The Knicks’ 29-53 record in 2017/18 was technically the team’s worst mark of the last three years, but the season as a whole didn’t feel like the worst of those three. Because the Knicks entered the ’17/18 campaign with reduced expectations, finishing 24 games below .500 wasn’t a massive disappointment — it was expected.
Of course, these wouldn’t be the modern-day Knicks if there wasn’t at least some drama and heartbreak. Joakim Noah, exiled from the team after an altercation with head coach Jeff Hornacek, was responsible for much of the drama, while Kristaps Porzingis‘ ACL tear provided the heartbreak.
Assuming Porzingis can make a full recovery from that ACL tear, the injury may actually benefit the Knicks in the long term, since Porzingis’ long recovery will force the club to exercise patience in its rebuilding process. With David Fizdale assuming the reins from Hornacek, there’s some reason for optimism in New York, but the team will have several important decisions on its plate this offseason.
Here are five key questions facing the franchise this summer:
1. What’s going on at the center position?
For much of the season, we wrote about a logjam at the center spot on the Knicks’ depth chart. After a promising rookie season, Willy Hernangomez was out of the rotation, and the same was true of the highly-paid Noah, as Enes Kanter and Kyle O’Quinn played the majority of the minutes at the five.
Now, Hernangomez is a Hornet, Noah’s future with the franchise is uncertain, and Kanter and O’Quinn both have player option decisions to make for 2018/19, raising questions about who exactly will be manning the middle for the Knicks next season.
Let’s start with the player options. O’Quinn’s decision looks simple — he’ll opt out. At that point, it will be up to the Knicks how aggressively they want to try to keep him. O’Quinn figures to get a multiyear deal, and he’ll be in line for a raise over last year’s $4MM salary.
Kanter, meanwhile, has a slightly trickier decision on his option. Exercising it seems like the right move, since he won’t match his $18.6MM option salary on the open market. However, he could exceed that figure in terms of total salary on a multiyear contract, which is why he’s been talking about opting out. If Kanter were to pick up his option, it would reduce the number of decisions for the Knicks to make, but this situation remains very much up in the air.
On the Noah front, there has been talk about waiving him after September 1, when the team could keep his $18.53MM cap hit for 2018/19 on its books, stretching his 2019/20 cap charge ($19.3MM) across three seasons. By the start of September, the Knicks’ center situation will be clearer, so perhaps it will make sense to jettison Noah if the team has a couple other solid options at the position. But with a new head coach in place and no rush to clear cap room, it might be worth keeping Noah around to see if he can bounce back at all after a lost season.
2. Is the Knicks’ long-term point guard currently on the roster?
Having previously had a glut of talent at the center position, the Knicks now find themselves with several options at point guard. However, as was the case at the five, the point guard situation could become unsettled quickly. Emmanuel Mudiay and Trey Burke will both be eligible for free agency in 2019, and the Knicks seem increasingly convinced that Frank Ntilikina might be more effective off the ball.
Ntilikina’s role will be the most pressing question for the Knicks to address, since no player on the roster is under team control for longer than the 19-year-old — no matter where he plays, he’s a future building block.
There’s no question about which position former lottery picks Mudiay or Burke should be playing, but it remains to be seen whether they can be reliable long-term contributors for the Knicks. Although Burke looked great in 36 games for New York last season, his previous 267 NBA games were much more of a mixed bag. As for Mudiay, he has also been inconsistent since entering the league in 2015, but he’s still just 22 years old, and a full training camp with the Knicks could give him a better chance to unlock his potential next season.
3. What will the Knicks do with the No. 9 pick?
While the Knicks could simply enter next season with Ntilikina, Mudiay, and Burke at the point guard spot and figure things out over the course of the year, the team’s 2018 first-rounder may provide an opportunity to land a long-term solution at the position. If Trae Young and/or Collin Sexton are on the board when New York picks at No. 9, either one might represent the best player(s) available, and a rebuilding franchise like the Knicks should be prioritizing talent over need.
Still, the Knicks will have other options. Small forwards Mikal Bridges and Miles Bridges have frequently been linked to the club, and they rank right behind Sexton at 10th and 11th on Jonathan Givony’s big board at ESPN.com, so they wouldn’t be reaches at No. 9. Villanova’s Bridges, in particular, would be a nice fit on a Knicks squad that could use a sharpshooting wing with defensive versatility.
4. Will Kristaps Porzingis be extended this offseason?
Porzingis is one of 23 players eligible for a rookie scale extension, and his case is perhaps the most interesting of the bunch. On the surface, a max extension for Porzingis as soon as possible seems like the logical move for both sides, but there are mitigating factors in play. Porzingis will still be several months away from returning to the court on July 1, when he first become extension-eligible. The Knicks might want to wait and monitor his rehab process before committing $150MM+ to a player recovering from a major knee injury.
It’s also not a certainty that Porzingis would rush into a long-term agreement with the Knicks. He has expressed some frustration with the franchise over the last couple years, and while he seems enthusiastic about the hiring of Fizdale, he may not be ready to sign away his next five seasons without having played a game for his new head coach.
Throw in the fact that waiting until 2019 on a new deal for Porzingis could give the Knicks more financial flexibility next summer, and an early extension is hardly a slam dunk. It wouldn’t surprise me if the two sides do get something done, but if they do, I think it’ll happen closer to the mid-October deadline than to July 1, when that extension window first opens.
5. Who are the trade candidates on the Knicks’ roster?
With the Knicks not looking to contend right away, the club should be willing to listen to trade offers on pieces who could help other teams immediately and may not be part of New York’s long-term plans. Courtney Lee is the most obvious candidate here — he’s coming off a very productive season (12.0 PPG, .454/.406/.919 shooting). While he’s not cheap, the remainder of Lee’s contract (two years, $25MM) isn’t bad at all compared to some of the price tags on other lesser 3-and-D players around the NBA. Lee’s name came up in trade rumors prior to the 2018 deadline, and I’d expect it to happen again this offseason.
Outside of Lee, the Knicks don’t have many clear trade candidates. Noah’s contract is virtually unmovable, Ron Baker has negative trade value, and Tim Hardaway Jr. isn’t going anywhere. The only other player who might make sense as a veteran trade chip is forward Lance Thomas. The native New Yorker isn’t really a bargain at $7.1MM, but his non-guaranteed salary for 2019/20 may appeal to teams, and he can be a useful defender and role player — even if he won’t necessarily live up to the Draymond Green comparison from his new head coach.
Here’s where things currently stand for the Knicks financially:
Guaranteed Salary
- Joakim Noah ($18,530,000)
- Tim Hardaway Jr. ($17,325,000)
- Courtney Lee ($12,253,780)
- Lance Thomas ($7,119,650)
- Kristaps Porzingis ($5,697,054)
- Ron Baker ($4,544,400): Exercised player option
- Emmanuel Mudiay ($4,294,480)
- Frank Ntilikina ($4,155,720)
- Damyean Dotson ($1,378,242)
- Total: $75,298,326
Player Options
- Enes Kanter ($18,622,514)
- Kyle O’Quinn ($4,256,250)
- Total: $22,878,764
Team Options
- None
Non-Guaranteed Salary
- Trey Burke ($1,795,015)1
- Troy Williams ($1,544,951)2
- Total: $3,339,966
Restricted Free Agents
- None
Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds
- No. 9 overall pick ($3,708,089)
- Michael Beasley ($1,499,698): Non-Bird rights
- Jarrett Jack ($1,499,698): Non-Bird rights
- Total: $6,707,485
Projected Salary Cap: $101,000,000
Projected Cap Room: None
- There are a number of variables in play when it comes to cap space for the Knicks. Our projection assumes that Kanter will pick up his player option and that the team will retain all 10 players currently under contract – including the non-guaranteed deals – along with its first-round pick. Combining all those cap hits would take team salary to almost exactly $101MM.
Footnotes:
- Burke’s salary becomes guaranteed for $100K after July 10 and guaranteed for $400K after the first game of the 2018/19 regular season.
- Williams’ salary becomes guaranteed for $100K after August 1 and guaranteed for $200K after the first game of the 2018/19 regular season.
Note: Rookie scale cap holds are estimates based on salary cap projections and could increase or decrease depending on where the cap lands.
Salary information from Basketball Insiders was used in the creation of this post. Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Just five questions?
Need to pick up kanter contract
It’s up to him. And I hope he doesn’t.
Why don’t you want him to stay here, maybe ur a NYK HATER ..he’s gonna stay here cause he loves NYC”HATER”
ugh…child.
After the 1st question, I thought the next 4 were going to be “What’s going on at …. [fill in each of the other 4 positions] ? All positions (including center) need to wait for the draft. At #9, it’s not really the best single player available, but best fit among the players in the highest tier still having available players. We’ll know after this off season if this FO is up to building a championship contender. More bad than good decisions so far, but most of the bad was on Mills before Perry’s arrival. Hopefully, Perry will make talent evaluation decisions, and the new HC will be on the same page on the development side.
I do disagree with their being any uncertainty as to whether KP will re-up for 5 years (6 in total) if a max deal is offered before the deadline. No player has ever turned that down, and (unless a player is independently wealthy or very stupid), I doubt any ever will. If the relationship is strained at all, then it might affect the Knicks’ ability to convince him to be OK with them holding off for cap/FA reasons in 2019, but the injury will complicate that. Other KI, I don’t see the Knicks being a FA player in 2019 anyway, so I’d go ahead and offer the max extension if only to stop the media nonsense of KP not re-upping here.
Also, it makes no sense to stretch Noah’s last year unless they know they have a FA ready to sign in 2019 (which they can’t until 2019). The 14th roster spot isn’t worth needlessly contaminating cap space through 2021.
I can’t see KP not accepting a max. What he disliked is gone and the money + NY and its diversity is too attractive for someone like him.
This whole Frank at the 2 experiment is not a good idea at all.
Kanter would be foolish to opt out. Yes, he may make more on a multi-year deal, if you just look at it from the perspective of this year. But if opts in and has a good season, that multi-year deal will still be there next year AND will probably be higher.
Problem opting in is he may not have a good season next year, or could get injured. I agree his dollars probably don’t go higher on a per year basis, but something close with guaranteed years is what he’ll look for.
That is called not having confidence in your ability. You are basically planning on being an anchor for your team in that scenario. I’d think most athletes would rather bet on themselves than against themselves.
Regardless of best player available, if the Knicks take a PG at #9, they might as well just close up shop. Taking a Trae Young or a Collin Sexton only extends the rebuild another season, because it puts you exactly where you were last season at this time. If you put a Ntilikina and a Sexton or Young on the same team, they will not both succeed. You will inevitably be trading Ntilikina for a player that would likely have less control and probably a lower upside than a SF that you could take at #9 like Bridges or a Kevin Knox. With Ntilikina, Hardaway, Porzingis, and Kanter (assuminghe opts in) starting, this team needs to draft a starting caliber SF.
Drafting for need is not always a bad thing. Picking the 4th rated center at #4 when he is rated #20 because you need one is foolish. Picking a SF you need at #9 when he is rated #12 instead of picking the PG rated #8 when you have 3 other fairly young PGs is just sound drafting. The ideal solution would be to trade down a couple of spots with a team in love with Young/Sexton and gain an extra 2nd round pick along with getting your guy a bit cheaper, but that requires a perfect storm. Picking the BPA is a good idea if you are a team like Orlando with a lot of holes. But when you a single starter to begin to mesh with the rest of the team like the Knicks, you need to get him now.
Who said you couldn’t trade Ntilikina? Always draft the best talent…can always move what you don’t want/need.
I didn’t say you COULDN’T trade him, I said it was a waste of a year to trade him. If they draft a PG this year, then they need to draft a wing next year or a center if Kanter is gone by then. Whether anyone likes the make up or not, the Knicks are currently made up of Ntilikina, Hardaway, Porzingis, and Kanter. Adding a SF to that mix, at least gives it a chance to succeed. If it doesn’t work, then you wipe the slate clean and start again. But to not even try is just the antithesis of sports.
So you’d rather waste 5 years cleaning the skate than 1 year? The Knicks screwed up drafting Ntilikina – take the medicine and move on. He’s a serviceable defender off the bench, ala Michael Cooper. Knicks management blew it.
Take a look at other draft picks in the past that didn’t work out. Think Washington would do Kwame Brown again and draft around him for other positions again?
If the talent is equal, sure, drafting the position of need would make sense, but that most likely won’t be the case when the Knicks are called upon. Talent wins. Especially in the current environment the Knicks are in.
Michael Cooper won a defensive player of the year award. He made league all defensive team 8 times (5 first teams, and 3 second teams). He was one of the best 3 point shooters of his era. If Ntilikina has a career as good as Michael Cooper I would think of it as a success. In 168 playoff games, Cooper shot close to 40% from the 3 point line.
First off, he was a bench player. You don’t draft bench players that high. Secondly, 168 playoff games – thanks to his teammates and HOF lineup. Third, he averaged just over half a game of playing time and shot 34% from the three during the regular season.
Let’s focus on the regular season, a necessity in order to make the playoffs. Frank and the Knicks aren’t even close to a visit, yet. What I’m saying is Ntilikina is a backup of the bench that can provide good defense, and hopefully some shooting as he matures. Based on talent, I don’t see him exceeding anything more than that.
Calling Cooper a bench player is like saying Iguadola is a bench player. Cooper starts for basically any team in the league. He’s only on the bench because he played for the greatest team of his era. Ntilikina right now is still only 19 years old. With his length and athleticism he projects as a top defender guarding pg and sg with some ability to defend sf. Of course almost the same could have been said about Iman Shumpert (who never developed his jump shot). If Ntilikina can shoot close to 40% from the 3, he’ll be an above average starter in the league (like Danny Green on San Antonio). If not, he’ll end up more like Shumpert.
Iguodala was an all-star. He could score, shoot, play defense, etc. Cooper was a lifetime bench player. Good defense, and that’s about it. Bad comparison.
As for Danny Green, he’s not even close to an above average starter. Guessing you haven’t watched many Spurs games. Shoots 3’s with limited defense. Floor IQ not the best.
I would rather the Knicks draft a wing than a pg. Its a lot easier to get a solid pg than a solid sf. A lot of pgs become good after age 25. Steph Curry, Steve Nash, and Kyle Lowry didn’t make all star teams until after they turned 25. It takes more time to learn the pg position and its less stressful on the body so there tends to be more professional level point guards than other positions. The league is currently dominated by the wing position and there’s a shortage of them. I’d rather have an all star wing than an all star pg. I’d rather have a solid starter sf than a solid starter pg on my roster. For all these reasons, I’d rather see the Knicks draft a wing than a pg, but YMMV.
I am afraid to say it, but I don’t think KP6 will ever be the same player again after the injury, so I don’t think the rebuilt should be centered around him. There are too many cases of players been 7-3 or taller that it took an injury to derail a fantastic career. For example Ralph Sampson was a beast before the injury so Yao Ming, Arvydas Sabonis… Hopefully he’ll be back to where he was, just worried he won’t.
Still I would pick always the best player not position, I don’t think Knicks are in any better place than Magic, you are not gonna compete for the playoffs for the next 2-3 years at least, be patient & try to enjoy the ride, so if you can pick Young/Sexton ahead of SF.
Agreed, he may not be the same, though the players you’ve listed played a decade or more ago and advances have been made in surgery and rehab. Matching KP vs Sampson (not as agile as KP), Ming and Sarbonis (heavier) may not be a fair assessment. He’s also younger if I’m correct at the time of injury.
My Knicks fantasy scenario is a trade with Memphis. Sign and trade: Kanter (4 years, 14 million per approx, Beasley 2 or 3 years at about 5 or 6 million (MLE exception signing), plus Courtney Lee for Chandler Parsons (toxic contract), Ben Mclemore, and the number 4 pick. I mean, if I am Memphis I don’t do it because I think Memphis should be in a full rebuild mode (like trading Gasol to Cleveland for the number 8 pick). But if Memphis wants to win now, maybe this trade with the Knicks makes sense?
First, Memphis wouldn’t win with any of that. Second, Kanter would be a backup to Gasol, Beasley could sign with them now and doesn’t need to be traded (he’s a free agent), and third, the only thing Memphis would get is dumping the Parsons contract – certainly not worth the 4th overall pick.
You’re right, Memphis wouldn’t do the deal.
I think Kanter could start next to Gasol. Kanter’s skill set is similar to Z-bo. Courtney Lee is an upgrade over Ben McLemore. I agree that they could sign Beasley as a free agent, but they’d have to use their MLE to sign him as they are also over the cap. If they got him in a trade, they could sign another player with their MLE. Maybe they could convince Tyreke Evans to stay for the full MLE . So, I think you undersell what they get in this trade.
Outcasts from a crap team for the 4th overall pick? I don’t know bud…
The Grizz would have to add more then just Gasol.
Conley and Gasol for Thompson, Osman and #8
There are lots of trade rules. The most common rule is that the salaries of the players involved need to be about the same (although there are exceptions to this rule for teams under the cap). Gasol and Conley make more than 50 million a year; Tristan and Osman make less than 20. The trade you suggest isn’t NBA cap legal.
In addition to not providing compensation commensurate with the 4th pick in the draft, your trade can’t be done for a bunch of reasons, including timing of the draft and FA, the fact that S&T deals are first deals between the player and the new team (Kanter/Beasley would have to do deals with Memphis, and vice versa, which the can’t do until the summer), and you can’t use the MLE for a S&T.
DXC, thanks for sharing the knowledge. I used to really know the salary cap rules but don’t exactly anymore. Its uber complicated to study for just a hobby. But, I did reread sections and can confirm you are correct. I tried to think of scenarios to finagle it but haven’t come up with anything yet. Basically I can’t figure out any way to get the Knicks under the cap. If Kanter opts out and the Knicks use some kind of bird rights to resign him at a slight discount (say 3 years starting at 14 million) would Kanter at 14 million for next year instead of 18 be enough to get the Knicks under the cap?
I don’t see any way for this year but it’s probably a good thing, keeping in mind that cap space is only meaningful if its substantially in excess of the MLE, and they’re NOT an attractive FA destination right now. I don’t even want them to sign a long term deal with the MLE this year, so they can have some flexibility for 2019.
I do want them to retain Kanter as a core player. But the team seems to want him to opt in (and just play this year at 18 mm). A 3 year deal can certainly be structured so that Kanter’s number ahead of the 2019/20 season is around 14 mm, even if the overall value is greater per year. E.g., 18 (next yr), 14.4 (19/20) and 15.6 (20/21). He’d probably want a 4th year since he’s going to make more than 18 next year if he opts in, but it can be worked out. They won’t do better with any one as good as him.
Maybe, if Memphis is really thinking short term, then Lee, THJ and #9 for Parsons, McLemore and #4 could make sense. I would like it anyway.
Grizz (with also taking a SF type at 9) revamps their wings (which is what they need to compete), ridding themselves of Parsons in the process without taking on additional money.
Knicks get a contract that’s worse than Noah’s, but a chance to get a different tier of player in the draft. Also, helps Knicks’ cap situation a little in 2019.
Definitely a reasonable possibilty. If Memphis would take Ntilikina instead of this years number 9, even better.
There’s a lot of boom or bust guys in this draft IMO. Mo Bamba, Michael Porter, and really a lot of them. In some ways I like the idea of the Knicks getting someone sure to be good but probably won’t be great (like Bridges) instead of one of the boom or bust guys.
Based on today’s headlines, no longer a 100% theoretical conversation.
1. Hopefully Kanter reups.
2. Frank is on the wing with Hardaway Jr.
3. Mudiay and Burke are the bench backcourt. Sign a Vet lead guard for the starting 5.
4. Draft best player available regardless of position.
5. Waive Noah, trade Lee and Thomas. Sign any young dudes who can fit positions of need and rebuild the right way.