Few NBA players make the sort of leap that Pascal Siakam did from his second season to his third. The former No. 27 overall pick appeared to be developing into a solid role player during his first two years in the league, but his modest numbers in 2017/18 didn’t portend the breakout that was around the corner.
Still, there were some hints leading up to the 2018/19 season that Siakam was capable of taking a big step forward. Stories surfaced in the offseason about his eye-opening summer workouts and scrimmages at UCLA, where he worked with player development coach Rico Hines and impressed stars like James Harden and Paul George.
Although a one-year ascension like Siakam’s – from solid rotation piece to borderline All-NBA candidate – may be rare, it’s worth scouring the league to see if there are candidates to make that same kind of jump in the 2019/20 season.
D.J. Foster of The Ringer explored this topic earlier in the offseason, identifying another Raptors forward, OG Anunoby, as one candidate to have a Siakam-esque breakthrough year. Foster also singled out Trail Blazers center Zach Collins, Grizzlies guard De’Anthony Melton, Knicks center Mitchell Robinson, and Kings big man Harry Giles as contenders to be “the next Siakam.”
While I like Foster’s list, I’ll add a couple more names for consideration. Spurs guard Dejounte Murray was generating the same kind of hype as Siakam leading up to the 2018/19 season, but Murray’s ascent was derailed by an ACL tear that sidelined him for the year. If he’s 100% healthy, the former 29th overall pick is still capable of making the star turn that San Antonio envisioned a year ago.
Meanwhile, in Portland, second-year guard Anfernee Simons has been the subject of buzz around the NBA in recent months. The Trail Blazers showed confidence in his ability to contribute right away when they traded away backup point guard Evan Turner this summer. Given Simons’ age (20) and the fact that Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum will handle most of the play-making responsibilities in Portland, it’s not clear if he’s ready for stardom quite yet, but the franchise clearly has high hopes for him.
What do you think? Are there any young players around the NBA who are poised for breakout seasons after flying mostly under the radar so far? Who do you think has the best chance to be 2019/20’s version of Siakam?
Head to our comment section below to share your two cents!
Terry Rozier is in line for a big year in Charlotte. Somebody will have to take the over 40 ppg lost in the departures of Kemba, Jeremy Lamb, Tony Parker, and Frank Kaminsky.
Yeah I was thinking that some Hornet is due for a breakout year. Could be Rozier, but could also be Dwayne Bacon.
I’ve also got my eye on Troy Brown of the Wizards, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander of OKC, Justin Jackson of the Mavs, and Dillon Brooks of the Grizzlies. They are all starters on teams that are likely to be non-playoff teams, unless Dallas surprises that is.
As far as actual good teams, I’d probably say either Taurean Prince of the Nets or Landry Shamet of the Clippers.
I love Landry shamet of the Clippers. I think he’s a star in the making. Not a bad consolation prize in the Tobias Harris trade.
Shamet is a great call
Looter in a riot
Scary Terry!
DERRICK JONES JR
Certainly not going to have as meteoric of a rise, but Keita Bates-Diop is a guy I think will take a big step.
Yes, I’m biased.
I really liked KBD out of OSU, I think he’s got a chance to have a good year
He was picked way lower than he should have been due to concerns that his rise would be slower than it should be. After seeing him in Vegas, this appears true. He needs to be “large & in charge” to be comfortable. But he is rising & worth putting in with starters.
Marcus Smart. He’ll bump his shooting numbers up to 46%fg and 38% 3pts cruising to a 14.5ppg 6.0apg 4.5rbs and 2.2spg with .7 blocks. Defense, like with Siakam, will be the real cause for him to be mentioned in the all nba discussion, but maintaining last years efficiency on offense wont be enough. While most C’s fans would be happy to watch him average last year’s shooting #s for the rest of his career, but im gonna raise the bar i say he makes a sizeable jump in productivity on offense, maybe even the best season of his career.
It’s possible, but I think Kemba is an upgrade over an overrated Kyrie Irving.
Yeah minutes will certainly be hard to come by in order for him to achieve said numbers, and that’s with heyward playing at the 4. If that experiment goes south the minutes crunch will be even greater. But he can guard 1-3 so finding 25-30 minutes of playing gtime (what id consider the floor for him to reach said averages) shouldnt be hard Kemba really only plays the 1
Honestly Gary if smart regresses to his sub 40% shooting numbers like in years past then to me hes not really regressing. The one year would be the outlier, hard to say he ever really improved with just a single year of mediocre shooting numbers to his name. Agree that his value is real and tangible in the now with his hustle and defense, but would love to see him put it all together with even mediocre offensive output. But ive seen him jack up many a three and feel about as good on the last as i did the first, so this is likely a pipe dream.
Marcus Smart is the best he’s going to be right now. He’s already proven his worth with his floor game and hustle and Superman defense. Those shooting numbers are not going to improve in fact they might get worse over time…, slowly… Smart is still young enough they won’t drop off a cliff.
I’ll reframe the question: Which players will be borderline All-Stars? Not just better, but top-30, top-40 in the league better?
De’Aaron Fox is one guy. I know people think he’s good now but he has a chance to be unstoppable-good.
John Collins is another. His game isn’t flashy enough to get attention but he fills up a stat sheet. When they start winning he’ll start getting props.
Despite public opinion, Clint Capela is a borderline All-Star.
Lol.
My opinion is that capella is good because James Harden is out of this world amazing. A guy like Harden makes good players great. Away from mr. Unguardable and capella is just a guy out there. A capable NBA starter but not an All-Star.
Jamal Murray
No love for Thomas Bryant?!?
There’s opportunity and ability for him & Troy Brown to advance for sure.
It’s hard to think of a Siakam-like young pro riser.
I think most of the suggestions on this page so far will miss, but then I can only add Pat Conaton and Caris Levert, not sure things. A week ago I would have added Rodion Kurocs. The rookies will be better than predicted though.
Luke’s guys Murray & Simons are extra-skinny in the lower legs like Siakam and have had injury issues possibly from that, while Siakam somehow has not. I mean, Siakam’s health is amazing, missing 3 games in 2 years including long playoff runs, what is his secret?
Foster’s guys: Anunoby is invisible and took a step back; Robinson will lose his awkwardness eventually but had not by Vegas; Giles fouls too much, 6.6 per 36′; Melton won’t start ahead of Tyus Jones, only 2 years older.
Zach Collins though could get a great jump this year playing the 4.
I think Fox, Collins, Murray & SGA have already “broken through”.
Troy Brown may be a year behind Siakam.
The gunner’s perch in Charlotte may pass from Walker right past Rozier to Bacon, ha!
Shamet may get buried.