Hoops Rumors is previewing the 2020 offseason for all 30 NBA teams. We’re looking at the key questions facing each club, as well as the roster decisions they’ll have to make this fall. Today, we’re focusing on the Utah Jazz.
Salary Cap Outlook
The only way the Jazz could realistically create cap space this offseason without cost-cutting roster moves would be if Mike Conley opts out of his $34.5MM salary for 2020/21. That won’t happen, so it’s a safe bet that Utah will operate as an over-the-cap club.
The Jazz’ ability to use their full mid-level exception ($9.26MM) and bi-annual exception ($3.62MM) may hinge on how they handle Jordan Clarkson‘s free agency, since a new deal for Clarkson would move team salary much closer to the tax. In that scenario, they may be limited to the taxpayer MLE ($5.72MM).
Our full salary cap preview for the Jazz can be found right here.
Roster Decisions To Watch
Options:
- Mike Conley, early termination option: $34,502,132
Non-Guaranteed Contracts:
- Georges Niang ($1,783,557)
- Rayjon Tucker ($1,517,981)
- Note: Partially guaranteed for $340K.
- Juwan Morgan ($1,517,981)
- Miye Oni ($1,517,981)
- Nigel Williams-Goss ($1,517,981)
Two-Way Contracts:
- Jarrell Brantley (expiring)
- Justin Wright-Foreman (expiring)
Free Agents:
- Jordan Clarkson (Bird)
- Emmanuel Mudiay (Non-Bird)
2020 Draft Assets
First Round:
- No. 23 overall pick
Second Round:
- None
The Jazz could have picked as high as No. 21 in the first round based on their record, which put them in a tie with Houston and Oklahoma City. However, Utah lost the three-way tiebreaker and ended up at No. 23 instead.
Utah’s second-round pick (No. 51) was originally traded to Cleveland during the 2018/19 season for Kyle Korver. It changed hands three more times in subsequent deals, ultimately ending up with Golden State.
Three Key Offseason Questions
1. Will Donovan Mitchell sign a contract extension this offseason?
Both Mitchell and Rudy Gobert will be eligible to sign new contracts this offseason, but they aren’t necessarily equally likely to get extensions.
Mitchell’s case is the simpler one. Having been drafted in the 2017 lottery, he’s entering the fourth and final year of his rookie contract, making him eligible for a rookie scale extension. If he signs a new contract, it would go into effect during the 2021/22 season and could have a starting salary worth up to 25% of that year’s cap — or even 30% of the cap, if he makes an All-NBA team next season.
It seems almost certain that Utah will offer Mitchell a maximum-salary deal sooner rather than later. In the unlikely event that the Jazz were still on the fence about that decision, Mitchell’s performance in seven playoff games this season certainly helped seal the deal — he couldn’t quite lead them to a series win, but averaged 36.3 PPG, 5.0 RPG, and 4.9 APG with a .529/.516/.948 shooting line.
While negotiations between the two sides should be pretty simple, they’ll need to agree on possible Rose Rule language in an extension. That shouldn’t be too much of a challenge, especially if they use last year’s Ben Simmons and Jamal Murray rookie scale extensions as points of comparison.
The language in Simmons’ agreement with Philadelphia boosted his starting salary to 28% of the cap for a Third Team All-NBA nod, and that figure would have increased to 30% if he made the First Team. The language in Murray’s deal with Denver – which included a salary at 26% of the cap for a Third Team All-NBA spot – was similar, albeit slightly more team-friendly.
The Jazz and Mitchell should be able to work out something in that same neighborhood, rewarding him with a slightly more lucrative long-term contract if he makes the leap to become an All-NBA player in 2020/21.
2. Will Rudy Gobert sign a new extension of his own this offseason?
Gobert’s extension eligibility will create a trickier situation for the Jazz. At age 28, the two-time Defensive Player of the Year is four years older than Mitchell and it’s unclear whether how much room his game still has to grow, so the club will have to keep that in mind as it considers a new long-term investment.
Mitchell’s next deal will also be a little more cost-controlled than Gobert’s could be. Even with an All-NBA berth next season, Mitchell can’t sign a rookie scale extension exceeding 30% of the cap. Due to Gobert’s All-NBA nods and DPOY awards, he has qualified for a veteran extension that can be worth up to 35% of the cap in 2021/22.
That may not seem like a substantial difference, but it adds up over the course of four or five years. If we assume the cap will be $115MM in 2021/22, an extension starting at 35% of the cap would be worth $40.25MM in year one and $233.45MM over five seasons. A 30% deal would start at $34.5MM and would be worth $200.1MM over five years.
Now, just because Gobert has qualified for a super-max extension doesn’t mean that the Jazz have to offer him one. Standard veteran extension rules would still allow Utah to offer Gobert up to $142.6MM on a four-year extension this offseason and that might be a more appropriate price for a player who is elite defensively but will never be nearly as dangerous on the offensive end.
Still, there are questions that must be addressed here. After two consecutive first-round playoff exits, are the Jazz still all-in on the Gobert/Mitchell duo? Because signing both players to lucrative long-term extensions will eat up a huge portion of the franchise’s cap room for years to come.
From Gobert’s perspective, would an extension offer below the super-max appeal to him? If he doesn’t get a super-max offer, perhaps he’d rather just wait for free agency in 2021 to sign a new deal, giving himself the chance to see what other opportunities are out there. We’ve seen some instances in the past where a team’s unwillingness to put a super-max on the table ultimately led to the player’s exit (ie. Jimmy Butler in Chicago or Kemba Walker in Charlotte).
And while it seemed by the end of Utah’s run in Orlando that any issues were long behind them, it’s worth noting that we’re only six months removed from reports about Mitchell and Gobert working on repairing their relationship after their positive coronavirus tests left them upset at one another. Are they ready to sign up for another five years of playing alongside one another?
I don’t expect the Jazz to seriously consider the idea of trading Gobert this fall. But it will be worth keeping a close eye on extension talks between the two sides — if they don’t work something out, the standout center will be on track to join a star-studded 2021 free agent class, with plenty of teams around the NBA expected to have cap room available.
3. Will the Jazz re-sign Jordan Clarkson?
Barring a shocking opt-out from Mike Conley, Clarkson will be the only key member of the Jazz rotation whose contract is expiring this offseason. His free agency creates a potential dilemma for the franchise.
Acquired last December in a trade with Cleveland, Clarkson immediately added some scoring punch to Utah’s second unit, enjoying one of the best runs of his career in 42 games with the Jazz. He posted 15.6 PPG on .462/.366/.785 shooting during that time, and his numbers didn’t fall off in the postseason either — he scored 16.7 PPG on .464/.347/1.000 shooting in seven playoff contests vs. Denver.
Clarkson’s ability to create his own shot and put the ball in the basket was a welcome addition to a Jazz roster that’s not exactly loaded with scorers, especially when Bojan Bogdanovic‘s season ended early due to wrist surgery. But he’s a somewhat one-dimensional player who’s not exactly an elite defender.
Utah president of basketball operations Dennis Lindsey spoke last month about prioritizing defensive-minded players this offseason. While Clarkson’s offense gave the team a boost, would his rotation spot be better utilized by a wing player who’s more capable of slowing down opposing scorers? And if Clarkson isn’t re-signed, will the Jazz have the cap flexibility to acquire a quality player who fits that bill?
If we assume Conley opts in and the Jazz keep their first-round pick while jettisoning their players on non-guaranteed contracts (except for Georges Niang), the team would be on the hook for about $116.4MM for 10 players. Re-signing Clarkson to a deal in the mid-level range would push that figure above $125MM. And if we assume the tax line will once again be $132.6MM, that doesn’t leave enough room below the tax for Utah to use its full mid-level exception.
Using the full MLE without going into the tax would be an option if the team lets Clarkson walk or cuts costs elsewhere, but it remains to be seen if that exception will be enough to acquire an impact rotation player.
A year ago, Seth Curry, Derrick Rose, Al-Farouq Aminu, and Tyus Jones were the players who received most or all of the non-taxpayer MLE. The Jazz may have to determine whether a player in that tier would be a better option than Clarkson — or if a leaguewide reluctance to spend might result in more intriguing options being available.
Given how well Clarkson fit in Utah this past season, I’d be a little surprised if the team simply lets him go. Perhaps a best-case scenario for the Jazz would be re-signing Clarkson at a fair price and then using a portion of the MLE to sign a free agent who lacks a strong track record but has some defensive upside (such as Derrick Jones). Trading for a wing is another possibility, though the Jazz aren’t loaded with a ton of expendable trade assets.
Information from Basketball Insiders and ESPN was used in the creation of this post. Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Yes, Mitchell high, Gobert low, actually putting them roughly equal in pay, which makes for a good excuse to go low for Gobert’s camp, despite the offer being maxx-y. Go over the MLE a bit for Clarkson to appease there… then go about $4mil for RFA Shaq Harrison who the Bulls may not even want since they have Kris Dunn.
Yesterday was the first I’ve heard interest in that Shaquille here in HR and that was in mentioning a local reader’s poll! link to hoopsrumors.com
He’s not that great but losing teams are looking for saviors and players have to measure up against a tough standard to raise enthusiasm. I guess. In limited court time, his stats are good and so is his energy. GM Lindsay says he wants that profile. I say Utah beats slow-starting Denver in the playoffs if they had him (and HC Malone would have a very different offseason!)
Derrick Jones seemed to mess up every time he came in. If it takes a player time to warm up to a game, that matters in a playoff situation for a non-starter. I don’t think he meets their standard, esp if they keep Clarkson. Baynes & Wood would be expensive, meaning giving up Clarkson at least.
I think the biggest question with the Jazz is whether the duo of Mitchell and Gobert will be a good fit long term. They can come out publicly and say they are over it and whatnot, but you know there is at least some resentment remaining.
It really depends on if Mitchell is the type of person to hold a grudge. If he is not, they should find a point guard that fits with them and continue on their way. If there are underlying problems, they need to split them now while the value is still there.
Of the two I would trade Gobert, but I could see it possibly being beneficial to them to move Mitchell instead. It could be a lot easier to find a scoring wing than to find a shutdown center. Mitchell would be a great fit for Indiana, but I don’t think they have enough to get him. The Knicks might if they were willing to move Barrett + more. Tough call, but Mitchell would not cheap.