After ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski first reported last week that the NBA was mulling the idea of draft lottery reform, we rounded up the highlights of the proposal. Among those highlights: Teams would be able to drop as many as four spots in the lottery (ie. from first to fifth), and the odds for the top three teams to land the No. 1 pick would be reduced and flattened, giving each of those clubs equal odds.
In a piece for USA Today, Jeff Zillgitt picks up where Wojnarowski left off, filling in a few more details on those main elements of the NBA’s proposal:
- The three highest lottery seeds would each have a 14% chance of landing the first overall pick. Previously those teams had odds of 25%, 19.9%, and 15.6% respectively.
- The odds for the remaining lottery teams to land the No. 1 pick would decrease smoothly, with each team’s odds increasing by an extra 1-2% over the old system.
- We could deduce this from Wojnarowski’s report, but Zillgitt confirms that the number of picks determined by the lottery would increase from three to four, which would allow – for example – the No. 1 lottery seed to end up with the No. 5 overall pick.
- The new system would be implemented for the 2019 NBA draft, giving teams time to plan and prepare accordingly.
While NBA team owners may vote on the proposal at the league’s Board of Governors meeting later this month, it’s not considered a slam dunk. Back in 2014, NBA owners voted on a similar plan, and while 17 owners voted in favor of that proposal, a three-quarters majority is required to pass it.
As Zillgitt details, some small- and mid-market teams believe this proposal would hurt their chances of landing a franchise-altering star through the draft — those clubs already feel that their odds of landing that sort of player in free agency are slim. However, the NBA is hopeful that this solution would eliminate the notion that a franchise has to be the worst of the worst in order to truly rebuild and improve.
……giving teams one more year to plan accordingly, and one last chance to tank big time.
Those small Market teams that are whining need to look at the Golden State Warriors.
It’s all about ownership. They sucked for 40 years. New owners came in, hired the right people, good management, good coaching and GM, and players want to play there.
They drafted the right guys at number 5 and number 11, at number 31. Quit whining and run your team well.
The warriors were a laughingstock for years and years… trust me I’m a fan.
If you Google Bill Simmons piece regarding “25-year history 60 reasons for hating the Warriors” or something like that, great article tells you the crap we went through for so long.
Here’s a few reasons small-market teams or perpetual crummy teams use as excuses…. AND these all USED TO apply to the Warriors until the new owners bought them:
-We are not a low-tax state like Texas or Florida.
-Our owner lets are free agents and good young players walk because he won’t pay them.
-We have bad management.
-Our arena is old and outdated (Oracle is still old and outdated, but the Warriors are working on that.)
-We never have a winning team so players won’t come.
-We can’t get the high draft pick or make the playoffs because we’re never good enough, or bad enough for those. I’ve got news for you, having a high draft pick doesn’t guarantee a great player. You just need to draft well where you’re at !! See the Spurs, Warriors, many many examples. Warriors have had top 10 draft picks for years! Todd Fuller Patrick O’Bryant, Ike Diogu…you’ve seen me mention this list over and over and over again here.
Bottom line is this, there’s no excuse, you just got to run your team well, be a good owner and hire the right people ….which includes Scouts and then drafting well.
The counter argument would be that the only reason the Spurs are seen as one of the best run organizations in the league is because they originally tanked for Duncan. Plus, the Warriors were extremely lucky. What if the Knicks, who loved Curry, had the 6th instead of 8th pick? What if the Spurs succeeded in trading up ahead of GSW for Klay Thompson? I know these are what ifs from the past but scenarios like those could happen in the future.
That’s just me playing Devil’s advocate and why I’m doubtful of lottery reform due to the owners not agreeing on it
Yes you’re right about Duncan and even David Robinson, but they sure drafted well and scouted well during this 20 year run.
Tony Parker second round, Bruce Bowen second round, Danny Green undrafted? Kawai mid 1st, Ginobili second round, and on it goes.
Spurs- great ownership great management great scouting great coaching. Guys want to play there.
“they originally tanked for Duncan”… That’s not quite how it went.
“Robinson missed the first month of the season due to a back injury. He returned in December, but played only six games before a broken foot sidelined him for the rest of the season. Elliott also missed more than half the season due to injury. Without Robinson and Elliott, the Spurs were a rudderless team. The lone bright spot was Wilkins, leading the team in scoring with an average of 18.2 ppg. The Spurs ended the season with a 20–62 record, the worst in franchise history—and to date, the last time they have missed the playoffs. Hill only lasted 18 games as coach that season, eventually being fired and replaced by general manager Gregg Popovich, who had also served a stint under Brown as an assistant coach.”
Thanks for the info. I thought Robinson was the only one who was injured and that the Spurs then just tanked knowing they wouldn’t make the playoffs anyway
Why not the team with the best record that doesn’t make the playoffs get first pick
Because then the bad teams that are actually bad not just tanking will never get the players they need to become a winning team.
If the NBA wants to eliminate tanking, it should adopt the international soccer draft format. Draft position is determined by a revolving schedule instead of wins and losses.
I say break it down in tiers.
Do teams with the 1-5 worst records have the best chance at number 1, then 6-10, 11-15, 16-20, 21-25, 26-30 with the odds at number 1 decreasing by tier
I say any team that doesn’t make the playoffs should have an equal chance at the number 1 pick. It eliminates tanking completely. Who cares if a terrible team stays terrible. If you have a good system and draft decently at whatever position you receive you should be fine. If anything this gives everyone a fair chance and allows the NBA to be purely competitive