal for Lou Williams, and their second-rounder belongs to the Knicks from a 2015 trade. They own Denver’s second-round pick at No. 43 and Portland’s at No. 45, but it’s hard to find someone who can contribute right away at that point in the draft.
Free agency options will also be limited, as the Rockets lack real cap space. The good news is nine of their top 10 players are under contract next season, with Harden secured for the next two years and Anderson and Gordon for the next three. However, any significant personnel moves this summer will probably have to come through trades. GM Daryl Morey pledged this week to “keep improving our roster,” saying he doesn’t view the champion Warriors as unbeatable.
3. Will Nene be back?
The one member of the rotation headed for free agency is veteran center Nene. The Rockets signed him with their room exception last summer, getting valuable interior help for the bargain price of $2.898MM. Nene became a dependable backup, averaging 9.1 PPG in 17.9 MPG over 67 games and posting his best production per 36 minutes since 2011/12.
Nene will turn 35 before next season opens, and it’s hard to picture a better situation at this stage of his career. Look for him to re-sign in Houston, probably with a modest raise.
4. How many extensions will get handed out?
The Rockets knew they had decisions to make this summer on Clint Capela and Trevor Ariza, but changes in the new collective bargaining agreement mean Williams, Patrick Beverley and Montrezl Harrell with be eligible for extensions as well.
Beverley can receive $31MM over three years in a new contract that would start with 2019/20. That represents a nice increase for a player who will be paid $10.5MM total over the next two seasons, but he will turn 31 before that contract kicks in, so the Rockets have to consider whether it’s a wise investment. Williams, who is two years older, can get $39MM over four years, starting with 2018/19. Capela, entering his fourth season, can be extended for four years at up to 25% of the salary cap for ’18/19.
5. Should they go over the cap or under?
Being so close to the cap line gives the Rockets a lot of flexibility heading into the summer. They could create up some extra room by renouncing all their cap holds and non-guaranteed deals, but that would mean giving up Nene and would still give them only about $12MM to work with, along with a room mid-level exception worth $4.2MM.
If Houston decides to operate over the cap, it would have two exceptions available in the amounts of $8.4MM and $3.1MM. That’s enough for a couple of small roster tweaks, but likely wouldn’t be enough for a real difference maker.
The Rockets are fully committed to their style of play, from management to the coaching staff to their superstar to their roster decisions over the past year. There’s no turning back now, so look for any personnel moves this summer to set up another record-setting year of bombing away from behind the three-point line.
Here’s where things currently stand for the Rockets financially:
Guaranteed Salary
- James Harden ($28,299,399)
- Ryan Anderson ($19,578,455)
- Eric Gordon ($12,943,020)
- Trevor Ariza ($7,420,912)
- Lou Williams ($7,000,000)
- Patrick Beverley ($5,513,514)
- Clint Capela ($2,334,528)
- Sam Dekker ($1,794,600)
- Montrezl Harrell ($1,471,382)
- Chinanu Onuaku ($1,312,611)
- Total: $87,668,421
Player Options
- None
Team Options
- None
Non-Guaranteed Salary
- Kyle Wiltjer ($1,312,611)1
- Isaiah Taylor ($1,312,611)
- Total: $2,625,222
Restricted Free Agents
- Bobby Brown ($1,724,305 qualifying offer / $1,724,305 cap hold)
- Troy Williams ($1,512,611 qualifying offer / $1,512,611 cap hold)
- Total: $3,236,916
Cap Holds
- Nene ($3,477,600)
- Total: $3,477,600
Projected Salary Cap: $101,000,000
Maximum Cap Room: $11,700,349
- With more than $87MM on their 2017/18 cap in the form of guaranteed salaries, the Rockets would have a team salary of $89,299,651 if they added a couple cap charges for empty roster spots to that total. That would give the club about $11.7MM in cap room, which isn’t much more than what the mid-level exception is expected to be worth. In order to clear out additional space, a trade would be necessary.
Footnotes:
- Wiltjer’s salary becomes fully guaranteed after August 1.
Salary information from Basketball Insiders and The Vertical was used in the creation of this post. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
rockets will never advance into the playoffs where they want if their head coach and best player REFUSE to enforce defense.