Following the Grizzlies’ win over Detroit and the Suns‘ loss to Golden State on Sunday, Phoenix has locked up the NBA’s worst record for the 2017/18 season. As our Reverse Standings show, the Suns’ 2.5-game lead for that top lottery spot ensures that they’ll head into next month’s draft lottery with a 25% chance of landing the No. 1 overall pick. They’ll also be guaranteed a top-four pick in the 2018 draft.
The Suns will be hoping for better luck this year than they had last spring — after finishing with the NBA’s second-worst record in 2016/17, Phoenix slipped out of the top three of last year’s lottery, ultimately landing Josh Jackson with the fourth overall pick. This time around, the Suns will have a 64.3% chance of securing a top-three selection.
Although the Grizzlies are no longer in the running for the No. 1 spot in the lottery, they look like a good bet to wind up at No. 2 in the lottery standings — they have a 22-58 record, putting them 1.5 games ahead of the 24-57 Hawks and Mavericks with three days left in the season.
Unlike in the NBA’s playoff race, where ties are broken based on each team’s performance in certain regular-season matchups, lottery ties are broken via coin flips. If Atlanta and Dallas ultimately finish tied for third in the lottery standings, they’d receive nearly equal odds of landing the No. 1 pick. Rather than 15.6% for third place and 11.9% for fourth, one team would have a 13.8% chance for the No. 1 pick and one team would have a 13.7% chance. In that scenario, the winner of a coin flip would receive the slightly higher lottery odds, and would get the higher draft pick if neither team ends up in the top three.
2018 represents the last year that the NBA will use its current draft lottery format. Starting in 2019, the lottery odds will be smoothed out, reducing the “top” teams’ chances of landing the highest picks. If the Suns had finished No. 1 in the lottery standings under that new format, they’d only have a 14% chance at the No. 1 pick – plus a 40% chance at a top-three selection – and could have fallen as low as No. 5.
The Suns should move the pick.
Move it for what?
I would move it along with Jackson for Kawhi. Jackson deserves a better scenery where he can be featured, seems like Phoenix is sold on building with Booker and Jackson deserves the chance at being a franchise player.
Why would the suns trade Jackson if he’s going to be a franchise player for a player that is hurt and refusing to play. I don’t get how that makes sense for the suns.
He just doesn’t want to be coached by Pop anymore.
If he won’t play or pop why would he play for whatever coach the suns have next year. You also didn’t asset why if the Jackson is going to be a franchise level player why the suns would trade him and the best pick in the draft for a head case that can’t be coached by one of the greatest to ever do it.
Geez the Hawks can’t even tank right lol…they keep winning games and now the Minnesota Timberwolves may not make the playoffs which will cost the Hawks another 1st round pick
The Hawks can still get a top 10 pick and pick a formidable player. Prince,Dennis, and Collins are locked in as the core, if they can draft Bamba they could be really scary next season.
Yea adding Bamba will put them in dreaded mediocrity. At full potential they may be a 6 seed in the east.
It’s all about developing. Who says they would have to be a finished product by next season? The defensive anchor he would be on defense for the Hawks would be surreal, not to mention the athlecticism between him and Collins.
Yeah but tanking and just getting a top 10 pick is not part of why you tank. Top 3 is a must and especially this year since they’re changing ping pong ball % next year.
With the #4 pick, the Suns select…
There’s like a top 13 prospects, so the loser teams can relax.