Five Key Offseason Questions: Boston Celtics

No NBA team besides the defending-champion Warriors had higher expectations entering the 2018/19 season than the Celtics. After all, they’d come within one game of reaching the NBA Finals during the spring of 2018 without having Kyrie Irving and Gordon Hayward in their lineup. With those two stars back and LeBron James leaving the conference, what could go wrong?

As it turns out, a whole lot. The Celtics were disappointing and dysfunctional all season long, with Irving’s and Hayward’s returns resulting in an overcrowded rotation that led to chemistry issues. In an Eastern Conference that only really had three legit contenders, Boston earned the No. 4 seed and won a first-round series, but the team didn’t come close to winning the conference and may be headed for a major overhaul this offseason.

Here are five key questions facing the franchise this summer:

1. Are Kyrie Irving and Al Horford really goners?

Last fall, Irving announced to Celtics fans at a preseason event that he intended to re-sign with the team when he became eligible for free agency in 2019. Players always talk in platitudes about wanting to stick with their current teams, but Irving’s declaration seemed different — it was more definitive, and it was unprompted, rather than a response to a reporter’s question.

Still, that apparent commitment to the Celtics came nine months before Irving would hit the open market, and as we noted at the time, he was always free to change his mind depending on how the Celtics’ season went. Sure enough, halfway through a year in which he repeatedly – and publicly – expressed frustrations with his team and teammates, Irving changed course, telling reporters in February to ask him “on July 1” about his intentions for free agency.

Now, a return to Boston looks like an extreme long shot. The Celtics and their fans appear to be moving on from the Irving era, with several reports indicating that the Nets are the frontrunners for the star point guard. It looks like Kyrie is a goner.

The same is true of Horford, which is even more unexpected. The veteran big man had fit in well with the Celtics since signing a four-year, maximum-salary deal with the team in the summer of 2016. He had a player option for 2019/20, but always seemed pretty likely to either pick up that option or to turn it down to negotiate a new contract with the C’s.

Instead, he’ll decline it to reach the open market, and the Celtics are now preparing to lose Horford as well, as rumors swirl about the possibility of a four-year, $100MM+ offer waiting for him in free agency. It’s hard to blame the C’s for being reluctant to match such an offer for a 33-year-old, and it’s hard to blame Horford for leaving Boston for a shot at one last monster payday.

It doesn’t appear there’s any animosity between Horford and the Celtics. It simply comes down to a difference in opinion on his value. That difference in opinion will leave Boston with a big hole in its frontcourt.

2. How will the departures of Irving and Horford impact the Celtics’ cap outlook?

With Horford’s option and a maximum salary for Irving on their books, the Celtics would have been on the hook for nearly $63MM in additional guarantees. We would have been talking about them as a taxpaying team. Instead, they can realistically create the space necessary for a maximum-salary free agent.

The Celtics’ exact cap room will hinge on what they do with certain players. Do they want to bring back Marcus Morris? If so, retaining his Bird rights via his $10MM+ cap hold would make sense. How about Terry Rozier? He has a $9MM+ cap hold of his own. Guaranteeing Semi Ojeleye‘s non-guaranteed $1.6MM salary would also slight cut into the club’s flexibility.

If we assume Ojeleye returns along with the rest of the Celtics’ players on guaranteed contracts and the team renounces Morris while retaining Rozier, that would work out to about $25.8MM in cap room. Withdrawing Rozier’s qualifying offer and renouncing him too could get Boston up to about $34MM in room.

Losing Irving, Horford, Morris, Rozier, and Aron Baynes – who is being sent to Phoenix in a deal that was agreed to on draft night would decimate the Celtics’ rotation, but it could open up some interesting options in free agency — a player with between 7-9 years of NBA experience projects to have a maximum salary of $32.7MM (30% of the cap)

3. Will Terry Rozier be back?

In order to be a legit contender for a max free agent worth 30% of the cap, the Celtics would need to renounce Rozier. Based on his underwhelming 2018/19 numbers (9.0 PPG, 3.9 RPG, 2.9 APG, .387/.353/.785 shooting), that doesn’t look like a bad idea.

Still, Rozier never seemed comfortable in his role last season after having taken on more responsibilities during the 2018 postseason. In those playoffs, he started all 19 games for Boston, averaging 16.5 PPG, 5.7 APG, and 5.3 RPG in 36.6 minutes per contest and setting himself up for what looked like a big payday in the summer of 2019.

With Irving apparently headed elsewhere this offseason, the idea of re-signing Rozier looks more appealing. Rozier’s subpar ’18/19 performance might limit his appeal to other teams, reducing the odds of Boston having to match a big offer sheet. And if the C’s are willing to hand him the reins at point guard, his attitude and his numbers may be a whole lot better in 2019/20.

If I had to bet though, I’d expect the Celtics to move on from Rozier as well as Irving. President of basketball operations Danny Ainge recently spoke about wanting to field a roster full of players who are willing to play any role asked of them, so retaining a player like Rozier – who said after the season that he “might have to go” if the C’s wanted to bring him back in a similar role – is a risk. It could be just a matter of time until his discontent resurfaces.

4. How will the Celtics use their potential cap room?

After historically not being a top destination for elite free agents, the Celtics had success on the open market in 2016 and 2017, when they secured Horford and Hayward, two of the best players available in those offseasons.

They could try their luck in free agency again this summer, especially if Irving and Rozier both depart. That would open the door for the C’s to make a run at a top FA point guard like Kemba Walker, who has been linked to Boston, or even an RFA such as D’Angelo Russell or Malcolm Brogdon. All three players have strong catch-and-shoot numbers, which could make them nice fits in an offense that also includes other play-makers like Hayward and Jayson Tatum.

Spending all their cap room on a point guard would leave the Celtics short-handed up front though. With both Horford and Baynes apparently on the way out, Boston could look to use most or all of its cap room to address that hole instead, leaving point guard duties to Marcus Smart.

The Celtics have been mentioned as a possible suitor for Nikola Vucevic, though I’d be a little surprised if Ainge made the Magic center his big summer acquisition. On the trade market, Clint Capela and Steven Adams are among the centers whose teams have reportedly been trying to move them. Adams, in particular, could probably be had for a real discount at this point, as the cap-strapped Thunder looked to avoid another huge tax bill.

It’s not clear if any of those players really move the needle for the Celtics though, so it’ll be fascinating to see how Ainge makes use of his cap flexibility. With Boston not believed to be in the running for the summer’s truly elite free agents, the club will have to assess whether it makes sense to spread its money out among multiple targets or whether making a substantial investment in one player would help avoid overcrowding the rotation again.

5. Are the Celtics prepared to build around Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown?

Assuming the Celtics don’t land a major impact player in free agency, their star power would take a hit. Between them, Irving and Horford have made 11 All-Star appearances. Of the remaining players on Boston’s roster, only Hayward has made an All-Star team, and it’s not clear if he’ll ever return to his pre-injury form.

In other words, resetting the Celtics’ roster could put a lot of pressure on two of the team’s young players: Tatum and Brown. Long mentioned as a possible centerpiece in an offer for Anthony Davis, Tatum looks like a safe bet to stay put now, and the C’s will be counting on him to take a leap forward in 2019/20 after an up-and-down sophomore year.

Tatum flashed All-Star potential during the 2018 playoffs, averaging 20.3 PPG on .509/.333/.836 shooting in the team’s final two rounds as a 20-year-old. Questionable decision-making and shot selection plagued him at times last season, but he’s still very young and very capable of establishing himself as a franchise cornerstone.

Brown may not have as high a ceiling as Tatum, but he has shown strong upside as a two-way player as well, and he’s still just 22. With more defined roles in 2019/20 – and without Irving around to lecture them in the media – Tatum and Brown could be breakout candidates. But it remains to be seen how confident the C’s are in counting on those sort of breakout performances from the two youngsters.

Check out the Boston Celtics’ offseason salary cap outlook right here.

Salary information from Basketball Insiders was used in the creation of this post. Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.