The Sixers have made it quite clear that they’re ready and willing to accelerate their timeline and make a serious bid for an elite free agent. That’s ambitious and admirable, but to assume that a player like LeBron James is around the corner is like buying lottery tickets to fund your retirement.
It’s commendable that the Sixers have their sights set on big fish, but let’s assume that the King decides to re-up in Cleveland and Philly is forced to see their original process through to the end. Sure, Ben Simmons and Joel Embiid weren’t enough to win the East in their first ever playoff appearances, that doesn’t mean the organization is in any less of an enviable place than they were a month ago.
In the event that Philly strikes out in their pursuit of James, they’d be wise to continue what they set out to do in 2017/18, surround their obnoxiously promising young core with solid veterans capable of helping them flourish into superstars.
J.J. Redick, SG, 34 (Down) – Signed to a one-year, $23MM deal in 2017
The idea to overpay Redick for a one-year contract last summer was brilliant. The team was able to complement its young core with a capable veteran scorer while getting a feel for what the next phase of the process was. It turns out the next phase involves winning, though, which involves paying to keep the club’s young core in tact. Since July, when Redick signed his monster contract, the Sixers have extended both Embiid and Robert Covington, eating up $35MM in salary that they didn’t need to worry about this time last. While the club still has piles of cap room for 2018/19, Philadelphia may look to lock Redick down at a discounted rate now that the roster is looking less and less like a science fair project and more like a contender.
Marco Belinelli, SG, 32 (Up) – Signed to a one-year deal in 2018
Belinelli landed with the Hawks last offseason, a hired gun on a short-term deal, and eventually became one of the buyout market’s most desirable pieces. The Sixers prudently added the shooting guard in February and gave him a months-long opportunity to show what he’s capable of contributing to a contender. Belinelli is still young enough to command a contract in the $8MM-$10MM range and may be able to parlay his success in Philly into a longer-term contract. That could very well put him right back in a Sixers uniform.
Ersan Ilyasova, PF, 31 (Down) – Signed to a one-year deal in 2018
There are few players who fill an unheralded role more brilliantly than Ilyasova but that hasn’t helped him find any stability since getting traded away from Milwaukee in 2015. In the three years since, the veteran has plied his scrappy trade for five franchises, proving at every step along the way that he’s a solid rotation piece. Unfortunately for Ilyasova, the contenders that he could benefit most tend to be the ones with the least amount of cap space, so he may need to take a discount if he wants to win.
Amir Johnson, C, 31 (Down) – Signed to a one-year, $11MM deal in 2017
The Sixers are in a drastically different place than they were when they inked Johnson, a reliable if unexciting veteran, to an eight-digit contract. For one, the win-now Eastern Conference contender need not get creative just to meet the league’s salary floor and they also don’t need to be quite as cautious when it comes to Embiid insurance. If Johnson wants to remain in Philadelphia – or on any serious playoff team – he may need to take a significant pay cut.
Richaun Holmes, C, 24 (Up) – Signed to a four-year, $5MM deal in 2015
Thanks to Embiid’s reasonably healthy season, the Sixers didn’t utilize Holmes as much as they did the year prior but that doesn’t mean that they aren’t still high on the athletic big man’s long-term role with the franchise. Picking up his $1.6MM team option is a no-brainer.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
At this point, I’d pass on all of the listed players above and focus on primary FA’s or potential deals. They’re close, and with the right move(s), will be dancing for the foreseeable future against the Celts.
So JJ is most likely your MLE. Marco and Ersan would have to accept veteran min. contracts.
Lock up Holmes for the future. Redick is a UFA but can be treated as an RFA– wait and match. Match for all of the above– Amir may be cheap.
Trust The Process– don’t bail now– unless Lebron wants in, or CPaul will do less than max. Forget Kawhi, PGeorge.
Why lock up Holmes hes a cheap reserve? They have 6 draft picks 2 1sts and 4 2nds. T.J., Holmes, Anderson, and Bayless all gone next year and will be replaced via trade or draft picks.
Bolden replaces Amir Johnson year.
JJ, Marco, and Ersan will sit back and wait until LBJ or PG13 are signed before they sign. Then the Sixers can use the Mid Level Exception on one of them and Veteran Min contracts on the other 2.
One thing people dont realize about CP3, he was instrumental in setting up the supermax and he basically blew up his big contract to go to Houston.
PG13 and LBJ only cost $ why would you not go after PG13 if LBJ doesnt come? Makes no sense. Kawhi trade likely a Draft Day deal, only gets done if they have knowledge that LBJ will sign.
I doubt PG13 IS coming. His choice is OKC if he wants a contender, LA if he wants homecourt. If he takes his time deciding he could tie up Philly’s decisionmaking.
It’s unlikely sixers use a 1st on a center and it usually takes more than 4 2nd-rounders to find quality. Of course the sixers found holmes, so they could find another holmes.
But the sixers should not put off winning, and they say they’re not. Holmes can fill in now, he’s entering his prime– but he will be UFA & leaving next year like Oconnell.
I agree sitting back on the FAs. I see you did a lot of work on the numbers!
If they end up keeping their 6 picks, they’ll find replacements. If the make a trade tho for a Kawhi for someone of that ilk, they’ve already gotten word that LBJ or PG13 are inbound.
Where they slot right now they could go Sexton or Miles Bridges. They won’t go Center in the first you’re right. Maybe they draft Wagner in the 2nd from Michigan. Would be interesting to see what they do if they land the #1 overall pick. I’ve been a huge proponent of Michael Porter Jr. but his stock has slipped 5 to 6 slots due to the injury.
I’m nervous about Lebron + Kawhi making plans. Sixers could pull it off. James can’t be thrilled with how often he has had to take it to the rim this year.
LeBrons people are scheming already. I am skeptical about Kawhi being traded. That supermax will be hard to pass up. You can get along with anyone for 240M. And if they miss out this year they can do it again next year.
Tbh I don’t want Lebron for as much of a beast he can be, he can also be a distraction and is going to want touches that other guys need. You need a seamless fit here a guy who doesn’t need the ball all the time but can score at will when needed and play good defense. Also should be a good locker room guy as well. Hopefully Fultz develops this offseason and Simmons works on that shot and we got something even more special than before.
What you saw in both series, they were extremely sloppy down the stretch in games even when they won. They need a leader to calm it down that can also handle the ball, handle the pressure. No one on the current roster can do that, Yet.
This is everything. Close out fourth quarters and it’s a wrap. Yes there are shooters on that team, but when it comes down to it, nobody can take over. Simmons shows flashes when he drives to the lane but he has pass first on his mind. Embiid disappears and forgets how to box out. All this will come in time, but if you can get that once in a lifetime player how do you say no? Now what if he pulls a charade and drags it out and we miss on everyone? They need him to figure it out so we don’t miss out on the next best. If DeRozan gets put on the block and they don’t get LBJ, is that something they look into? Probably the same asking price for Kawhi.
Why trade for DeRozan? He’s not clutch, has anxiety issues. If they miss on LBJ, PG13, and CP3 I don’t see them trading for anyone with a LT contract. They have 70M and 64M allocated for 2018 and 2019 FA periods.
2019 FA Class (with opt-outs):
Top Tier: LBJ (always signs a 1+1), Durant (if he signs a 1+1), Klay (if not extended), Kawhi, Kyrie, Jimmy Butler
Next Guys: Milsap, DJ, Bledsoe, Tobias Harris, Kemba Walker, Mirotic, Melo, Valancuianas, Middleton
Sixers can facilitate a trade b/c they are under the cap. As long as any trade or signing they make keeps them with 35.5M cap space in 2019 do it.
You can include T.J., Holmes, Anderson, TLC in any of the trades b/c they have 6 draft picks this year to fill out their bench b/c they can go over the cap to retain their own guys or use MLE or veteran min contracts.
Potential Tax Relief Trades:
1. Kemba Walker + Lamb OR Kemba Walker + Dwight Howard for Bayless & McConnell & a couple 2nd round picks.
2. Paul Milsap + a future 1st for Bayless & Anderson.
3. Melo + future 1st for Bayless & Anderson.
4. Tobias Harris for Sixers 1st.
5. Gortat + a future 1st for bag of balls.
They could also facilitate 3-way deals that get them future assets.
Tyson Chandler, Wesley Matthews, Robin Lopez, Faried, Vucevic, Lin, Rivers, Chandler are all guys that other teams may not want if they are trading with their respective teams. As long as their is some USE for the guy or they can get a future pick the Sixers should be active on some level.
Future 1sts will be vital to fill out their roster once they become cap strapped.
Sounds like you should sign IT on a 1yr flyer to see how that works. He will be cheap and looked like a good presence on a young Laker team.
Possible. After he realizes he’s not getting a max deal.
He had hip surgery in March. Not worth much more than a flier at this point.
They are pursuing high-end players, the MVP has had the highest total of Box +/-, Win Shares, and VORP for over a decade. Ben Simmons ranked 15th RoCo 38th, Embiid 41st, Dario 51st . I’ve listed the total next to each player.
Here’s the offseason shopping list:
Top FAs:
1. LBJ – 32.5 Value
1A. Durant – 20.5 Value
2. CP3 – 21.6 Value
4. PG13 – 14.8 Value
Top Trade Targets:
1. Kawhi Leonard – 20M – 27.7 Value (2016-17)
2. Damian Lillard – 27.9M – 25.2 Value
3. Kemba Walker – 12M – 15.3 Value
4. Kyle Lowry – 31M – 21.1 Value
5. DeRozan – 27.7M – 14 Value
6. McCollum – 25.7M – 8.8 Value
7. Evan Fournier – 17M – 3.6 Value
Then RFAs (unlikely to sign):
1. Gordon – 3.9 Value
2. Parker – 5.2 Value (2016-17)
Then a barrage of Mid-Level guys they’d give 1-year deals:
1. Darren Collison – 11.9 Value
2. Tyreke Evans – 10.1 Value
3. Will Barton – 9.2 Value
4. Trevor Ariza – 8.8 Value
5. Redick – 7.7 Value
6. Ilyasova – 5.0 Value
7. Belinelli – 2.7 Value
Looking at the trades. Lillard, Lowry, DeRozan, and McCollum will require 3 players just to facilitate the trade and keep enough cap space to sign a top FA – RoCo 10.4M, Bayless 8.5M, and Fultz 8.3M = 27.2 whereas Kawhi, Kemba, and Fournier will only require 1 or 2 players to facilitate the money.
If I’m surrendering Fultz, it would only be for Lillard. I do not see Fultz being crucial to a package for Kawhi. He is on a 1 year deal, off of injury, and clearly wants out. Spurs don’t have any leverage. If they super-max extend him he can’t be traded until next year.
Signing 2 top FAs is a more difficult task. They would need to dump Bayless, RoCo, Anderson, and TLC. The most obvious teams to facilitate would be Chicago and Sacramento who can take both on due to cap space. But you’re basically giving away a 3&D guy for nothing. So I do think a LBJ/PG13 or LBJ/CP3 or PG13/CP3 pairing is unlikely. And CP3 isn’t coming here on his own.
They have 2 1st round picks and 4 second round picks this year as trade ammo.
Most Ideal Result:
LBJ/PG13 + Kawhi/Lillard/Walker
Something also to think about, a lot of people talk about Boston improving via trade and taking Kawhi away from the Sixers. It’s unlikely. If they keep Kyrie, Horford, and Hayward they have 26.81M in contracts for salary matching and are over the salary cap.
Contracts in 2018:
Anthony Davis – 25.4M
Kawhi: 20.1M
A package for Kawhi without Tatum and Rozier is – Brown, Morris, Yab, Ojeleye, Nader, Theis. Spurs can’t even keep all of those guys. And that only is 16.9M
A package that works for AD is every single player but Rozier.
I think they seriously think about trading Kyrie b/c he will opt out. Kyrie for Kawhi straight up actually isn’t terrible. Somehow NBA trade machine puts this as a -11 wins for the Celtics and a +10 wins for the Spurs lmfao.
Sixers fans:
Would you trade Fultz for Kemba Walker straight up?
I know that would be a high price but on Kembas 12mill contract, Lebron or PG13 could be added with ease (salary capwise). Walking into a starting lineup of Walker-Covington-add PG13 or Lebron-Simmons-Embid with Saric, Redick (hypothetically), McConnel, Anderson, and Holmes in support, would be incredibly attractive
Heck no! The Kemba trade is using the draft assets to facilitate them dumping MKG and William’s. Age is definitely a factor in trading for a guy with 1 year left that will need to be extended. Kawhi would be 27, Kemba 29. And Kawhi >>> Kemba. You’re giving up less in a Kemba trade. Mostly picks to whichever team is taking on salary.
Covington is over as a starter in Philly. Enough. A previously perceived bargain deal has become an overpaid 8-9th reserve. Better. Dump him altogether.
Lot of teams would take that contract. By the metrics hes been a top 10 defender in the league. He is only a league average 3pt shooter tho.