Five Key Offseason Questions: Phoenix Suns

The Suns showed only modest improvement in their first full season under coach Earl Watson, going from 23 wins to 24. There are reasons to hope for a brighter future, but the Phoenix front office has a lot of work to do on a roster stocked with a combination of very young and very old players, with little in between.

Here are five key questions facing the Suns as that project begins:

1. Anybody need an extra guard?

Devin Booker‘s path to stardom was shorter than anyone expected, and he punctuated his rise to the NBA elite with a 70-point barrage at Boston in March. The second-year guard has been a starter since early in his rookie season and led the Suns in scoring this year at 22.1 points per game. However, his performance has made Brandon Knight expandable, and Knight hasn’t handled it well. He didn’t appear in a single game after the All-Star break and told the team when asked to play in March that back spasms were preventing him from taking the court.

Knight still has three seasons and nearly $43.9MM on a contract he signed in 2015 before the Suns realized what they had in Booker. It won’t be easy to unload a deal of that size, especially given Knight’s reduced production last year. On the other hand, he’s only 25 and has a history of being an explosive scorer, so there may be takers if the Suns don’t expect much in return. A strong first season from Tyler Ulis makes Knight even more expendable.

Another option is dealing Eric Bledsoe, a productive but injury-prone talent. Bledsoe, 27, will be the Suns’ highest-paid player next season ($14.5MM) and in 2018/19 ($15MM) and would probably fetch a nice collection of assets to help with the team’s youth movement.

2. Are the Suns happy with the fourth pick?

This weekend’s draft shakeup may not be the only major move in the top five. According to ESPN’s Chad Ford, the Suns have talked to the Lakers and Celtics about moving up to draft UCLA point guard Lonzo Ball or Kansas forward Josh Jackson (though Phoenix radio host John Gambadoro said there haven’t been talks between the Suns and Celtics about the No. 3 pick).

If the Suns don’t trade up and Ball and Jackson don’t slip to No. 4, they can either field offers from teams that want De’Aaron Fox or just take Jayson Tatum or Jonathan Isaac. Tatum is a ready-made scorer who could fill the small forward position for the next decade. Isaac has steadily risen up draft boards and has the size and skill to handle either forward position.

3. What about the two power forwards the Suns drafted last year?

The Suns swung a deal with Sacramento in 2016 to get a second lottery pick, which brought both Marquese Chriss and Dragan Bender to Phoenix. Chriss had the greater impact in his rookie year, appearing in all 82 games, starting 75, and averaging 9.2 points per night. Bender faced a tougher transition, averaging just 13.3 minutes and 3.4 points per game, and missing a chunk of the season with an ankle injury.

Phoenix has the luxury of being patient with both players, but drafting a forward this year could impact playing time, especially for Bender, and make at least one of them expendable somewhere down the road.

4. What are all these old guys doing here?

The Suns posted the worst record in the Western Conference and the second-worst mark in the entire NBA. That’s not a situation in which minutes and valuable cap room should be devoted to two 34-year-olds in Tyson Chandler and Leandro Barbosa and a 31-year-old Jared Dudley. Ronnie Price, 33, also spent some time on the roster.

Chandler, who will turn 35 before next season starts, would seem much more at home on a contender. However, he still has a hefty contract that pays him $13MM next year and $13.585MM in 2018/19, making teams reluctant to deal for him. Chandler says he enjoys being a mentor for young players, but he’s still seeing plenty of playing time, appearing in 47 games this season and averaging nearly 28 minutes per night.

Barbosa, who chose the Suns in free agency last summer, is due to make $4MM next season, but only $500K is guaranteed before July 3rd, so his days in Phoenix may be numbered. Dudley, another 2016 free agent signing, is under contract for more than $19.5MM over the next two seasons.

5. How long before the Suns contend again?

The best strategy for Phoenix is to keep adding talent through the draft. Booker is a legitimate building block, and Chriss appears to be as well. Alex Len and Alan Williams, both 24, are two free agent big men who could be retained without breaking the bank.

The Suns only have about $7MM in available cap room, although that number could rise closer to $25MM if they part ways with Barbosa and Len. If Phoenix does try to play the free agent market this summer, it should skip the over-30 demographic and concentrate on players more in line with its youth movement.

There’s no need to rush things. The top seven teams in the West look like long-term playoff regulars, and the ones that contended for the eighth spot are all further along in development than Phoenix. If the Suns continue to add young talent, the playoffs could be a realistic goal by the end of the decade.

Phoenix is still paying for its past mistakes. Management apparently believed the team was closer to contention than it really was and overpaid for Knight, Chandler, Dudley and Barbosa. Phoenix needs to cut loose as many of those contracts as possible this summer and fully commit to rebuilding.

Here’s where things currently stand for the Suns financially:

Guaranteed Salary

• Eric Bledsoe ($14,500,000)
• Brandon Knight ($13,618,750)
• Tyson Chandler ($13,000,000)
• Jared Dudley ($10,000,000)
• Dragan Bender ($4,468,800)
• T.J. Warren ($3,152,931)
• Marquese Chriss ($3,073,800)
• Devin Booker ($2,319,360)
• Tyler Ulis ($1,312,611)
• Leandro Barbosa ($500,000) — Partial guarantee. Non-guaranteed portion noted below.¹
• Total: $65,946,252

Player Options

• None

Team Options

• None

Non-Guaranteed Salary

• Leandro Barbosa ($3,500,000) — Partial guarantee. Guaranteed portion noted above.¹
• Elijah Millsap ($1,524,305)
• Derrick Jones ($1,312,611)
• Total: $6,336,916
  

Restricted Free Agents

• Alex Len ($4,187,598 qualifying offer / $12,059,053 cap hold)
• Alan Williams ($1,671,382 qualifying offer / $1,671,382 cap hold)
• Total: $13,730,435

Cap Holds

• No. 4 overall pick ($5,090,040)
• Ronnie Price ($1,471,382)
• Total: $6,561,422

Projected Salary Cap: $101,000,000

Maximum Cap Room: $28,332,478

• The Suns have nine players on fully guaranteed contracts. If they were to waive their non-guaranteed players and renounce all their free agents, they’d also have to account for cap holds for their first-round pick and two empty roster spots, creating a total team salary of $72,667,522. That would be enough room to make a play for a maximum-salary restricted free agent, but not enough to fit a max contract for a veteran with seven or more years of NBA experience.

Footnotes:

1. Barbosa’s salary becomes fully guaranteed after July 3

Salary information from Basketball Insiders and The Vertical was used in the creation of this post. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.