All 30 of 2018’s first-round picks are now under contract with their new NBA clubs, and odds are that one of those 30 players will become the NBA’s next Rookie of the Year — in fact, it’s very likely that a player picked in the top 11 will win that award.
Before 2016 second-rounder Malcolm Brogdon took home the award in 2017, only one player drafted lower than No. 11 overall had earned Rookie of the Year honors in the last 50+ years — No. 18 overall pick Mark Jackson was named Rookie of the Year in 1988.
That bodes well for the top 11 players taken in this year’s draft. And of those players, two top picks look like the early frontrunners for next season’s award. As Kevin Pelton and Mike Schmitz detail in an Insider-only ESPN.com piece, their top two choices for 2018/19 Rookie of the Year are Suns center Deandre Ayton and Mavericks guard Luka Doncic, as each player seems poised to take on a large role and make an immediate impact for his new NBA team.
Still, those aren’t the only contenders for the award. Both Pelton and Schmitz view Kings big man Marvin Bagley III as a strong challenger, despite an underwhelming Summer League performance. Sacramento is high on Bagley and projects to be a bottom-two team in the West, so he’ll get plenty of opportunities to play. The same can be said of Trae Young, who’s in line for a larger role on the lottery-bound Hawks with Dennis Schroder no longer ahead of him on the depth chart.
Pelton and Schmitz are also high on Bulls center Wendell Carter Jr. and Knicks forward Kevin Knox, both of whom had strong Summer League showings this month. Carter and Knox seem better positioned to put up numbers than raw big men like Jaren Jackson Jr. of the Grizzlies and Mohamed Bamba of the Magic — Jackson, in particular, will have to fight for playing time, given Memphis’ playoff aspirations.
Rounding out the top 11 picks are Cavaliers point guard Collin Sexton, Suns forward Mikal Bridges, and Clippers guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, all of whom should get a chance to earn regular minutes in their rookie seasons.
It’s possible that a player outside of that group of 11 will be named the 2018/19 Rookie of the Year. One dark-horse candidate is Kings center Harry Giles, the 20th overall pick in the 2017 draft. After missing all of last season, Giles could take the Ben Simmons route and compete for Rookie of the Year honors in what is technically his second NBA season. Health remains a concern for Giles, but he played well in the Sacramento and Las Vegas Summer Leagues this month.
A healthy Michael Porter Jr. would be a candidate for this award too, but the Nuggets figure to take it slow with the rookie forward, who has dealt with back problems this year. Even if he’s effective when he plays, Porter probably won’t see enough action to make a serious case for RoY consideration.
What do you think? Who is your very-early pick for the 2018/19 Rookie of the Year award? Will a favorite like Ayton or Doncic win it, or will we see an underdog candidate emerge?
Vote below in our poll and then head to the comment section to make your case!
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Don’t sleep on Miles Bridges in Charlotte. He could be a starter on Opening Night with his ability to space the floor and play and guard multiple positions
Agreed. I think Bridges starts Day 1.
Keep an eye on Harry Giles in Sacramento.
Luka Doncic easy call ROY
Big Ragu… DiVincenzo
Don’t see any superstars in this class just off of names but I’m sure there’s some Donovan Mitchell’s and Tatum’s to be had. I really think basketball is the most difficult sport to evaluate skill transition from college to pros
Nobody saw D Mitchell as a great player until he showed us. Mikal Bridges could be a gem, someone will show up bigtime. Mitchel was drafted 12 or 13?
This class is. It’s as one of the better classes in a while. Of course that remains to be seen.
I’m bias cuz I’m huge kings fan but i honestly think your sleeping on Harry Giles.
He could win it.
I think it will be Knox, no Porzingis for a good portion of the season. He should of a lot of opportunities with the ball.
I want bamba to be good and win but im like 90% sure that doncic will win it
I said before the draft ever happened that if the Hawks traded Schroder and took Trae Young that he would definitely average 20 PPG and be ROY. He may have struggled in summer, but those games don’t count. I stand (on wobbly legs) by my prediction.
I think Ayton will be more of an impact player than Doncic. Dennis Smith will handle the offense for the Mavs, so Doncic will have to learn to play off the ball. Plus Doncic has to adjust to the rule changes from Europe. Plus all the European players say the NBA is faster and more physical than Europe. The players Doncic has played with are the guys who couldn’t make it in the NBA. Wait until he matches up with Klay Thompson and C.J. McCollum. Ayton will have a hard time with Anthony Davis, Demarcus Cousins, and deAndre Jordan, but he’ll be the Suns 2nd best scorer.
Doncic played better players than the NCAA
Rodions Kurucs got it locked.
I called 1.Mitchell & 2.Simmons last year (almost right), and I’ve already declared 1.Ayton, 2.Bagley & 3.Alexander this year. However I’m dropping Bagley due to him trying to learn 3 positions. Doncic will also have new things to figure out– to relearn.
So, 1 Ayton, 2 Alexander, 3 Carter, 4 Sexton, 5 Bagley, 6 Mikal B, 7 Knox, 8 Doncic, 9 Huerter, 10 Moritz Wagner. Others may turn out better but have less PT. Bagley & Doncic will rise too in time. IDK Giles.
Sexton.
Cannot tell in my opinion too early, but my guess would be one of MBIII, WCJ, Giles, or Young without forgetting guys like Ayton, Doncic or MPJ. One of this 7 guys, cannot narrow it down any more at this point, without seeing them play at the start of the season.
Why was Ben Simmons left off the list?
L