Although a handful of big-money free agent contracts were completed during the offseason, the majority of the most lucrative deals signed by NBA players in 2020 have been contract extensions. And six of those extensions – belonging to Giannis Antetokounmpo, Paul George, Jayson Tatum, Donovan Mitchell, Bam Adebayo, and De’Aaron Fox – have been maximum-salary deals.
[RELATED: 2020/21 NBA Contract Extension Tracker]
Because those extensions won’t go into effect until the 2021/22 season and the NBA won’t finalize the ’21/22 salary cap until next summer, we can only ballpark what next year’s maximum-salary contracts will look like based on the league’s latest cap estimates.
When the NBA confirmed its salary cap data for the 2020/21 season on November 10, the league also updated its cap estimates for future seasons. According to the NBA, the cap will increase by at least 3% per year and no more than 10% per year for the remainder of the current Collective Bargaining Agreement.
For now, we’re basing our maximum-salary estimates on a 3% increase from this year’s $109,140,000 salary cap, since the NBA is facing probable revenue losses in 2020/21 and seems unlikely to bump the cap too substantially next season.
Listed below are the early maximum-salary projections for 2021/22, based on a $112,414,200 cap. The first chart shows the maximum salaries for a player re-signing with his own team — a player’s previous club can offer five years instead of four, and 8% annual raises instead of 5% raises. The second chart shows the maximum salaries for a player signing with a new team.
A player’s maximum salary is generally determined by his years of NBA experience, so there’s a wide gap between potential earnings for younger and older players. Unless they qualify for a more lucrative extension by meeting certain performance criteria, players with no more than six years of NBA experience are limited to a starting salary worth up to 25% of the cap. For players with seven to nine years of experience, that number is 30%. For players with 10 or more years of experience, it’s 35%.
Here are the the early max-salary projections for 2021/22:
A player re-signing with his own team (8% annual raises, up to five years):
| Year | 6 years or less | 7-9 years | 10+ years |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021/22 | $28,103,550 | $33,724,260 | $39,344,970 |
| 2022/23 | $30,351,834 | $36,422,201 | $42,492,568 |
| 2023/24 | $32,600,118 | $39,120,142 | $45,640,166 |
| 2024/25 | $34,848,402 | $41,818,083 | $48,787,764 |
| 2025/26 | $37,096,686 | $44,516,024 | $51,935,362 |
| Total | $163,000,590 | $195,600,710 | $228,200,830 |
The “6 years or less” column here is what the new extensions for Tatum, Mitchell, Adebayo, and Fox will look like if none of them make All-NBA teams in 2021. Each of those four players has Rose Rule language in his contract, however, and could move up to the 30% max column (“7-9 years”) if certain criteria are met.
Tatum and Mitchell just have to make any All-NBA team to bump the total projected value of their extensions from $163MM to $195.6MM, but Fox would have to make All-NBA First Team and Adebayo would have to win an MVP award. Fox and Adebayo can earn “max” salaries above 25% but below 30% if they achieve certain other criteria.
The third column applies not just to players with 10+ years of experience, but also to players who meet the Designated Veteran Extension criteria. Antetokounmpo fits that bill, so his deal is worth a projected $228.2MM.
George will have 10+ years of experience under his belt when his new extension takes effect in 2021/22, so its value is reflected in the third column here as well, albeit without the fifth and final year.
The third column also reflects what Kawhi Leonard could get in free agency if he opts out in 2021, though he won’t have full Bird rights yet, preventing him from signing for more than four years.
If the cap increases by 10%, the five-year values for these maximum-salary contracts would increase to approximately $174.1MM (25%), $208.9MM (30%), and $243.7MM (35%).
A player signing with a new team (5% annual raises, up to four years):
| Year | 6 years or less | 7-9 years | 10+ years |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021/22 | $28,103,550 | $33,724,260 | $39,344,970 |
| 2022/23 | $29,508,728 | $35,410,473 | $41,312,219 |
| 2023/24 | $30,913,906 | $37,096,686 | $43,279,468 |
| 2024/25 | $32,319,084 | $38,782,899 | $45,246,717 |
| Total | $120,845,268 | $145,014,318 | $169,183,374 |
If a player changes teams as a free agent, he doesn’t have access to a fifth year or 8% raises. So if a player like John Collins opts to sign an offer sheet with a team besides the Hawks next summer, he’ll be limited to a four-year deal projected to be worth just shy of $121MM.
If Victor Oladipo – or another veteran with between seven and nine years of NBA experience – wants to change teams in 2021, he would be able to sign a four-year contract worth up to a projected $145MM.
Leonard – or another veteran with 10+ years of experience – would be limited to just under $170MM over four years if he changes teams as a free agent in 2021.
If the cap increases by 10%, the four-year values for these maximum-salary contracts would increase to approximately $129.1MM (25%), $154.9MM (30%), and $180.7MM (35%).
Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Going to be interesting to see when the nba salary bubble bursts. The tv ratings tanked big time last year. MLB had more viewers. Have to the the next tv deals won’t be as lucrative.
The NBA is absolutely loaded. Corporate sponsorships will never go away. This thing is global don’t forget. The money in the NBA is insane.
Cable was down, but if you paid attention they were more watched as a whole. Also cable is failing it’s a great thing that they are diverse.
Paid attention to what? MLB playoffs and WS drew more viewers than the NBA playoffs and finals. It’s just a fact, both were not good by the way. The NBAs decision to go so political while also being China’s lapdog clearly turned off sone viewers. We’ll see if that trend continues.
i think the nba finals and playoffs were hurt by the lack of live attendance/playing in the bubble/the long break/watching in social situations not being what it would usually be.
if those things were in place even if they lost some viewers that felt things got political. the ratings would have popped past the mlb finals.
but thank you for bring up that point. i didn’t know of it, until you gave it a mention. :)
IMO the MLB playoffs left a good feeling even if it was a mess behind the scenes. The NBA playoffs seemed agreeable and “storylines” acceptable, (absent the few days of panic and sad player interviews), but I would expect some audience fatigue to seep in.
“but I would expect some audience fatigue.”
i did a quick check when Twinsfan333, mentioned the fall off. i know all sports are down right now rating wise. but if the nba finals lost half the audience/numbers it had for the finals last year.
that does seem a bit much. i hope there’s some bounce back this season. :)
“IMO the MLB playoffs left a good feeling.”
people just wanted the astros to lose. ;)
Lol MLB had more viewers because people over the age of 100 dont know how to change the channel or turn off the tv.
There were no 100 year olds for the last 20 seasons?
Aw my bad ur right last season they were 99…lol
Griffin to knicks confirmed…
what’s going on ?
Nothing
I heard Collins 4/121, Oladipo 4/125 or 5/196 and Kawhi 4/169 or 4/176.
Dipo’s not worth the 196 for Indy… If he comes back 4/125 is about right. Kawhi’s not that motivated to leave so probably the 4/169 for LAC is it.
ok would you give oladipo, 4/125 or try to trade him ?
At this price trade him for sure!
I mean right now he is what… the fourth best player in IND… after Sabonis, Brogdon & TJ, right?
Why would you pay the 4th option over 30MM$/year?
Trade him for anything you can get, add Turner & you might get something decent!
hey el don !
i’d try to trade him too. just seems it’s going to be harder to do. until he shows team he’s healthy/can stay healthy for awhile.
but seriously, they should try a trade. as it is now, no one thinks they can beat the heat,the bucks or the nets.
they may as well try to shake up roster and do anything to try to move the needle.