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2019 NBA Draft Lottery Primer

May 14th 2019 at 9:00am CST by Luke Adams

The 2019 NBA draft lottery will take place on Tuesday night in Chicago before Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals. The half-hour event will be broadcast on ESPN beginning at 7:30 pm central time.

As Tim Bontemps and Brian Windhorst of ESPN.com outline, there’s a ton at stake in the 2019 lottery, as many of the teams involved could badly use a player like Zion Williamson or Ja Morant. The results could also have an impact on the offseason’s Anthony Davis sweepstakes, since whichever club lands the No. 1 pick will immediately have a viable AD trade chip.

Here’s what you need to know heading into tonight’s lottery:

Pre-Lottery Draft Order:

The top 14 picks in the 2019 NBA draft would look like this if tonight’s lottery results don’t change the order:

  1. New York Knicks
  2. Cleveland Cavaliers
  3. Phoenix Suns
  4. Chicago Bulls
  5. Atlanta Hawks
  6. Washington Wizards
  7. New Orleans Pelicans
  8. Memphis Grizzlies
    • Note: The Celtics will receive this pick if it falls out of the top eight.
  9. Atlanta Hawks (from Mavericks)
    • Note: The Mavericks will keep this pick if it moves up into the top four.
  10. Minnesota Timberwolves
  11. Los Angeles Lakers
  12. Charlotte Hornets
  13. Miami Heat
  14. Boston Celtics (from Kings)
    • Note: The Sixers will receive this pick if it moves up to No. 1.

For the full pre-lottery draft order, click here.

Draft Lottery Odds:

The Knicks, Cavaliers, and Suns have the best odds to land the No. 1 pick. Each team has a 14.0% chance to pick first overall, and a 52.1% shot at a top-four pick.

From there, the Bulls (48.0%), Hawks (42.1%), and Wizards (37.2%) have the best odds at a top-four selection, with no other team above 26.3%.

For the full draft lottery odds for all 14 spots, click here.

Trades Affecting The Draft Lottery:

Three trades will have an impact on Tuesday night’s lottery results. They are as follows:

Celtics/Grizzlies

The Celtics own the Grizzlies‘ top-eight protected first-round pick, so they’ll receive that selection if it’s No. 9 or lower. There’s a 42.6% chance that happens.

Memphis also has a 26.3% chance of moving up into the top four. The worst-case scenario for the Grizzlies, who wouldn’t mind conveying their pick this year so it doesn’t become even more attractive in a future draft, would be for the pick to land at No. 8 — there’s a 31.1% chance of that.

If the Grizzlies keep the pick this year, they’d owe the Celtics their top-six protected first-round pick in 2020.

Hawks/Mavericks

The Hawks own the Mavericks‘ top-five protected first-round pick, so they’ll receive the selection if it’s No. 6 or lower. Technically, the Dallas pick can’t fall between 5-8 due to the team’s place in the lottery.

There’s a 26.3% chance that the Mavericks’ pick will move up into the top four, in which case Dallas would keep it. Atlanta has a 73.7% chance to end up with the selection, including a 46.4% chance that it’s at No. 9.

If the Mavericks keep the pick this year, they’d owe the Hawks their top-five protected first-round pick in 2020.

Kings/Celtics/Sixers

The Celtics own the Kings‘ first-round pick, which has a 95.2% chance to land at No. 14. However, there are two scenarios that could shake up the draft.

The pick has a 3.8% chance of moving up to the 2-4 range, in which case it would stick with Boston, giving the C’s a chance to draft a top-four player after appearing in the Eastern Conference Semifinals.

If the pick moves all the way up to No. 1 (1.0% chance), the Sixers would acquire the pick, sending their own first-rounder (No. 24) to Boston. In that long-shot scenario, Philadelphia would be in position to draft Williamson after playing in the Eastern Semifinals themselves.

Draft Lottery Representatives:

The representatives for each of this year’s lottery teams are as follows, according to a press release issued by the NBA:

  1. New York Knicks
    • On stage: Patrick Ewing (former player)
    • Lottery room: Allan Houston (special assistant to the GM)
  2. Cleveland Cavaliers
    • On stage: Nick Gilbert (son of team owner)
    • Lottery room: Brock Aller (senior director of basketball operations)
  3. Phoenix Suns
  4. Chicago Bulls
    • On stage: Horace Grant (special advisor to president/COO)
    • Lottery room: Joey Reinsdorf (son of president/COO)
  5. Atlanta Hawks
    • On stage: Jami Gertz (co-owner)
    • Lottery room: Michelle Leftwich (VP, salary cap administration)
  6. Washington Wizards
    • On stage: Raul Fernandez (vice chairman)
    • Lottery room: Tommy Sheppard (senior VP of basketball operations)
  7. New Orleans Pelicans
    • On stage: Alvin Gentry (head coach)
    • Lottery room: David Griffin (executive VP of basketball operations)
  8. Memphis Grizzlies
    • On stage: Elliot Perry (minority owner / director of player support)
    • Lottery room: Zach Kleiman (executive VP of basketball operations)
  9. Dallas Mavericks
    • On stage: Cynthia Marshall (CEO)
    • Lottery room: Keith Grant (assistant GM)
  10. Minnesota Timberwolves
    • On stage: Gersson Rosas (president of basketball operations)
    • Lottery room: Brad Ruiter (VP of communications)
  11. Los Angeles Lakers
    • On stage: Kyle Kuzma
    • Lottery room: Rob Pelinka (GM)
  12. Charlotte Hornets
    • On stage: James Borrego (head coach)
    • Lottery room: Buzz Peterson (assistant GM)
  13. Miami Heat
    • On stage: Alonzo Mourning (VP, player programs)
    • Lottery room: Andy Elisburg (senior VP of basketball operations / GM)
  14. Boston Celtics
    • On stage: Rich Gotham (president)
    • Lottery room: Mike Zarren (assistant GM)
  15. Philadelphia 76ers
    • On stage: Chris Heck (president)
    • Lottery room: Ian Hillman (VP, strategy & analytics)

First Year For Current Lottery Format:

This will be the first year that the NBA uses its new lottery system, which reduces the odds that the league’s very worst teams will land a top pick and makes the top four selections available via the lottery, instead of the top three.

As we outlined when we took a closer look at four potential lottery results, the new format could create a little more mayhem on lottery night.

For instance, in past years, there was a 60.5% chance that one of the league’s bottom three teams would secure the No. 1 pick, and only a 27.6% chance that a team in the 5-14 range of the lottery standings would do so. This year, those odds are 42.0% and 45.5%, respectively.

For full details on the new lottery format, click here.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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