Five Key Offseason Questions: New Orleans Pelicans

Like the Timberwolves, the Pelicans entered the 2018/19 season hoping to build on a promising return to the playoffs during the previous spring, but instead saw their year torpedoed by a trade request that led to a messy public saga.

Unlike Minnesota, New Orleans didn’t actually end up trading its star, but that didn’t help the team’s general manager save his job. Dell Demps was dismissed during the season and has since been replaced by David Griffin, a veteran executive who has an NBA championship on his résumé.

It’ll now be up to Griffin to decide what to do with Anthony Davis, but it’s not all bad news for the Pelicans’ incoming executive VP of basketball operations — by virtue of winning the draft lottery earlier this month, the team is positioned to secure a new franchise player, Zion Williamson, even if its current one has played his last game for the club.

Here are five key questions facing the franchise this summer:

1. Would David Griffin be willing to keep Anthony Davis with no long-term assurances?

Griffin and Davis met today in Los Angeles. According to a report, the two sides are expected to “continue a dialogue” about their future going forward. But for now, let’s assume that despite his best efforts, Griffin is unable to convince Davis to withdraw his trade request and recommit to the Pelicans.

Davis is still under contract for one more year before he can reach unrestricted free agency, and the Pelicans aren’t obligated to trade him. While AD may have burned some bridges with fans in New Orleans, he seemed to be getting along with his teammates and Alvin Gentry‘s coaching staff just fine through the end of the 2018/19 season. He also acknowledged at season’s end that it won’t really be up to him where he plays in 2019/20, admitting that he could return to the team next season.

All that is to say that Griffin and the Pelicans could roll the dice with their All-Star big man, keeping him on the roster to start the ’19/20 campaign. That would give the club more time to sell Davis on a future in New Orleans, and would give AD a chance to see what it’d be like to play alongside Williamson. If he’s still not sold by February, the Pels could flip him at the trade deadline and should still be able to secure a serious haul.

That approach would be a risky one though. If Davis is willing to bypass a super-max extension with the Pelicans this offseason, why should the team have any confidence that he’d change his mind a few months later? And if Davis should suffer a major injury as a Pelican in the fall or winter, his trade value would crater. By moving him this summer, the Pels could bring more suitors to the table and would increase their chances of maximizing the return for their top asset.

2. What kind of return could the Pelicans get for Davis?

If we assume the most likely outcome for Davis is a trade during the 2019 offseason, it’s worth exploring what the Pelicans might be able to get back for him. Chris Crouse’ examination of the top trade assets held by several potential Davis suitors is a good place to start.

The most attractive offer for Davis figures to depend on what sort of pieces the Pelicans value most. If they’re looking ahead to the distant future, a Knicks package headlined by this year’s No. 3 overall pick, several future selections (including Dallas’ 2021 unprotected first-rounder), and a youngster or two (the Pels would likely target Mitchell Robinson and Kevin Knox) could be tantalizing. The Lakers and Celtics could also offer packages heavy on draft picks and young prospects.

On the other hand, if New Orleans wants to try to contend right away, there are other teams that would be better fits. How aggressive might the Clippers be going after Davis, for instance? Because acquiring some combination of players from a group that features Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Landry Shamet, Lou Williams, Montrezl Harrell, and Danilo Gallinari could really appeal to New Orleans.

Ultimately, the Pelicans’ return for Davis could come down to one team holding a player New Orleans seriously covets. We’ve seen this happen several times in recent years — the Kings targeted Buddy Hield when they traded DeMarcus Cousins, the Pacers loved Victor Oladipo when trading Paul George, and the Spurs – who wanted an All-Star caliber player for Kawhi Leonard – zeroed in on DeMar DeRozan.

If there’s a specific player out there that the Pelicans are in love with, whether that’s someone like Jayson Tatum, Gilgeous-Alexander, or a target who comes out of left field like Oladipo did, that could give that player’s team a significant upper hand in the AD sweepstakes.

3. Does Griffin plan on rebuilding or retooling the roster?

When a new executive takes over an NBA front office, he generally has a few years to build the sort of team he wants to before he starts having to worry about being on the hot seat or making job-saving moves. That allows that exec to be patient as he acquires assets and lines up his new team’s salary cap favorably for the future.

An all-out rebuild along those lines in New Orleans is possible. If Griffin doesn’t see an immediate path to contention, he could shop both Davis and Jrue Holiday for long-term assets and would almost certainly end up with a boatload of them as he looks to build around Williamson.

But that’s probably not the most logical path for the new Pelicans exec, whose situation is a little different than it would be for someone taking over a typical lottery team. Williamson is the sort of prospect who can contribute right away, so it doesn’t necessarily make sense for the Pelicans to aim to be good in two or three years while they wait for him to develop into an impact player — he’s capable of being that player now.

Similarly, Holiday is under contract for at least two more seasons (he has a player option for 2021/22) on a reasonable deal, given the rising cap, and remains very much in his prime. New Orleans also has virtually no bad deals on its books outside of Solomon Hill‘s, and that contract ($12.76MM in 2019/20) will come off the cap a year from now, so there’s no need to wait several years to gain flexibility.

Even if Griffin ultimately decides to trade Davis, the players and picks he gets in return could complement Williamson and Holiday right away, or could be flipped into pieces that would. I’d expect the team to take that route. That doesn’t mean that Griffin will push all his chips in the middle in the hopes of short-term success, but there’s no need to tear everything down either. This is a core capable of getting back to the playoffs pretty soon.

4. Will Julius Randle be back with the Pelicans?

Randle, 24, just kept improving in 2018/19, averaging a career-best 21.4 PPG for the Pelicans on .524/.344/.731 shooting. Now, he’ll face an interesting decision, as his two-year contract with New Orleans features a $9MM player option for 2019/20.

Randle has never been a particularly strong defender, and the going rate for scoring big men who do most of their work close to the basket isn’t what it used to be. As such, it’s not a lock that Randle would do better on the open market than he would if he opts in for $9MM. Opting in would also put him a position to reach unrestricted free agency in 2020, which projects to be a weak FA class.

Still, I’d be a little surprised if Randle doesn’t explore the market this summer, and if he does, I’m not sure how aggressively the Pelicans will try to bring him back. Many of his offensive skills overlap with Zion’s, creating some uncertainty about how those two players would complement one another. If that pairing doesn’t work, Randle would likely have to come off the bench again. He may want to seek another opportunity that would give him a better chance at a starting role.

If Randle opts in or is willing to sign another short-term deal, New Orleans could welcome him back, but if not, the team may scour the market for a more defensive-minded big, or one that can spread the floor a little more on offense.

5. How about the rest of the Pelicans’ free agents and non-guaranteed players?

Only four Pelicans players – Davis, Holiday, Hill, and E’Twaun Moore – currently have guaranteed contracts for next season. However, the team still has control of a handful of young players via non-guaranteed salaries, team options, or restricted free agency.

Stanley Johnson and Cheick Diallo can be RFAs, while Jahlil Okafor has a minimum salary team option and Christian Wood, Frank Jackson, Kenrich Williams, and Dairis Bertans all have non-guaranteed minimum salaries.

Griffin, of course, didn’t acquire any of those players and won’t necessarily be attached to any of them, but a few of them look like good value plays. Okafor, Wood, Jackson, and Williams all flashed upside at times in 2018/19, and cost a total of about $6.4MM for next season. I’d be a little surprised if the club lets them get away for nothing.

The others are wild cards, but Johnson will be a free agent worth watching. I’m not particularly confident that the Pelicans will even issue him the $4.49MM qualifying offer necessary to make him a restricted free agent, but he just turned 23 years old today, and his three-and-D potential still exists. If New Orleans gives up in him and he lands in a favorable situation elsewhere, he’ll be a candidate to finally emerge as a reliable rotation player.

Check out the New Orleans Pelicans’ offseason salary cap outlook right here.

Salary information from Basketball Insiders was used in the creation of this post. Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.