Before the 2019/20 NBA season got underway, we polled Hoops Rumors readers on the win totals for each of the league’s 30 teams, using over/unders from major betting sites. From the Bucks (57.5 wins) to the Hornets (23.5), our readers made their picks for whether each team’s win total would land over or under the projected figures.
Unfortunately, one effect of the stoppage caused by the coronavirus pandemic was to ensure that no NBA team will actually play a full 82-game schedule this season, which means many of those over/under predictions won’t be resolved.
If you had bet on a team’s win total at a Vegas casino or a major sportsbook, the abridged season may have resulted in your bet being voided. But since our predictions were just for fun, we might as well take a look back at them to see which ones were on track to be right or wrong — and which ones were still very much up in the air when the season was suspended in March.
Let’s dive in…
Eastern Conference
Picks that were on pace to be right:
- Milwaukee Bucks (53-12): Over 57.5
- Miami Heat (41-24): Over 43.5
- Indiana Pacers (39-26): Over 46.5
- Chicago Bulls (22-43): Under 33.5
- New York Knicks (21-45): Under 27.5
- Cleveland Cavaliers (19-46): Under 24.5
Our voters seemingly had a much better handle on the Central than on the other two Eastern divisions, accurately picking four of five Central over/unders while only nailing one team in the Atlantic and one in the Southeast.
Of these six teams, the Bucks and Heat were virtual locks to surpass their projected win totals and hit the over. The Pacers would have had to go 7-10 down the stretch to miss their over, while the Bulls would’ve had to go 12-5 to avoid the under — neither was particularly likely.
The Knicks and Cavaliers were the only two that were really up in the air here. They only would’ve had to go 7-9 and 6-11, respectively, to exceed their projections. That wouldn’t have been out of the question.
Picks that were on pace to be wrong:
- Toronto Raptors (46-18): Under 46.5
- Boston Celtics (43-21): Under 49.5
- Philadelphia 76ers (39-26): Over 54.5
- Brooklyn Nets (30-34): Over 43.5
- Orlando Magic (30-35): Over 41.5
- Washington Wizards (24-40): Under 26.5
- Charlotte Hornets (23-42): Under 23.5
- Detroit Pistons (20-46): Over 37.5
- Atlanta Hawks (20-47): Over 33.5
The Atlantic didn’t play out like our voters expected this season, with the Raptors and Celtics outperforming regular-season expectations, while the Sixers and Nets were on track to fall short of theirs.
The bottom of the conference was a bit of a mess as well. The Wizards and Hornets were expected to be among the East’s worst teams, but weren’t quite as bad as anticipated. The Pistons and Hawks, meanwhile, fell short of their goals for the season in part because they were without key frontcourt players (Blake Griffin and John Collins) for big chunks of the year.
In the middle, the Magic still had a chance to get to 42 wins if they’d been able to recapture their end-of-season form from 2018/19, when they followed a 20-31 start with a 22-9 finish.
Western Conference
Picks that were on pace to be right:
- Los Angeles Lakers (49-14): Over 51.5
- Los Angeles Clippers (44-20): Over 54.5
- Denver Nuggets (43-22): Over 53.5
- Utah Jazz (41-23): Under 53.5
- Houston Rockets (40-24): Under 54.5
- Dallas Mavericks (40-27): Over 41.5
- New Orleans Pelicans (28-36): Under 39.5
- Minnesota Timberwolves (19-45): Under 35.5
Some of these were pretty close calls. The Clippers were on pace to win 56 games; the Nuggets were on track to get to 54 victories; the Jazz were on pace to get to 53 wins; the Rockets were on track to win 51 games; and the Pelicans‘ soft end-of-season schedule would given them a realistic chance to get to 40+ wins.
Other predictions were more comfortable victories though. The Lakers and Mavericks were projected to blow past their preseason over/under numbers, and the Timberwolves would’ve had to finish the season on a 17-1 run to avoid falling short of their projected win total.
Importantly, eight teams are listed in this section, which means our voters had a winning record on their Western Conference picks!
Picks that were on pace to be wrong:
- Oklahoma City Thunder (40-24): Under 32.5
- Memphis Grizzlies (32-33): Under 27.5
- Portland Trail Blazers (29-37): Over 46.5
- Sacramento Kings (28-36): Over 38.5
- San Antonio Spurs (27-36): Over 46.5
- Phoenix Suns (26-39): Under 29.5
- Golden State Warriors (15-50): Over 48.5
We were way off on the Thunder, Grizzlies, Trail Blazers, Spurs, and Warriors, who had already clinched their respective overs or unders even before the season went on hiatus. The Kings and Suns, at least, probably would have finished in the relative vicinity of their preseason projections.
For a second straight season, our readers finished with a 14-16 record in their over/under picks, though this year definitely comes with an asterisk — maybe we can talk ourselves into believing we would’ve gotten to at least .500 if the season had played out in full.
Looking back at the preseason projections, along with your predictions, which team surprised or disappointed you the most? Jump into the comment section below to share your thoughts!
Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
It was ridiculous to think the Warriors would win more than 49 games, even if Curry had stayed healthy for most of an 82-game season. Even with a healthy Curry and Klay there’s still no guarantee they will win 50 games next year. They should be around 51.5 or 52.5 for next season’s over/under.
The only team you should not argue is Warriors
I have Rockets at 5th seed 50 wins
I’ll bet the farm on the over that one.
I will bet you next year the Warriors will have a better record than the Rockets. That is a easy bet. What you missed was it was more than just Curry and Thompson hurt. Almost every player was hurt on the Warriors. They also traded their assets away once they knew no playoffs. They played with G league players and sometimes with only 8 players. Rockets are very old if they don’t win this year its going to be a long decade for you.
We all thought Toronto was gonna miss the playoffs this year to and look how that turned out..
The thing that annoys me the most is, with all these games happening at one place, why can’t they get some 4k cameras in there and make these games available in 4k. So stupid.
No clue why everyone was so down on OKC. They actually had a good roster despite the optics of trading Westbrook and George.
The reason OKC over-performed to such an extent was simply due to the fact that CP3 managed to stay healthy the entire season for the first time in 5 years. Of course there’s still a very good chance his hamstrings decide to act up over the next few weeks, but their chances of advancing past the first round are slim at best.
So because their best player played? Riveting insight.
Chris Paul may barely be the Thunder’s best player right now, but he won’t be for long. Older players like him and LeBron will struggle next year with the short offseason. Don’t be surprised if CP3 falls off a cliff in 2021 while his team tries to unload his gargantuan salary.
Predicting demises of players & teams based on liking will make predictions more like wishes. Your least favorite OKC & LAL finished ahead of fav HOU, ouch.
What is not biased is to say that the Cavs can win 6 of 11 and beat the over/under when they just won 5 of 11 to finish the season! Of course the players would still be excluded from recruiting in Orlando by Silver’s rules, speaking of ouches.
Everyone was down because they got Chris Paul. CP3 has been thought of as a bad player simply because people do not think he is worth his salary. But CP3 is still arguably a top 5 point guard of all time and obviously still has quite a bit left in the tank.
This is one of the main reason why I wish salaries were not public knowledge. Everyone was down on John Wall even before his injury simply because of his contract. I do not care one bit how much a player makes, I only care about what a player can do on the court. Yes, their salary can hamstring a team, but that’s not my problem.
So very true hiflew! Also I would like to add is not CP3’s fault neither if inept FO’s like HOU gives him a terrible contract… fans always blame the players, but they should blame their own teams, that is what been a fan is all about criticizing your own team, not always thinking they do everything right!