Five Key Offseason Questions: Orlando Magic

High lottery picks don’t always guarantee success. The Orlando Magic can attest to that. The Magic had a top-five pick in three consecutive drafts, starting in 2013, and failed to come away with a franchise player.

Last season, Orlando tried a different approach, packaging the No. 11 overall pick in a trade with the Thunder to acquire Serge Ibaka, who was entering his walk year. When their season fell apart once again, the Magic ended up dealing Ibaka to the Raptors. Orlando finished 29-53 during Frank Vogel’s first season as head coach with the franchise, a six-game slide from the 2015/16 campaign. Now under new management, the Magic will try to snap their streak of five consecutive losing seasons.

Here are five key questions for the Magic as they enter this offseason:

1. Who should they take with the No. 6 pick in the draft?

It’s generally believed that there’s a drop-off after the first five players come off the board on Thursday. Just the Magic’s luck, they have the sixth pick.

If Markelle Fultz, Lonzo Ball, Josh Jackson, De’Aaron Fox and Jayson Tatum are all gone by the time the Magic’s turn comes up — a pretty safe assumption — they’ll have to strike gold with a less-heralded prospect.

The team’s newly-hired decision-makers, President of Basketball Operations Jeff Weltman and GM John Hammond, have some interesting options and will probably settle on the one with the highest ceiling. Florida State forward Jonathan Isaac could be that guy. His length and ability to guard multiple positions would boost the team’s defense and he has the range to step out and make 3-pointers.

Arizona’s Lauri Markkanen and Kentucky’s Malik Monk would be safer options. Markkanen is a classic stretch four — he made 42% of his 3-point attempts during his lone college season. Monk, a shooting guard, could emerge as the No. 1 scoring option on a team that needs one.

2. Should the Magic offer extensions to Aaron Gordon and Elfrid Payton?

Payton’s numbers have steadily improved through his first three seasons. He averaged 12.8 PPG, 4.7 RPG and 6.5 APG with an above-average 17.25 PER this past season. But it would be surprising if Payton received a serious extension offer. Payton hasn’t convinced anyone that he can be the floor leader for a contending team and he’s a poor three-point shooter, a very big hole in his game. It’s awfully tough to give big money to a point guard who can’t shoot from outside, unless he’s an elite passer.

Gordon is a tougher call. His scoring totals jumped after Ibaka was dealt to Toronto and he was able to slide to his natural power forward position. He averaged 15.8 PPG in March and 19.0 PPG in April. Like Payton though, he’s not adept at shooting three-pointers and he needs to become a better rebounder. It’s likely the new regime will take a wait-and-see approach on Gordon, assuming they don’t deal him.

3. What is the best way for the new regime to upgrade the roster?

Make trades. The Magic won’t be able to acquire a top-level free agent. Not only do they lack the cap room (a max of about $15.7MM to spend), but quality players aren’t going to sign on with a franchise that has become a perennial loser, no matter how nice the Orlando weather is in the winter. The giant contract handed to Bismack Biyombo last season will limit any free agent spending to depth-related causes.

Gordon is the player most likely to be dealt, mainly because he’s a starter still working on his rookie deal. Ideally, Orlando would package him with one of their more onerous contracts such as Biyombo’s or D.J. Augustin‘s. Nikola Vucevic could draw some interest around the league — he’s a solid scorer and rebounder with a reasonable contract (two years, $25MM remaining).

The Magic need more versatile defenders and shooters. They were a woeful perimeter-shooting team last season.

4. What should the Magic do with their other picks?

Orlando has a pair of first-round rounders, with the No. 25 pick (courtesy of the Raptors) to go along with their lottery selection. They also have two high second-rounders (Nos. 33 and 35).

It’s a good bet that Weltman will trade at least one of these picks. Don’t be surprised if the Magic move the late first-rounder and one of the second-rounders to move up in the first round. Orlando has needs all over the board and could probably find another rotation piece with an extra pick in the top 20.

The Magic could also go the draft-and-stash route with at least one of the picks.

5. Should the Magic try to re-sign unrestricted free agent Jodie Meeks?

It depends on what they do with their lottery pick. If they select Monk, then there would be no need for Meeks with Evan Fournier and Monk at the shooting guard spot.

If they draft a forward, or perhaps even a point guard, then bringing back Meeks would make some sense. Meeks can deliver shooting off the bench and his injury history will probably limit his options in the open market. Meeks is a career 37.6% shooter from long range and made 40.9% of his three-point tries last season.

Here’s where things currently stand for the Magic financially:

Guaranteed Salary

• Bismack Biyombo ($17,000,000)
• Evan Fournier ($17,000,000)
• Nikola Vucevic ($12,250,000)
• Terrence Ross ($10,500,000)
• D.J. Augustin ($7,250,000)
• Aaron Gordon ($5,504,420)
• Mario Hezonja ($4,078,320)
• Elfrid Payton ($3,332,340)
• C.J. Watson ($1,000,000) — Partial guarantee. Non-guaranteed portion noted below.¹
• Total: $77,915,080

Player Options

• None

Team Options

• None

Non-Guaranteed Salary

• C.J. Watson ($4,000,000) — Partial guarantee. Guaranteed portion noted above.¹
• Patricio Garino ($1,312,611)
• Marcus Georges-Hunt ($1,312,611)
• Stephen Zimmerman ($1,312,611)²
• Total: $7,937,833
  

Restricted Free Agents

• Damjan Rudez ($1,724,305 qualifying offer / $1,724,305 cap hold)
• Total: $1,724,305
  

Cap Holds

• Jeff Green ($18,000,000)
• Jodie Meeks ($12,426,000)
• No. 6 overall pick ($4,186,320)
• No. 25 overall pick ($1,516,200)
• Total: $36,128,520

Trade Exceptions

• Serge Ibaka TPE ($2,250,000) — Expires 2/14/18

Projected Salary Cap: $101,000,000

Maximum Cap Room: $15,751,170

• Orlando’s eight guaranteed salaries, cap holds for two first-round picks, and cap charges for two empty roster spots total $85,248,830 in team salary. The Magic aren’t likely to waive all their non-guaranteed players, but they don’t have any free agents they badly needs to bring back, so renouncing those FAs and getting close to their maximum cap room is possible.

Footnotes:

1. Watson’s salary becomes fully guaranteed after July 10.
2. Zimmerman’s salary becomes fully guaranteed after July 6.

Salary information from Basketball Insiders and The Vertical was used in the creation of this post.