Of the eight 2019 first-round picks that have already been traded, seven had some sort of protections on them from the moment they were dealt. The eighth – Sacramento’s first-rounder – started off as unprotected when it was sent to the Sixers, but Philadelphia added protections and swap rights to it when it was re-routed to Boston in 2017’s Markelle Fultz/Jayson Tatum blockbuster.
In other words, the destinations for all eight of this year’s traded first-round picks will hinge on the NBA’s 2018/19 league standings.
[RELATED: 2018/19 NBA Reverse Standings]
With the regular season nearing its halfway point, it’s worth checking in on those protected first-round picks to get a sense of which ones are likely to change hands and which ones may end up falling within their protected ranges.
Here’s a breakdown of where things stand right now:
Traded picks that are likely to change hands:
- Kings‘ pick to Celtics
- Protection: Top-1
- Current draft slot: No. 14
- Nuggets‘ pick to Nets
- Protection: Top-12
- Current draft slot: No. 28
- Raptors‘ pick to Spurs
- Protection: Top-20
- Current draft slot: No. 29
The Nuggets and Raptors look like good bets to finish near the top of their respective conferences, so their late first-rounders will almost certainly be conveyed in 2019. As for the Kings‘ pick, it’ll head to Boston if it’s not the No. 1 overall pick and if it’s more favorable than Philadelphia’s first-round selection. Right now, the Sixers‘ first-rounder projects to be No. 24, so the Celtics will likely end up with Sacramento’s first-rounder.
Traded picks that are unlikely to change hands:
- Cavaliers‘ pick to Hawks
- Protection: Top-10
- Current draft slot: No. 1
- Bucks‘ pick to Suns
- Protection: Top-3 and 17-30
- Current draft slot: No. 30
Even with the NBA’s new draft lottery rules instituted for 2019, teams can’t fall more than four spots as a result of the lottery results. So the Cavaliers would need to have a pretty strong second half for their pick to be in any real danger. The Bucks, meanwhile, have the NBA’s best record, so the odds of their first-rounder falling between 4-16 are minuscule.
Traded picks that remain up in the air:
- Mavericks’ pick to Hawks
- Protection: Top-5
- Current draft slot: No. 11
- Grizzlies‘ pick to Celtics
- Protection: Top-8
- Current draft slot: No. 13
- Clippers‘ pick to Celtics
- Protection: Top-14
- Current draft slot: No. 19/20 (tie)
If the season ended today and there were no major lottery surprises, these picks would all change hands. Given how close the Western Conference standings are, however, that outlook could change quickly. Of these three teams, the Clippers may be the most likely to hang onto their pick, since they’ll need to make the playoffs in order for Boston to get their first-rounder.
The other two look reasonably likely to change hands for now, but the NBA’s new lottery system shouldn’t be overlooked as a potential wild-card factor here. Let’s say the Mavericks finish with the NBA’s 10th-worst record — under the old system, they would have had just a 4.0% chance at jumping into the top three. Under the new system, they’d have a 13.9% at moving into the top four and keeping their pick.
Colangelo really hosed the Sixers.
I’ll be waiting for one of his burner accounts to blast me in the replies.
I see the Kings slipping. Utah, Memphis, and New Orleans all are good enough to make the playoffs. I think the Pelicans are the team most likely to make a trade before the trade deadline. I don’t see how the Wizards can stay pat either. The Celtics will have 4 first round picks to offer for Anthony Davis along with Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, and a cap filler maybe this summer.
Except they can’t till Kyrie opts out of his contract. And that’s not a given. He could opt in and negotiate an extension since he’s said he wants to stay in Boston
He opts out this summer and then re-signs with them (assuming he wants to stay) at the 2019 max. Doing otherwise would cost him about 75 mm or more.
Why would Kyrie opt in for$21mm for 1 year when he can get $35mm for 5 years? The Pelicans want Jayson Tatum and will wait until Anthony makes free agent decision after July 1. Boston can negotiate trade before then, but can’t finalize it until after then.
I can’t remember a team actually making four 1st round picks in a single draft. 2019 is not viewed as a deep draft, so it might not be so easy to consolidate several of them into something substantially higher.
Celtics had 4 in 2016 but traded their last pick. That’s the closest I can think of. If you make more than 2 pick you’re almost forced to draft and stash oversees.
Minn technically did make 4 in 2009, but one was Rubio, who by that point had said he wasn’t coming for a few years, and another was effectively made by Denver via the typical delayed pre-draft trade.
no chance the celtics/danny ainge keeps all 4 picks in this years draft
Just a note on that Kings pick. It goes to Boston if it’s 2-30 and goes to Philly if it’s 1st overall. As unlikely as that is