With the Bucks‘ season over, all eyes are on Giannis Antetokounmpo. Last season’s Most Valuable Player has said he has no intention of asking to be traded out of Milwaukee, and has given indications that he intends to stay with the team long-term. But until he officially signs a contract extension, there will be those who question his commitment to the Bucks.
Unsurprisingly, as Shams Charania of The Athletic confirmed earlier today, the Bucks intend to put a five-year, super-max extension offer on the table for Giannis as soon as they’re eligible to do so. That extension window will open once the 2020/21 free agent period begins, but it remains to be seen exactly how much the offer will be worth. Some reports have suggested it’ll be valued at upwards of $250MM, while others have said $220MM.
When it comes to maximum-salary extensions, imprecise projections are nothing new. By definition, extensions go into effect in future league years, and max deals are based on a percentage of the cap (35%, in the case of the super-max). Until the salary cap figures are finalized for the first year of the extension, we can’t know the exact value of a maximum-salary deal.
In Giannis’ case, there are a pair of factors increasing the uncertainty and resulting in the wide range in projections:
- An extension for Antetokounmpo would go into effect in 2021/22, rather than in 2020/21. That’s still two league years away, creating an extra layer of uncertainty about where the cap will eventually land.
- The coronavirus pandemic – and everything else that has gone on during this NBA season, including the league’s standoff with Chinese partners – has impacted the league’s revenues and upended its usual cap projections. Until the NBA audits the ’19/20 season and has a better sense of what revenues for the ’20/21 campaign will look like, projecting a ’21/22 cap figure will be extremely difficult.
As a result of all this uncertainty, it will be some time before we know how much Antetokounmpo would earn if he accepts a five-year, super-max contract. Still, we can project some hypothetical scenarios based on potential cap figures.
Previously, this season’s cap ($109,141,000) was projected to increase to $115MM in 2020/21 and then $125MM in ’21/22. Now, it appears more likely that next season’s cap will be about the same as this year’s. That could be true again in 2021/22 — or perhaps the jump to $115MM will be delayed by a year. A small dip – maybe to $105MM or so – isn’t even out of the question. So let’s break down all of those scenarios and examine what a super-max deal for Giannis would look like in each case…
(Note: If you’re a mobile/app user, you can view the full chart by turning your phone sideways.)
| Year/Cap | $105MM |
$109.141MM |
$115MM |
$125MM |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021/22 | $36,750,000 | $38,199,350 | $40,250,000 | $43,750,000 |
| 2022/23 | $39,690,000 | $41,255,298 | $43,470,000 | $47,250,000 |
| 2023/24 | $42,630,000 | $44,311,246 | $46,690,000 | $50,750,000 |
| 2024/25 | $45,570,000 | $47,367,194 | $49,910,000 | $54,250,000 |
| 2025/26 | $48,510,000 | $50,423,142 | $53,130,000 | $57,750,000 |
| Total | $213,150,000 | $221,556,230 | $233,450,000 | $253,750,000 |
As our chart shows, if the cap really does stand pat for the next couple years, a super-max for Antetokounmpo would be worth more than $30MM less than what was originally projected.
That shouldn’t provide Giannis with any incentive to leave Milwaukee. The super-max option would still be way more lucrative than an outside offer from any other team, which would be limited to four years starting at 30% of the cap. Based on the four hypothetical cap scenarios listed above, a rival team’s best four-year offer would range from $135.5MM to $161.3MM.
Still, the lingering cap uncertainty could incentivize the star forward to take a wait-and-see approach to extension talks. After all, he’ll still be super-max eligible when his contract ends in 2021 — by waiting until that point, he’d have a much clearer idea of what the deal would actually be worth when he signs it.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
It’s basically like winning the lottery no matter where the salary cap ends up at. Just like how I will never understand why so many more people buy lottery tickets when the jackpots are in the hundreds of millions instead of just $50M or so. Honestly, when you’re earning over $200M what difference does a few million more or less going to make?
Lol Agreed. It’s like people, when the lottery jackpot is “only” $56mil, they’re like, “What? Sacrifice my 2 bucks for 56 mil? That’s only 30 mil after taxes! Nah, I’ll wait until there’s some real money in the pot.” Smh
But those nba players – and I’d imagine ANY player – wants every penny they can get. I trained a player who coulda went to the Cavs on a max deal but stayed with Milwaukee for the extra year. He said a championship in Cleveland wasn’t guaranteed but the extra year at 19 mil was!
Made sense.
Given how quickly his career wrapped up, he did need it, financially.
Well to rationalize, if the Cavs did get that ’07 title, maybe Bron doesn’t return to get that ’16 title.
It would be kind of like your co-worker doing the same job as you and agreeing to take less money for it – and then what if all your co-workers did the same thing? The new value for your labour has been established so you need to take less money too – sure the business owners have the money to pay you more, but why do they need to now when they can pocket it instead. Although….now that I put it that way, I guess you’d just point out that the NBA owners are also making over 200 million so what difference does a few million to them make? Right – or we just usually worried about the workers making the superfluous millions?
That’s true, but a few thousand per year for people like us makes a lot bigger difference in our lives than a few million per year does for a star athlete. So what if they have to settle for buying the $20M yacht instead of the slightly fancier $25M one.
We can make all the analogies we want, but there is no NBA player – regardless of salary – that would put, say, $250,000 cash in a gym bag, take it to a park, and then purposely leave it there for someone to find and have a great day.
I wish!
Ingram max could be $181 million
If he signs 181 million, he has a worse contract than Wiggins 95 million remaining
Is Rudy Gobert supermax higher than Giannis?
It’d be the same, though I doubt the Jazz will offer it.
Thanks!
Is this indicating that the value of his super max contract (the 5 year extension period) is the same whether he signs it this off season or next (because it’s the cap in each year that determines that year’s salary)-? If so, the Bucks should feel good about their chances.
Yep, that’s right.
I’m not against players making money. They should get what they can. What market can offer. It’s the teams who are dumb sometimes. But look at the numbers, ok. I mean I love this game.
Giannis gets 36.7 out 105 right. Tax don’t start till like 130. His contract is 35% of team cap. Which means it will take Luck to build a winner around him. IMO it should be around 30% of team cap. At least then you have a real shot. If you team is contending for title. Then you should be able to go over cap. The NBA takes longer to build a winner. Not like NFL where 3 players can come in and start. NBA half the lottery picks don’t become stars. And if you are not wise. you can get locked in to bad contracts and draft mediocrity. Picking 10-14 for yrs. I’m no Bulls fan. But when MJ was first to get all this sponsors money. He never asked for raise. Even signed for less. So his team could get paid. Today Harden signs 200 mill Adidas. Then wants to get maxed out. And the guy is a one way player. No player IMO deserves a max contract. Unless they are a 2way player. Yes offense pays. Harden is great offensive player. But at least challenge for 3rd team defense. Every yr. And if you’re a max player. And you can’t win when it counts All you doing is maxing my money. These days you have to careful you you max out. Then you have build the right team around him. Giannis is a max guy to me. I love CP3. But I would have never maxed him out, at that age.