The NBA will be using its revamped lottery format for a third time this year. The new format, instituted in 2019, smoothed out the odds for top picks, reducing the league’s worst team’s chance of getting the No. 1 selection from 25.0% to 14.0%.
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The new format has had an immediate impact. In 2019, the Pelicans and Grizzlies were tied for the seventh-best lottery odds, but jumped up to No. 1 and 2, respectively, allowing them to land Zion Williamson and Ja Morant.
The shakeup in 2020 wasn’t quite as drastic, but the Bulls and Hornets landed picks in the top four despite entering lottery night with the seventh- and eighth-best odds, respectively. That stroke of luck significantly changed the direction of the franchise in Charlotte, where the Hornets were able to land LaMelo Ball with the No. 3 pick.
With the help of data from Tankathon.com – which is worth checking out for all sorts of draft-related info – the draft lottery odds for 2021 are listed in the chart below.
The numbers in the chart indicate percentages, so the Rockets‘ pick, for instance, has a 14% chance of landing the No. 1 pick and a 47.9% chance of ending up at No. 5. If a team’s odds are listed as >0, that percentage is below 0.1%.
Here’s the full chart:
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOU | 14 | 13.4 | 12.7 | 12 | 47.9 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| DET | 14 | 13.4 | 12.7 | 12 | 27.8 | 20.1 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| ORL | 14 | 13.4 | 12.7 | 12 | 14.8 | 26 | 7.1 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| OKC | 11.5 | 11.4 | 11.2 | 11 | 7.4 | 27.1 | 18 | 2.4 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| CLE | 11.5 | 11.4 | 11.2 | 11 | 2 | 18.2 | 25.5 | 8.6 | 0.6 | – | – | – | – | – |
| MIN | 9 | 9.2 | 9.4 | 9.6 | – | 8.6 | 29.7 | 20.6 | 3.8 | 0.2 | – | – | – | – |
| TOR | 7.5 | 7.8 | 8.1 | 8.5 | – | – | 19.8 | 33.9 | 13 | 1.4 | >0 | – | – | – |
| CHI | 4.5 | 4.8 | 5.2 | 5.7 | – | – | – | 34.5 | 36.2 | 8.5 | 0.5 | >0 | – | – |
| SAC | 4.5 | 4.8 | 5.2 | 5.7 | – | – | – | – | 46.4 | 29.4 | 3.9 | 0.1 | >0 | – |
| NOP | 4.5 | 4.8 | 5.2 | 5.7 | – | – | – | – | – | 60.6 | 17.9 | 1.2 | >0 | >0 |
| CHA | 1.8 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 2.5 | – | – | – | – | – | – | 77.6 | 13.4 | 0.4 | >0 |
| SAS | 1.7 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 2.4 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 85.2 | 6.6 | 0.1 |
| IND | 1 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 1.4 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 92.9 | 2.3 |
| GSW | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.7 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 97.6 |
Notes:
- The Rockets‘ pick will be sent to the Thunder (in exchange for the No. 18 pick) if it lands at No. 5.
- The Timberwolves‘ pick will be sent to the Warriors if it lands outside of the top three.
- The Bulls‘ pick will be sent to the Magic if it lands outside of the top four.
The full pre-lottery draft order for 2021 can be found right here.
Cavs have 47% chance to land 1-5, more chance to land 6-9 than 1-5
Not good
Everybody has a better chance at moving down than moving up…. that’s the way it works!
Except the top 3 teams each have a 52.14% chance at a top-4 pick.
They each have a 40% chance of staying in the top 3. So they have a better chance of moving down!
Especially if you consider HOU as #1, DET as #2 and ORL as #3 based on reverse standings!
Wolves were in win-now mode final 2 weeks because Wolves GM would look really bad if Warriors land 4-5th pick
Final two weeks
Wolves have proved that they are successful by beating Rockets, Magic and Thunder
Now Warriors are likely to land 6-10 pick
GSW has a 0.5% chance at the #1 pick?
So you say there’s a chance???
:)
Imagine if the thunder get 2 top 5 picks.
It’s possible. About a 21.6% chance which isn’t too bad.
So the Magic just likely improved their draft pick from the Bulls and the Bulls 2nd rd pick just sent from #38 to #40. So by “winning” the tiebreaker, the Bulls actually lost.
Bulls better hope they win this lottery or this Vuc trade is going to be so disastrous for them.
The Bulls love playing themselves into irrelevancy year after year.
7th spot seems to be the luckiest. Wouldn’t be surprised to see Toronto have a nice lottery night.
Based on what? History? If something is random, then the history doesn’t matter.
Since it’s random, I wouldn’t be surprised if they did well. I also wouldn’t be surprised if they didn’t.
With that being said, if GS, MIN, CLE or NOP wins the lottery….I’ll be surprised (hypocrite!) and not too happy!
I would say you must be fun at parties, but I doubt you get many invitations.
Seriously man, was that really necessary? I don’t actually believe the 7th spot is something voodoo-related or anything. It was just an observation that the 7th spot has beaten the odds recently.
I think I’d be fun at parties. Hopefully one day I’ll find out….
That was a good reply and it improved your chances!
Yeah, I’ll give you respect for that one. Nice call.
So in typical Timberpuppies fashion of continual mis-steps, the late season MEANINGLESS surge of winning 5 out of the last 10 games, as opposed to winning 2 of the last 10 has now positioned them with only a 27.6% chance of retaining their 2021 FIRST ROUND PICK (they have no second),
INSTEAD of a 40.1% chance of keeping it. Were those 3 extra wins REALLY WORTH THAT ????
Yeah, indeed!
Now if they give their pick to GSW won’t be a very good one, probably a 6/8, if they had lost those 3 games they would be giving up a 4/5 pick, they did right thing!
Anyway winning games is more important than winning the losers lotto, so at least they are now looking like a team that will compete for the play-in next year, losing those 3 extra games would certify them not competing for the play-in, so big difference, right?
Maybe you could try to be a lil’ bit more positive ’bout MIN, Rosas is doing good there right now!
Both Rosas and his head coach of choice will be looking for work once Taylor turns the reins over to the new ownership group. Unless the Timberpuppies somehow win it all, both are lame ducks.
Clock is ticking, it’s just a matter of time…..
Kinda hoping the Thunder get #5. Because it would just be funny to see the tank fail in Houston.
I think it would be funnier to see the tank fail in OKC. OKC was the team tanking all season long, Houston just made bad decisions which led to tanking the last month or so. Let’s say Houston gets pick 1-4 and 3 teams 6th or higher beat the odds and get the other top three picks. Then OKC would have their worst case scenario of their own pick 8 and Miami’s #18. Doesn’t seem like a good return for wasting an entire year. Their best case scenario of winning the whole thing and Houston falling out of the top 4 which would result in them getting picks 1 and 5 and Houston getting 18. Of course, I still don’t think that is worth purposely wasting an entire year over.