Back in October, seven members of Hoops Rumors’ writing team made predictions for the 2018/19 season, attempting to name the top eight teams in each conference, the conference and championship winners, and the players and coaches who would take home this year’s major awards.
Revisiting preseason predictions several months later is always a humbling experience, as events that seemed inevitable in the fall never quite play out the way we expect during the season. But in the interest of full accountability, we’re taking a look back at those predictions today to see where we went wrong and which picks we got right (or at least close enough to claim a win).
Let’s dive in…
The Good:
We weren’t exactly going out on a limb, but six of us had the Warriors winning the NBA Finals, with two of us specifically identifying the Raptors as their opponent. That scenario is still in play.- Two of us predicted that Giannis Antetokounmpo would win the 2018/19 MVP award, and he currently appears to be the frontrunner among the three finalists.
- All seven of us picked either Luka Doncic, Trae Young, and Deandre Ayton for Rookie of the Year, and they’re the three finalists for the award.
- Elsewhere on the awards front, three of us had Rudy Gobert as our Defensive Player of the Year, and he remains in the running. Plus, three of us predicted Mike Budenholzer would win Coach of the Year — he’s one of the finalists.
The Bad:
- Not one of us predicted the Bucks would place higher than third in the Eastern Conference (they finished first). We were also too low on the Nuggets, with no one expecting them to come in higher than fourth in the West (they finished second).
- All seven of us expected the Heat and Wizards would make the playoffs in the East. Miami narrowly missed out, while Washington didn’t come close. We were also too high on the Pelicans in the West (five of us had them making the postseason).
- Sixth Man of the Year is a tricky award to predict, since rotations and lineups can change over the course of the season, but the fact that none of us had Lou Williams as our winner still isn’t great. None of our picks – including J.J. Redick and Eric Gordon, who didn’t last long as bench players – became finalists. To make matters worse, two of our Sixth Man selections – Tyreke Evans and Carmelo Anthony – are no longer even in the NBA.
The Ugly:
- The Celtics and Lakers made all of us look bad this year. All seven of us had Boston playing in the Eastern Conference Finals, with five of us putting Boston in the NBA Finals. As for the Lakers, we all predicted they’d make the playoffs, forecasting them to finish as high as third in the West. They finished 10th.
- It’s possible we were way too bullish on the idea of LeBron James having a transcendent year. Five of us had him as our 2018/19 MVP. He missed over a month during the season and barely made an All-NBA team.
- Apologies to Trail Blazers fans. Only three of us picked them to make the postseason, with no one putting them higher than seventh in the conference. They earned the No. 3 seed and made the Western Conference Finals.
- Most Improved Player is another difficult award to predict, but a couple of us were way off the mark in choosing Markelle Fultz. The former No. 1 overall pick played just 19 games in a disappointing sophomore season.
With the NBA Finals set to get underway and the major awards set to be unveiled in a few weeks, which of your own predictions for the 2018/19 season were right on the money or way off the mark? Head to the comment section below to boast about your foresight and/or laugh about your missteps.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
I had AD as MVP
Embiid as DPOY
Ayton as ROY
Budenholzer as COY
EC WC
1-Philly GSW
2-Milwaukee Lakers
3- Boston OKC
4- Washington NOLA
5-Toronto Denver
6-Indiana Portland
7-Detroit Houston
8-Charlotte Minnesotta
So not too good, not too bad, I can live with that
I’d thought for a while that the Bucks had more talent than their records the last few seasons indicated. I thought Bud would be a good hire for them, but I still didn’t predict them to be nearly as good as they’ve become.
I also had visions of Minnesota-era Kevin Love coming back and carrying the Cavs to an 8th seed (albeit with a likely sweep), but the only part of Love this year that resembled his Minnesota years was that he missed a huge chunk of the season with injuries.
Does it count that I had Toronto coming out of the East all season long? That’s until I changed my mind after watching game 1 in Milwaukee…. I thought the Bucks were too strong.
Kawhi Leonard showed up and changed everything. He’s been amazing.
I had Raptors first and Knicks last, but also Bucks only 5th and Pistons rolling in the playoffs. Worse, after advocating for the Nets so much, I only put them 11th.
GSW-HOU-UTA-DEN 1-4 and SGAlexander for ROY weren’t bad but I also had Blazers 10th and Melo 6th man.
So cmon, who won the office pool?
Since we’re checking the receipts…
Here’s what I had:
East:
Raptors – 2
Celtics – 4 (should have listened to my gut and put them under the Bucks and Sixers)
Bucks – 1
Sixers – 3
Pacers – 5
Heat – 10
Pistons – 8
Wizards – 11
West:
Rockets – 4
Warriors – 1
Lakers – 10 (biggest miss!)
Spurs – 7
Jazz – 5
Nuggets – 2
Trail Blazers – 3
Thunder – 6
Eastern Finals: Raptors over Bucks – YUP!
Western Finals: Rockets over Warriors – met earlier, all Warriors
NBA Finals: Warriors over Raptors – somehow I missed putting the Rockets in the final after saying they’d beat the Warriors… but this is the NBA final
MVP: Antetokounmpo – likely
ROY: Doncic (but barely, over Young) – likely
DPY: Gobert – maybe
6MY: Isaiah Thomas – way way way off!
MIP: Murray – way off!
COY: Budenholzer – likely
If I were picking today, I’d have Toronto over Golden State. Home court matters.
Know what matters even more than home court? Having all your stars healthy and ready to go. Durant will bring too little, too late — save for injuries ravaging the Raptors, this series won’t go to GSW.