It’s been nearly two months since we checked in on the status of 2021’s traded first-round picks, and there have been plenty of shifts in the NBA standings since then. Those changes have an impact on where in the draft certain traded picks will land, as well as whether or not some protected picks will change hands at all.
With just over a month left in the 2020/21 regular season, it’s worth revisiting the traded first-round picks for 2021. With the help of our reverse standings tool, here’s our latest look at which of those traded picks are most and least likely to change hands, and which ones are still up in the air:
Picks that will definitely change hands:
- Knicks acquiring Mavericks‘ pick (unprotected).
- Rockets acquiring Bucks‘ pick (top-nine protected swap).
The only unprotected traded pick for the 2021 draft, the Mavs’ selection currently projects to be the No. 21 overall pick. That would be a reasonably good outcome for the Knicks, but there’s even more upside here — since Dallas is currently the No. 7 seed in the West, a win in the play-in tournament may be necessary to secure a playoff spot.
The NBA has yet to clarify exactly how draft positioning will be affected by the play-in results, but presumably if the Mavs don’t clinch a postseason berth in the play-in, that pick would move into the lottery.
Meanwhile, the Rockets will acquire the Bucks’ pick, currently projected to land at No. 24 overall, in a swap for their own second-rounder (No. 32, for now).
Picks that definitely won’t change hands:
- Grizzlies acquiring Jazz‘s pick (1-7 and 15-30 protection).
- Pelicans acquiring Lakers‘ pick (8-30 protection).
- Rockets acquiring Pistons‘ pick (top-16 protected).
The Jazz are definitely making the postseason and the Pistons definitely aren’t, so their picks (currently projected to be No. 30 and No. 4, respectively) won’t change hands.
The Grizzlies should at least be able to count on getting Utah’s first-rounder in 2022, when it will become top-six protected. It may be a while before the Rockets get a pick from Detroit though — that first-rounder remains heavily protected in 2022 (top-16), 2023 (top-18), and 2024 (top-18) before those protections start to loosen a little.
As for the Lakers‘ pick, it isn’t technically a lock yet — there’s theoretically a scenario in which L.A. misses the playoffs and then moves into the top four in the lottery, sending its pick to the Pelicans. But that’s an extreme long shot. The Lakers’ pick is at No. 23 for now.
It’s also worth mentioning that the Knicks have the ability to swap their own 2021 first-rounder for the Clippers‘ pick. At the moment though, New York’s pick would be No. 15 and L.A.’s would be No. 26, so that won’t happen.
Still up in the air:
- Warriors acquiring Timberwolves‘ pick (top-three protected).
- Magic acquiring Bulls‘ pick (top-four protected).
- Thunder acquiring Warriors‘ pick (top-20 protected).
That Timberwolves pick will be a fascinating one to watch in the lottery. If Minnesota finishes with a bottom-three record, there will be a 40.1% chance it remains in the top three.
The Warriors will actually be rooting for the Wolves to finish with the NBA’s worst record, since in that scenario, there’s a 59.9% chance the pick lands at No. 4 or No. 5. If the Wolves instead have the third-worst record, the pick would be just as likely to land in the top three, but could slip as far as No. 6 or No. 7.
The Magic will have a good chance of landing the Bulls‘ pick, which currently projects to be the No. 10 overall selection. If Chicago remains in that spot, there would only be about a 14% chance of the pick moving up into the top four.
Golden State’s own pick, which currently projects to be No. 13, is unlikely to be sent to the Thunder unless the Warriors get hot late in the season. Assuming the Warriors’ first-rounder is protected, Oklahoma City would instead receive Minnesota’s second-round pick (currently No. 31).
Latest on the Rockets/Thunder/Heat/Blazers/Nets situation:
As a reminder, this series of trades and pick swaps is too convoluted to fit cleanly into any of the above sections. Here’s a breakdown of how it works:
- The Thunder will have the right to swap either their own first-round pick or the Heat’s first-round pick for the Rockets‘ first-round pick, but only if Houston’s pick doesn’t fall in the top four. In other words, if Houston gets a top-four pick, the Rockets will keep their own first-rounder; if not, the Thunder will get the two most favorable picks of their own, the Heat’s, and the Rockets’, and Houston will get the least favorable.
- Once the first step is complete, the Rockets will be left with at least one first-round pick, and almost certainly two, since they’re also owed the Trail Blazers‘ first-rounder (top-14 protected). They would then have the right to swap either of those picks for the Nets‘ first-rounder (unprotected).
As of today, the Rockets have the second-worst record in the league, giving them a 52.1% chance of having their pick land in its top-four protected range on lottery night. In that scenario, Houston would keep its first-rounder (tentatively No. 2) and would get the Trail Blazers’ pick at No. 22. The Thunder would keep their own pick (No. 6, pending lottery results) and receive the Heat’s first-rounder (No. 17), while the Nets would hang onto their own selection (No. 27).
On the other hand, if the Rockets’ pick falls outside of the top four, the Thunder would acquire it along with their own first-rounder, while Houston would get Miami’s pick at No. 17.
No matter how the rest of the season plays out, it’s safe to assume that lottery night on June 22 will have massive implications for the Timberwolves, Warriors, Rockets, and Thunder, and potentially for the Magic and Bulls as well.
While the Pistons, Cavaliers, and a handful of other lottery teams will also be invested in the results that night, the outcome won’t be quite as all-or-nothing for those clubs.
I get what Morey was doing by trading for Westbrook, trying to keep Harden happy, but they are going to pay the price for that for years to come.
At that time
There was no need to trade away Rockets lightly protected 4 Firsts because Westbrook has additional $47 million bad contract
If Thunder get Rockets pick and Rockets get Heat pick, then Rockets will be …
That was Rockets owner and Harden who wanted Russ for CP3 trade. Darryl would never do it on his own.
Also, that cheap owner decided to get Dipo and Milwaukee first instead of Levert and Jarret Allen, cuz they had money beyond this season on their contracts. Such a shame that a team went toe to toe with Warriors for so many years got bought by such a terrible owner
They already paid the price this year. They got rid of Russ and they’ll be better off in the long run with Wall. They’re much younger now with Wood, Porter, KJ Martin, and Jae’Sean Tate plus the multiple first round picks they have in the upcoming draft. Hopefully they can retain Kelly Olynyk as well, who should be much easier to re-sign than Oladipo will be in Miami.
Just watch, our Wolves pick will come in at number 4. Still have a bad taste in my mouth for DLo rejecting us over the summer and costing us this pick, he had to know he wasn’t gonna be in GS for long. Though I honestly didn’t think we were gonna suck bad enough to even be talking about this. I blame injuries and definitely not roster construction…
There’s a 60% chance it lands at number 4 and goes to GSW.
On the bright side you were able to ship out a disappointing Andrew Wiggins. That contract and his uninspiring play was not a pretty thing on the wolves roster. Sure it cost a first-round pick but hopefully the Wolves will keep it in June, and next year they’ll be a lot better when the pic goes to the Warriors. Future looks bright in Minnesota if everything falls in place. Keep hope alive it will get better.
Future looks bright? Russell is a walking injury, Beasley is lucky to not be in prison, Edwards is a chucker shooting less than 40%, and KAT is just a year or so away from demanding a trade to a big market contender. Yeah, if everything goes perfectly they could be good, but that’s not the likely outcome.
Who pissed in your kool aid?
No one, just calling it as I see it.
I love how the Warriors front office team has orchestrated these wonderful plays and positionings. Shows a lot of Savvy and still in negotiations. There’s a few people here who Bash the Warriors coaching and front-office but I think they are top of the line and you’d be hard-pressed to find replacements who would do as well.
The whole Kevin Durant D’Angelo Russell Andrew Wiggins deal was fantastic. Instead of losing Durant for nothing the Warriors have Come Away with a couple pics and also kept their Max salary slot alive. If Durant walks for nothing the Warriors are still way over the cap but cannot add a MAX Superstar. You have to have that salary slot active with a player to trade out.
As far as the coaching side look at Andrew Wiggins. He’s been so so or disappointing at the least for 6 years and this year they’ve found a way to maximize his abilities. His shooting percentages are up his efficiency is up and he’s an attractive player now (perhaps) to other teams because the Warriors coaching staff has put Andrew in places he can be successful and be his best.
Finally, the Kelly Oubre thing was a decent gamble. Not sure who else they could have brought in like that for a top 20 protected first.. which will be a second round pick. Not too shabby to take a shot at success this season. Hasn’t worked out but giving up a second is fine because the Warriors wind up buying a second anyway at times.
Despite being way over the cap and somewhat handicapped if you listen to some people, the Warriors have continued to have a bright future in spite of handcuffed finances. Injuries have not been kind, but there’s always next year !!
Will be even better when the Warriors and Clippers do a sign & trade Oubre for Kawhi!
And no, replacing Jerry West, who bought in nothing but high IQ guys to fit Kerr’s system, with Lacob’s own flesh and blood (nepotism hires) who proceeded to bring in guys who do not fit the system, is a sign of a failed FO. Luckily this team has Steph Curry, and by that alone, will always be contending for at least the next half decade and probably longer.
Yes Jerry West was amazing. Pushed for the trade of Monta Ellis for Andrew Bogut. That shored up the defense which started the upward movement in the standings. Sent David Lee to the bench and defensive-minded Draymond Green along with Bogut put lock down in place.
Then West insisted on drafting Klay Thompson at number 11 even though he was on NONE of the draft boards top 30. What an amazing eye for talent. Very thankful Jerry West built this thing.
Why does everyone forget about Larry Riley? He drafted Steph and Klay, and traded Monta. It looks like he is doing the same with the Hawks. He took the heat, but doesn’t get any credit.
Vince, Larry Riley was more of a figurehead took care of daily GM stuff but the decision maker was Don Nelson back then. Then Larry kept the post but lacob went to Jerry West for advice. I’m actually not sure on the timing and when Riley was in his GM role without looking it up, but I definitely know this.., he made zero decision on his own. It was Nelson then later Jerry West.
Again during those years Larry Riley was the contact and the paperwork guy and the official GM but made few decisions on his own. Trust me.
Gary, loved the post. As usual you hit all the issues other posters butcher. I try not to interact with them but sometimes it’s difficult. One guy thinks I’m a fraud fan and then proceeded to claim that Clifford Ray was warriors best player after the Thurmond trade. So I give up with them but I’ll always post with Gary. Gary, I have no clue on the draft prospects. So let’s assume gsw makes 8 seed and drafts 15ish. Who do you like? Let’s assume Twolves go top 3, so do they hold on to next year’s first from them or trade it. I dont think they re-sign Oubre. I’ve really enjoyed watching Wiggins and hope they keep him. You? Keep him or not. At any rate, what do you hope happens and who should they draft?
Claude you are too kind !! I know you’ve been a long time fan and gone through the pain of the horrible years the Warriors have put us through in the 80s and the 90s. They were still fun to watch for the occasional Run TMC years and maybe the Sleepy Floyd era when they made the playoffs and lost to the Lakers.
As far as your questions, I’m really not sure but I think they would rather have a veteran or two that is an All-Star instead of keeping these pics and even James Wiseman. The only problem is guys are not available. Giannis re-signed, Harden was traded to Brooklyn, and Jimmy Butler is a fixture in Miami now. They’re just not any super studs available.
But myself, in a hot second I would trade all that stuff like Wiseman and the Minny pic and our own top 15 pick this year for a stud or two.
The issue is, who’s available? There’s a lot of talk about Bradley Beale but I don’t think he’s even available at all. So the Warriors are in a tough spot.. they need Veterans for Curry’s next 3 years but it’s going to be tough to get a guy or two. Even Kelly oubre.. he was a veteran they were lucky to get and even he hasn’t been a perfect fit. Bob Myers is pretty good he’ll figure it out.
How about yourself Claude, what are you hoping for and what do you think they should do?
A lot depends on who they draft and if that pick has strong potential. But like said, I don’t have deep knowledge of who the best prospects are. They’ll likely have 2 firsts next year but if they have a good season then their own pick will be late. But the twolves 2022 pick could be early, sooooo the 2 picks could be traded for a top player. It seems too early to have a solid idea.
Yes I would agree with you. And it’s tough to ask me about the best prospects because I’ve been wrong about guys. Really wrong. I’ve got strong opinions but they’re not always accurate. But as you say we’ll know more as time goes on. Thanks again for the kind words. You’re a rare one Claude.
Thanks Gary. Changing the subject, as you know I began watching GSW in late sixties. I l loved Nate Thurmond and was angry when they traded him pre-74/75 season. I knew they got Clifford Ray and couldn’t remember other details. So I wanted to revisit the trade and Googled it. “On September 3rd, 1974, the Golden State Warriors acquired forward Clifford Ray and a first-round pick (Joe “Jellybean” Bryant) from the Chicago Bulls in exchange for center Nate Thurmond. Thurmond was one of the elite centers in the NBA for quite some time. He originally was a rookie reserve to Wilt Chamberlain, but once Chamberlain was traded, Thurmond came into his own. In his time with San Francisco/Golden State, he averaged 17.4 ppg and 16.9 rpg in 11 years. He was a six-time all-star with the Warriors. The one criticism of Thurmond was his inability to get the Warriors over the hump to win a championship.
Ray averaged 8.3 ppg and 11 rpg in three seasons with Chicago. The major difference in both Centers was age. Thurmond was 33 at the time of the trade and Ray was 25. Also, the Warriors made this move as a salary dump, as they also acquired $100,000 to make the deal work.
Ray helped lead the Golden State Warriors to an NBA championship in the same year of 1975. The Warriors and Bulls faced off in the Western Conference Finals in the same season of the trade. The Warriors won in seven games on their way to their championship. Ray averaged a team-leading 9.8 rpg during the 1975 playoffs.
In Thurmond’s first game with Chicago, he recorded the first quadruple-double in NBA history with 22 points, 14 rebounds, 13 assists and 12 blocked shots. He averaged 7.9 ppg and 11.3 rpg in a full season with Chicago. 13 games into the next season Chicago traded him.
Bryant was drafted with the 14th pick in the 1975 draft by Golden State, but his rights were sold in September to the 76ers. He never played a game for Golden State. This obviously had long-term ramifications on the league. Kobe Bryant’s life-path was altered by this trade.”
Great read. I love history like that.
I knew Kobe’s dad had a gsw history but I couldn’t remember specifics. Franklin Meuli was a tightwad. Didn’t want to pay Thurmond so traded him. Then he traded the first rounder, Bryant, cuz he didn’t want to pay him. But Rick Barry led them to HUGE upset in finals vs Bullets in a sweep. Bullets had Hayes, Unseld and Chenier and GSW had Barry. Barry still doesn’t receive the credit he deserved for that. Man, that season was a blast. Poor Oakland. Meuli tight. Finley same with A’s. Raiders gone. Yet many titles over the years
Rockets will have to rely on their own picks, Nets and Bucks picks are bad
Rockets GM does not know how to trade 2 superstars for proven young stars
Kelly Olynyk and John Wall don’t look proven, don’t look young and don’t look like stars
Its amazing how people took a dump on LA for giving away too much for AD. But they were able to trade their first last year for Schroeder, and this year they will have a 20-24 pick along with Kuzma’s contract to get another impact player via trade.
Thats aside from winning a chip last year with AD. The clippers on the other hand got robbed for pandemic P
It looks pretty likely that the Nets will hold onto their own pick, but if somehow the Bucks pass them in the standings, would the Rockets be able to swap the pick they get from the Bucks with the Nets?
No, that Bucks pick is the one first-rounder the Rockets can get that they wouldn’t be able to swap for Brooklyn’s.
Since their inception in 1989, the Timberpuppies have proven time and time again that they are the best – at being the worst. This season is no exception.