The 2019 NBA draft lottery is just over two weeks away, as it will take place on Tuesday, May 14. The event will significantly impact the fate of several NBA franchises vying for the right to select potential stars like Zion Williamson and Ja Morant.
This year, for the first time, the NBA is using its new lottery format to determine the top picks. In past years, the odds have been more favorable for the league’s worst teams, and the lottery has only been used to determine the top three selections. This year, those odds were smoothed out a little more, and the top four picks will be determined in the lottery.
For a full breakdown of the new system, be sure to check out our glossary entry on the subject.
The standard odds chart for the new draft lottery format is included in our glossary entry, but the numbers in that chart don’t quite match up with 2019’s lottery. Because a handful of teams finished the season with identical records, those ties will impact the odds for this year’s lottery.
With the help of data from Tankathon.com – which is worth checking out for all sorts of draft-related info – we’ve listed the new odds for 2019 in the chart below.
The numbers in the chart indicate percentages, so the Knicks, for instance, have a 14% chance of landing the No. 1 pick and a 47.9% chance of ending up at No. 5. If a team’s odds are listed as >0, that percentage is below 0.1%.
Here’s the full chart:
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYK | 14 | 13.4 | 12.7 | 12 | 47.9 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| CLE | 14 | 13.4 | 12.7 | 12 | 27.8 | 20 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| PHX | 14 | 13.4 | 12.7 | 12 | 14.8 | 26 | 7.1 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| CHI | 12.5 | 12.2 | 11.9 | 11.5 | 7.2 | 25.7 | 16.8 | 2.2 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| ATL | 10.5 | 10.5 | 10.6 | 10.5 | 2.2 | 19.6 | 26.7 | 8.8 | 0.6 | – | – | – | – | – |
| WSH | 9 | 9.2 | 9.4 | 9.6 | – | 8.6 | 29.6 | 20.6 | 3.8 | 0.2 | – | – | – | – |
| NOP | 6 | 6.3 | 6.7 | 7.2 | – | – | 19.7 | 37.2 | 15.1 | 1.6 | >0 | – | – | – |
| MEM | 6 | 6.3 | 6.7 | 7.2 | – | – | – | 31.2 | 34.1 | 8 | 0.5 | >0 | – | – |
| DAL | 6 | 6.3 | 6.7 | 7.2 | – | – | – | – | 46.4 | 24.3 | 2.9 | 0.1 | >0 | – |
| MIN | 3 | 3.3 | 3.6 | 4 | – | – | – | – | – | 65.9 | 18.9 | 1.2 | >0 | >0 |
| LAL | 2 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 2.8 | – | – | – | – | – | – | 77.6 | 12.6 | 0.4 | >0 |
| CHA | 1 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 1.4 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 86.1 | 9.0 | 0.2 |
| MIA | 1 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 1.4 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 92.9 | 2.3 |
| SAC | 1 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 1.4 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 95.2 |
Notes:
- The Grizzlies‘ pick will be sent to the Celtics if it falls outside the top eight.
- The Mavericks‘ pick will be sent to the Hawks if it falls outside the top five.
- The Kings‘ pick will be sent to the Celtics, unless it’s No. 1 overall, in which case it would be sent to the Sixers.
The full pre-lottery draft order for 2019 can be found right here.
I’m confused. How can the team with the worst records have the best odds for the 5th pick. Shouldn’t it be the other way around?
Because the Knicks still tie for the best odds to land 1, 2, 3, or 4, but those odds only combined for a 52.1% chance of landing a top 4 pick, because they were the worst team they can fall no lower than #5, so 100-52.1=47.9%.
The color coding of transferred picks is the best way I’ve seen this shown on the internet. Great concept and it really helps when you have confusing scenarios like the Kings pick.
On the app, this looks terrible lol.
Most things like messy on mobile :(
It’s not bad if you turn your phone sideways, though the color-coding on the traded-pick odds don’t show up, which is annoying.
Lakers got a chance at #1 with lebrons luck we got this
Love the fact that the Knicks are going to have Ewing represent them at the lottery. Aside from the odds, the Knicks just added some historical luck to the equation.
Whatever karma got them that 1st overall in the first (unweighted) lottery draft, the Knicks have been paying for ever since, starting with the next draft in 1986 (worst record to 5th pick). Since the weighted lottery was introduced (1990), they’ve been in it 13 times and haven’t had a single lucky bounce of one of their ping pong balls. They (or the team owning their pick) have drawn a lottery pick (top 3 pick) only once (#2 in 2006), but they had the 2nd worst record that year, so they didn’t jump anyone. Whereas, they’ve been jumped several times, most importantly in the two drafts in which they ended up with their highest picks (other than 2006) in the era: #6, in 2008 (with the 5th worst record), and #4 in 2015 (with the 2nd worst record).
So, maybe, moving on to the new format will end the 33 year drought. Ewing’s number.
celtics hypothetically get first rd picks 9, 12, clippers, and their own – should be enough to get top 3
No way! Who is gonna take a bunch of mediocre picks for a franchise changing pick? No one! Keep on dreaming!
Does anyone else think it’s weird that ATL has a 2.2% chance of getting the pick their currently in position to have?
They should block teams from getting a second number one pick until all teams have gotten a number one pick.
Every team should have at least a 1% chance at number one unless they’ve already gotten one. Once everyone has, you start over.
It would make the lottery a lot more exciting and every team would get a chance at the best player in the draft at some point even if they aren’t run poorly.
I like the new weighting but think an even better tanking deterrent would be to award picks 4-14 or 5-14 in best-to-worst order that the lottery teams finish (e.g., SAC, MIA, and CHA begin the reverse-order draft at 4-5-6 or 5-6-7 if none of those three wins their way into the Top 3).