Five Key Offseason Questions: Oklahoma City Thunder

After losing Kevin Durant during the summer of 2016, the Thunder made an effort to reintroduce some star power to their roster during the 2017 offseason, finalizing trades for Paul George and Carmelo Anthony to create a new “Big Three” along with Russell Westbrook.

However, Oklahoma City sacrificed important depth in those deals, and it came back to haunt the team, particularly after Andre Roberson went down with a season-ending injury — the bench ranked 29th in the NBA in scoring during the regular season, and was dead last in PPG during the playoffs. Whether or not George and Anthony are still on the roster next season, OKC will have to find a way to replenish its rotation with reliable contributors.

Here are five key questions facing the franchise this summer:

1. Will George re-sign with the Thunder?

A year ago, it seemed like a foregone conclusion that George would be traded to a team like the Lakers – his preferred landing spot – or the Celtics, who had more than enough assets to put together any number of competitive trade offers. The Thunder ended up shocking the world by snatching George out of Indiana in a blockbuster deal that virtually no one saw coming.

Twelve months later, it’s tempting to once again write the Thunder off as a long-term home for George, particularly after the team’s unceremonious first-round exit from the postseason. There’s a clear path for George to return home to Los Angeles and join the Lakers, who can create enough cap room to sign two stars this offseason.

Still, we keep hearing that the Thunder remain confident about their chances of re-signing George, and Marc Stein of The New York Times wrote this week in his newsletter that there’s a “growing belief” around the league that the club’s confidence is well-founded. I’m still not entirely convinced that George sticks in Oklahoma City. After all, the last time the Thunder were conveying this sort of confidence heading into a star player’s free agency, he bolted for the Bay Area.

It would be fascinating to see what happens if the Thunder do re-sign George. A maximum-salary contract for the two-way forward would start at $30MM+. With about $89MM in guaranteed money already on the club’s 2018/19 cap, and Anthony’s expensive player option likely to add another $28MM or so to that figure, OKC probably can’t really afford George unless costs are cut elsewhere.

2. Will Anthony be on the Thunder’s roster in 2018/19?

Whether or not George is back, Anthony’s player option is a problem. He hasn’t technically opted in yet, but there’s no chance he’ll turn down a $27.9MM+ salary. He’d be lucky to receive a third of that on the open market.

Anthony’s situation is somewhat reminiscent of Dwyane Wade opting into his $23MM+ contract with the Bulls last June. Wade was unlikely to ever get that sort of payday again, so he couldn’t pass up the money, but it quickly became clear that he had no interest in playing for the rebuilding Bulls, and the two sides reached a buyout agreement that saw Wade give up about $8MM in order to sign with a team of his choice.

While the Thunder and Anthony could reach a similar agreement, Carmelo may not quite as eager as Wade was to leave his current situation. Chicago was entering a full-fledged rebuild, whereas OKC hopes to contend again next season, particularly if George returns. Paradoxically though, it looks like there’s no way the Thunder could reasonably keep Anthony on board at his current cap figure if they re-sign George. The tax penalties would be too high.

If George re-signs, I’d expect Anthony to be waived and stretched, even if he’s not willing to give up any money in a buyout. Stretching the final year of his contract over three seasons would reduce his cap charge by about $18.6MM, creating some badly-needed relief for the Thunder. Even if George isn’t back, it wouldn’t be a total surprise to see OKC take that route, since doing so would move team salary well below the tax line and would generate some flexibility for other roster moves.

3. Will the Thunder re-sign Jerami Grant?

Outside of the sheer cost of Anthony’s 2018/19 salary, another argument against the Thunder bringing him back lies in his and Grant’s on/off-court numbers in the postseason. The sample size is admittedly small, but the numbers are still striking.

In 133 minutes with Grant on the court, the Thunder had a net rating of +8.9, compared to a -17.1(!) rating in the 155 minutes he sat. The club’s net rating when Anthony played was -14.3 in 194 minutes, compared to +13.5 in the 94 minutes he was on the bench.

Again, it’s probably dangerous to draw conclusions based on a six-game series, but those numbers won’t be forgotten as the Thunder think long and hard about investing in the 24-year-old Grant and divesting themselves of the 34-year-old Anthony.

Unfortunately for the Thunder, Grant will be an unrestricted free agent this July, meaning the team won’t have the right of first refusal if he gets a favorable offer from a rival suitor. Outside of George, Grant will be Oklahoma City’s top free agent priority this offseason, and if George walks, I’d expect the Thunder to do all they can to make sure Grant doesn’t get away too. But if the young forward receives an offer in the $8-10MM range from another team, it might be tough for OKC to justify matching that offer and spending a significant chunk of its available money on a single player.

4. Do the Thunder have any good trade pieces left?

When the Thunder acquired George and Anthony last offseason, the team surrendered Victor Oladipo, Domantas Sabonis, Enes Kanter, and Doug McDermott to make it happen. Giving up those players not only depleted Oklahoma City’s depth — it also left the team somewhat lacking in trade chips going forward.

Westbrook isn’t going anywhere, and Steven Adams and Roberson probably aren’t either. That leaves Alex Abrines, Patrick Patterson, Kyle Singler, Terrance Ferguson, and Dakari Johnson as the only possible trade chips under contract besides Anthony, who would be very difficult to move. Singler will have negative value, and Patterson might too after an injury-plagued 2017/18 campaign. Abrines holds a little appeal, and Ferguson would be a good chip, but the Thunder would be better off keeping them rather than making another two-for-one deal that hurts the bench.

While more blockbuster deals seem unlikely for the Thunder, given their lack of trade candidates, the team does have all of its second-round picks, so smaller-scale deals for a bench player or two are possible.

5. How can the Thunder fill the holes on their roster?

With few good trade options and no first-round pick, the Thunder will have limited avenues for filling the gaps on their squad. This is especially true if George returns. I imagine team ownership will be reluctant to pay another big luxury-tax bill, so finding complementary players may simply come down to targeting veterans willing to come play alongside Westbrook and George on minimum-salary contracts.

If George and Anthony aren’t back, the Thunder should have the opportunity to go shopping for slightly higher-priced free agents. In that scenario, the team would have the full mid-level exception and the bi-annual exception at its disposal.

Splitting up the MLE among two or three players and using the BAE to sign another veteran could allow the Thunder to add a handful of players to their roster before having to resort to minimum-salary offers. They still won’t have a shot at top-tier – or even second-tier – free agents using that approach, but they’d at least avoid having to sit out the first stage of free agency entirely.

Here’s where things currently stand for the Thunder financially:

Guaranteed Salary

• Russell Westbrook ($35,350,000)¹
• Steven Adams ($24,157,304)
• Andre Roberson ($10,000,000)
• Alex Abrines ($5,455,236)
• Patrick Patterson ($5,451,600)
• Kyle Singler ($4,996,000)
• Terrance Ferguson ($2,118,840)
• Dakari Johnson ($1,378,242)
• Total: $88,907,222
  

Player Options

• Carmelo Anthony ($27,928,140)²
• Paul George ($20,703,384)
• Total: $48,631,524

Team Options

• None

Non-Guaranteed Salary

• None

Restricted Free Agents

• None

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

• Josh Huestis ($2,243,326): Bird rights
• Corey Brewer ($1,499,698): Non-Bird rights
• Nick Collison ($1,499,698): Bird rights³
• Raymond Felton ($1,499,698): Non-Bird rights
• Jerami Grant ($1,499,698): Bird rights
• Total: $8,242,118

Projected Salary Cap: $101,000,000

Projected Cap Room: None

• While the Thunder currently have less than $89MM in guaranteed salary on their books, Anthony’s early termination option essentially eliminates the opportunity for cap room. And if the Thunder want to re-sign George after he declines his player option, they’ll have to keep a massive cap hold on their books to retain his Bird rights. Even if George were to depart and Anthony were to be waived and stretched, the Thunder’s total team salary would still be $101,541,846 (eight guaranteed salaries, Anthony’s dead money, and cap charges for four empty roster spots).

Footnotes:

1. Westbrook will have a maximum salary worth 35% of the salary cap. This projected max salary is based on a $101MM cap, but it could be higher or lower depending on where the cap lands.
2. Anthony’s option is technically an early termination option. However, it essentially functions the same as a player option does. To opt into the final year of his contract, he’ll simply have to decline that option rather than exercising it.
3. Collison has announced his retirement.

Salary information from Basketball Insiders was used in the creation of this post. Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.