Mobile Menu
HEADLINES

2020 NBA Draft Lottery Primer

August 20th 2020 at 5:00pm CST by Luke Adams

The 2020 NBA draft lottery will take place on Thursday night prior to Game 2 of the Western Conference Quarterfinals between the Lakers and Trail Blazers. The half-hour event will be broadcast on ESPN beginning at 7:30 pm central time.

This year’s draft class doesn’t feature a consensus No. 1 pick like Zion Williamson, but the team that wins the 2020 lottery will get its pick of an intriguing group of top prospects that includes LaMelo Ball, Anthony Edwards, and James Wiseman, among others.

Here’s what you need to know heading into tonight’s lottery:

Pre-Lottery Draft Order:

This year’s draft lottery features the 14 teams that didn’t make the playoffs, sorted by their records as of March 11, the date the 2019/20 season was suspended. The top 14 picks in the 2020 NBA draft would look like this if tonight’s lottery results don’t change the order:

  1. Golden State Warriors
  2. Cleveland Cavaliers
  3. Minnesota Timberwolves
  4. Atlanta Hawks
  5. Detroit Pistons
  6. New York Knicks
  7. Chicago Bulls
  8. Charlotte Hornets
  9. Washington Wizards
  10. Phoenix Suns
  11. San Antonio Spurs
  12. Sacramento Kings
  13. New Orleans Pelicans
  14. Boston Celtics (from Memphis Grizzlies)
    • Note: The Grizzlies will keep this pick if it moves up into the top four (2.4% chance).

For the full pre-lottery draft order, click here.

Draft Lottery Odds:

The Warriors, Cavaliers, and Timberwolves have the best odds to land the No. 1 pick. Each of those three teams has a 14.0% chance to pick first overall, and a 52.1% shot at a top-four pick.

From there, the Hawks (48.1%), Pistons (42.1%), Wizards (37.2%), and Bulls (32.0%) have the best odds to land in the top four.

For the full draft lottery odds for all 14 spots, click here.

Trades Affecting The Draft Lottery:

Only one trade will have an impact on Thursday night’s lottery results. Here are the details on that deal:

Celtics/Grizzlies

The Celtics own the Grizzlies‘ top-six protected first-round pick, so they’ll receive that selection if it’s No. 7 or lower. There’s a 97.6% chance that will happen, since Memphis ranks 14th in the lottery standings.

The pick will either land at No. 14 or move into the top four, in which case the Grizzlies would keep it. There’s only a 2.4% chance that will happen, but Memphis did move up several spots in the lottery a year ago — perhaps the team can get lucky again in 2020.

In the unlikely event that the Grizzlies keep the pick this year, they’d owe the Celtics their unprotected first-round pick in 2021.

Draft Lottery Representatives:

Due to the coronavirus pandemic, this year’s draft lottery will be a virtual event, so representatives for each of this year’s lottery teams will be joining the broadcast remotely.

Those reps are as follows, according to a press release issued by the NBA:

  1. Golden State Warriors: Stephen Curry
  2. Cleveland Cavaliers: Brad Daugherty (former player)
  3. Minnesota Timberwolves: D’Angelo Russell
  4. Atlanta Hawks: Jami Gertz (co-owner)
  5. Detroit Pistons: Troy Weaver (general manager)
  6. New York Knicks: Leon Rose (president of basketball operations)
  7. Chicago Bulls: Arturas Karnisovas (executive VP of basketball operations)
  8. Charlotte Hornets: Devonte’ Graham
  9. Washington Wizards: Rui Hachimura
  10. Phoenix Suns: James Jones (general manager)
  11. San Antonio Spurs: Peter J. Holt (team owner)
  12. Sacramento Kings: De’Aaron Fox
  13. New Orleans Pelicans: Trajan Langdon (general manager)
  14. Memphis Grizzlies: Elliot Perry (minority owner/director of player support)

Lottery Format:

This will be the second year that the NBA uses its revamped lottery system, which reduces the odds that the league’s very worst teams will land a top pick and makes the top four selections available via the lottery, instead of the top three.

One year is too small a sample size to draw any conclusions about the new format, but 2019’s results showed that the smoothed-out odds have the potential to create a little more mayhem on lottery night.

A year ago, the Pelicans, Grizzlies, and Lakers claimed three of the top four picks despite ranking seventh, eight, and 11th, respectively, in the lottery standings. If that were to happen again this year, it’d mean the Bulls at No. 1, the Hornets at No. 2, and the Spurs at No. 4.

Before the NBA changed its lottery format, there was a 60.5% chance that one of the league’s bottom three teams would secure the No. 1 pick, and only a 27.6% chance that a team in the 5-14 range of the lottery standings would do so. Now, those odds are 42.0% and 45.5%, respectively.

For full details on the revamped lottery format, click here.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Retweet 2 Share 0 Send via email0
View Comments (22)