Five Key Offseason Questions: Cleveland Cavaliers

No team has had a more dramatic 2017/18 league year than the Cavaliers, who dealt with Kyrie Irving‘s trade request last offseason, underwent multiple roster overhauls, improbably made it back to the NBA Finals, and are now facing the prospect of losing LeBron James — again.

The Cavaliers’ comeback in the 2016 NBA Finals to erase a 3-1 deficit and knock off the 73-win Warriors earned James the right to leave on better terms this time around than he did in 2010, but the club would still prefer to have him stick around a little longer. His decision will ultimately be the catalyst that determines which direction the Cavs will go for the next several years.

Here are five key questions facing the franchise this summer:

1. So… what’s LeBron going to do?

The two best players in the NBA are eligible for free agency this summer, but Kevin Durant is a lock to re-sign with the Warriors, making LeBron’s decision the offseason’s most important subplot. At this point, his options have been discussed ad nauseam. The Lakers, Sixers, Celtics, Rockets, Clippers, Spurs, Heat, and even the Warriors look like potential threats to the Cavs, and that’s not taking into account any potential wild-card suitors that arise during his decision-making process.

I’ve already written at length about the various factors that will play a role in James’ decision, but even after endless speculation, it doesn’t feel like we’re any closer to figuring out where he’ll end up. Every potential landing spot has its pros and cons, which could work in Cleveland’s favor, forcing the future Hall-of-Famer to seriously consider the possibility of simply sticking with the Cavs rather than leaving for any number of imperfect options.

Still, it would be somewhat surprising if James re-upped with the Cavs. He accomplished what he set out to to do when he returned to the franchise in 2014, winning a title for his hometown team. From an on-court perspective, there are better opportunities out there for him. From a marketing and lifestyle perspective, moving to a bigger market like Los Angeles would make sense. It just seems like there’s too much working against the Cavs.

That doesn’t mean that a return to Cleveland is out of the question, but if I had to bet on James starting the 2018/19 season with either the Cavs or one of the NBA’s other 29 teams, I’d take the field.

2. What should the Cavaliers do with the No. 8 pick?

While it’s possible that James will no longer be a Cavalier at this time next month, the team can’t approach the offseason as if he’s already gone. By all accounts, LeBron has yet to make a final decision, so the Cavs’ moves in the next week or two could push him in one direction or the other.

That puts the Cavs in an incredibly tough spot with their lottery pick. If the club knew James would leave, it would make sense for the front office to target the player with the highest long-term ceiling at No. 8, in the hopes of identifying a franchise player for the post-LeBron era. With no assurances one way or the other, Cleveland will have to straddle the fence, finding a player who could play alongside James or who could develop and thrive on a new-look Cavs roster.

Of course, if the Cavs really want to make a strong pitch to James, packaging the No. 8 pick in a deal for another star would represent the all-in approach. Even if the club could find a workable trade for someone like Kemba Walker or Kawhi Leonard though, it would provide no guarantees on the LeBron front. Both Walker and Leonard are eligible for free agency in 2019 and aren’t well positioned to sign extensions before then, so it’s unlikely that acquiring one of them would prompt James to commit to more than one extra year in Cleveland.

Ultimately, the Cavs probably need to take the best player available at No. 8, regardless of that player’s fit, his ability to make an immediate impact, or his appeal to trade partners. If need be, the front office could always shop that player in July after finding out what James plans to do.

3. What would the roster look like if James returns?

Let’s assume that James announces he’ll stick with the Cavs, either opting into the final year of his contract or signing a longer-term pact. What could we reasonably expect the Cavs’ roster to look like in 2018/19?

General manager Koby Altman has already shown a willingness to make major changes to the roster on the fly during his first year on the job, and I imagine he’d look to take more big swings this offseason. The roster that finished the 2018/19 season probably isn’t going to knock off the Warriors anytime soon, but there are plenty of salvageable assets under team control.

George Hill and J.R. Smith will essentially be on expiring deals, given their limited guarantees in 2019/20, which could make them trade chips, albeit ones who would be used primarily for salary matching rather than ones who would have positive value. Love’s trade value should be higher, even if it’s not what it once was, and the Cavs would probably make an effort to flip him for an impact wing or center who would help fortify the defense.

This year’s No. 8 pick is the team’s best trade chip and could be a sweetener in any major deal. The Cavs don’t have their 2019 first-round pick, but could make their 2021 or 2023 first-rounders available if they get really aggressive. The club would probably like to keep young players like Larry Nance and Cedi Osman, but Ante Zizic could be another trade piece.

What would the end result ultimately look like? Maybe the Cavs could trade Hill, Smith, and the No. 8 pick for Walker and Nicolas Batum. Maybe they could move Love in a deal for a wing like Otto Porter or a center like DeAndre Jordan. A series of roster moves along those lines might make the team more interesting, but it’s not clear how much it would improve Cleveland’s ceiling.

4. What would the roster look like if James leaves?

Considering what the Cavs’ roster might look like without LeBron is fascinating. The front office has conveyed a desire to avoid a full-fledged rebuild, but the roster isn’t exactly packed with long-term building blocks. At the very least, the Cavs would probably have to undergo a retooling period, which would likely start with exploring the trade market for Love in an effort to acquire young players or draft picks.

The makeup of the Cavs’ roster without James would also hinge on how exactly he leaves Cleveland. If he decides he wants to join a team without the cap room necessary to sign him outright, a sign-and-trade deal is one possibility. Exercising his 2018/19 player option to clear the way for a standard trade is another. Either route could net the Cavs some assets, but they shouldn’t feel obliged to go out of their way to accommodate LeBron’s new team.

Losing LeBron for nothing would hurt, but the Cavs would at least move well below the tax line in that scenario, avoiding the league’s punitive repeater tax penalties. In any trade involving James, owner Dan Gilbert would have no interest in taking back overpriced, unwanted pieces that would push Cleveland back over that tax line, even if those pieces could help the Cavs return to the playoffs next season.

Despite having multiple overpriced veterans on their books at the moment, the Cavs actually have significant flexibility in the long term — currently, the club doesn’t have a single guaranteed dollar on its 2020/21 cap. If James leaves, the team will want to maintain that flexibility, only making long-term commitments if the investments are sound.

5. Will the Cavaliers sign Larry Nance Jr. to an extension?

Speaking of long-term investments, the Cavs have decisions to make on two young players this offseason, with Rodney Hood eligible for restricted free agency and Nance up for a rookie scale extension.

While I expect Cleveland to give Hood a qualifying offer, I’d be a little surprised if the club negotiates a new multiyear deal for him– the fourth-year shooting guard didn’t provide the sort of consistent scoring punch the Cavs were looking for after coming over from Utah at the trade deadline. If he doesn’t receive any great offers from rival teams, it’s possible Hood returns on a team-friendly contract, but otherwise I think the Cavs will let him move on.

Nance’s case is a more interesting one to monitor, even though he’ll remain under contract for next season whether or not the Cavs extend him this offseason. The team and player reportedly have mutual interest in a new agreement, and the timing could work out well for Cleveland — by the time a Nance extension would take effect, Love, Hill, and Smith could all be essentially off the Cavs’ cap, freeing up a ton of space.

The Cavs surrendered a first-round pick and took on Jordan Clarkson‘s contract in order to acquire Nance earlier this year. I’d expect the club to do all it can to lock him up at a reasonable rate in the coming months, perhaps making him the first player to receive a guarantee from the Cavs beyond 2020.

Here’s where things currently stand for the Cavaliers financially:

Guaranteed Salary

• Kevin Love ($24,119,025)
• George Hill ($19,000,000)
• Tristan Thompson ($17,469,565)
• J.R. Smith ($14,720,000)
• Jordan Clarkson ($12,500,000)
• Kyle Korver ($7,560,000)
• Cedi Osman ($2,775,000)
• Larry Nance Jr. ($2,272,391)
• Ante Zizic ($1,952,760)
• Total: $102,368,741
  

Player Options

• LeBron James ($35,607,968)
• Total: $35,607,968

Team Options

• Kendrick Perkins ($2,445,085)
• Total: $2,445,085

Non-Guaranteed Salary

• Okaro White ($1,544,951)¹
• Total: $1,544,951
  

Restricted Free Agents

• Rodney Hood ($3,472,887 qualifying offer / $7,160,592 cap hold): Bird rights
• Total: $7,160,592

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

• No. 8 overall pick ($4,033,884)
• Jose Calderon ($1,499,698): Non-Bird rights
• Dahntay Jones ($1,499,698): Early Bird rights
• James Jones ($1,499,698): Bird rights
• Jeff Green ($1,499,698): Non-Bird rights
• Shawn Marion ($1,499,698): Non-Bird rights
• Deron Williams ($1,499,698): Non-Bird rights
• Total: $13,032,072

Projected Salary Cap: $101,000,000

Projected Cap Room: None

• Even without taking James into consideration, the Cavaliers have $102MM+ in guaranteed salaries, nudging them over the projected $101MM cap. As such, there’s virtually no chance Cleveland will have cap room this summer.

Footnotes:

1. White’s salary becomes fully guaranteed after August 5.

Note: Rookie scale cap holds are estimates based on salary cap projections and could increase or decrease depending on where the cap lands.

Salary information from Basketball Insiders was used in the creation of this post. Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.