On Monday, we took an in-depth look at what we knew about the NBA’s 2021 draft lottery standings and projected draft order so far based on the regular season standings, and what was still to be determined based on play-in results, random tiebreakers, and the lottery results.
With the play-in tournament nearly over, we can fill in a few more gaps. Let’s dive in…
Lottery standings
Having been eliminated from playoff contention, the Pacers will be at No. 13 in the lottery standings, giving them a 1% chance at the first overall pick and a 4.8% shot at a top-five selection, per Tankathon.
A tiebreaker will be necessary to determine whether the Spurs or Hornets get the edge in the lottery standings, but they’ll occupy the Nos. 11 and 12 spots in the lottery standings. The winner of the tiebreaker – to be conducted next Tuesday – will have a slightly higher chance of earning the first overall pick (1.8% to 1.7%) and a top-four pick (8.5% to 8.0%).
The No. 14 spot in the lottery will be held by the loser of Friday’s Warriors/Grizzlies play-in game.
Draft order
Having clinched playoff spots, the Wizards and Celtics will draft 15th and 16th, respectively, in the first round.
The winner of tonight’s Warriors/Grizzlies play-in game will draft 17th, while the Lakers will be part of a Tuesday tiebreaker to determine their exact position — they could draft as high as 21st and as low as 23rd.
If the Lakers had missed the postseason, teams like the Heat, Knicks, and Hawks each would have been pushed down one spot in the draft. Since L.A. made it, those teams will stay put, starting with Miami at No. 18.
Notable traded second-round picks
On Monday, we focused on what would happen with 2021’s traded first-round picks. So many of this year’s second-round picks have been traded that we’re not going to run through all of them in this space (you can check our tracker for the full details), but here are a few notable second-round swaps worth flagging:
The Pacers traded their second-round pick to the Nets with 45-60 protection. Because Indiana’s second-rounder is going to land at No. 44, that pick will be sent to Brooklyn rather than being protected.
The Bulls, who will be involved in a first-round tiebreaker with the Pelicans (and Kings) to determine their spots in the lottery standings, also have the ability to swap second-round picks with New Orleans. In the event of a random tiebreaker, the second-round order is always the inverse of the first-round order — for instance, if Team A wins a first-round tiebreaker over Team B, then Team B would get the higher pick in the second round. But in this case, the Bulls could win the first-round tiebreaker, then use their second-round swap to make sure they pick ahead of the Pelicans in both rounds.
Because the Warriors‘ first-round pick will fall in the top 20, Golden State will keep it and will instead have to send the Timberwolves’ second-round pick to the Thunder to complete last year’s Kelly Oubre trade. That pick will be No. 36.
The Suns had agreed to send their second-round pick to the Grizzlies if it landed between 31-35 and to the Nets if it landed between 36-60. It’ll go to Brooklyn, since it’s the No. 59 overall selection. Memphis is simply out of luck, as Phoenix’s obligation to the Grizzlies is now extinguished.
The Bucks will get the first pick of the second round (No. 31), since the Rockets have the ability to swap their second-rounder for Milwaukee’s first-rounder (No. 24).
Other early second-round picks that will change hands include the Pistons‘ No. 32 pick (to the Knicks), the Cavaliers‘ pick at either No. 34 or 35 (to the Pelicans), and the Raptors‘ No. 37 pick (to the Pistons).
Let the rumors begin who the Knicks can get with 2 #1 picks. Possibly move up and get Suggs would be great.
Probably need to throw in #32 as well to get the discussions started
Unless the Knicks move Barrett from their rotation along with a pick or 2, the Knicks won’t be moving up into the top 5 to get Suggs.
There’s no chance they can get in top 5 at this point, even if they added Toppin and Dallas’ 2023 pick to the two 2021 picks. This was a potential option when their pick figured to be in the top 10. I think they might trade either or both of them, but not for that type of prize.
Very small chance anyone is trading out of the top 4. Pistons have some pieces that they could move to swap a 4 for a 1 but a team dropping out of the top 4 would cost multiple 1st round unprotected picks & a player. Too expensive.
After watching Steph endure G-leaguers all year, its imperative Silver give the #1 and #2 picks to GSW in the lottery for their and the Wolves picks. Only fair after this season. Silver has to protect the only entertaining player he has.
yes please give minnesota the number 2 pick so they keep it and the warriors dont get it
lmao oops, I meant number 1 and number 4 then, still works, this draft is L O A D E D.
The chances of that happening are 0.048% or roughly 1 in 2000.
That’s assuming the Warriors lose tonight against the Grizzlies too.
So it’s 290 times more likely that Houston will get the #1 pick in the draft than the extremely unlikely event that Golden State will end up with picks #1 and #4.
That is also assuming the Grizzlies win tonight (fingers crossed).
Here’s a simple way to show improbable that is, even if the Warriors lose at home tonight. Find yourself a six-sided die, go ahead.
Now anyone who is obstinate enough to insist that Golden State is going to reach the NBA Finals five times in a row yet again must have the patience to roll a 6-sided die over a thousand times.
Roll the exact same number twice in a row yet? Not that hard.
Three times straight? That’s gonna take a while. Keep trying.
Now try to do it 5 times in a row, that’s gonna take a very long time.
And the odds of doing that are still better than the Golden State Warriors getting the #1 and #4 picks in the draft. So keep dreaming.
And you say Golden State fans are thin-skinned. (Marty has a sexual obsession with Curry. He is not a fan) say the word ‘Warriors’, and you freak out.
Nice to see how much reality you and Marty get. Delusional comes to mind. GS doesn’t need rookies. Houston does.
Given the league loves marketing Golden State and despises Minnesota, I think there will be some kind of voodoo that will make poor fans like yourself have their heads explode. NBA, where the impossible becomes probable.