The Cavaliers‘ 2020/21 season looked pretty similar to most of the team’s LeBron James-less seasons over the last two decades. After remaining in the play-in hunt during the first half, Cleveland went into a tailspin to finish the year — the team lost 23 of its final 28 games and ended up with a 22-50 record, tied for the fourth-work mark in the NBA.
The Cavs have had no shortage of lottery luck over the years, winning the No. 1 pick in 2003, 2011, 2013, and 2014. But the team hasn’t picked in the top four since its latest rebuild began, and as a result hasn’t landed a clear-cut franchise player to build around.
There are reasons to be optimistic about the backcourt duo of Collin Sexton and Darius Garland, both of whom have made significant positive strides since entering the league, but neither player is a great defender or a lock to be a future All-Star. Isaac Okoro, meanwhile, is already a strong wing defender, but will need to show more on offense than he did as a rookie in order to become a reliable starter.
Inserting themselves into the four-team James Harden deal in order to land on Jarrett Allen was a nice move by the Cavs, adding a young center to the existing core. Getting back into the playoff mix in the East will likely require the team to make a few more savvy moves like that one.
The Cavaliers’ Offseason Plan:
Tonight’s lottery will be big for the Cavs, who will be looking to recapture some of the magic that helped them land the top pick so often in the past. With some luck, they could be in position to nab a future star like Jalen Suggs, Evan Mobley, or even Cade Cunningham. Even if they fall out of the top five, drafting a forward like Scottie Barnes wouldn’t be a bad consolation prize.
Following the draft, the Cavs figure to explore the free agent market for a veteran ball-handler who could be signed with the mid-level exception. Cleveland may also be active on the trade market, with Larry Nance Jr. and Cedi Osman among those who could be shopped. And a trade or buyout are in play for Kevin Love. However, the team’s top priority this summer may be negotiating a pair of contracts with its own players.
First and foremost, Allen will be a restricted free agent, and after surrendering a first-round pick for him, the Cavs will want to make sure he’s locked up long-term. The size of Allen’s payday may ultimately hinge on whether another team makes a push to sign him to an offer sheet, which would increase his value, but he’ll likely be in line for a salary of at least $15-20MM per year either way.
One wild card in the Allen contract talks would be a scenario where the Cavs draft Mobley. Doing so wouldn’t make Cleveland decide to let Allen walk, but it would reduce his leverage, given the positional overlap between the two players.
The Cavs’ other big contract negotiation will be with Sexton, who is eligible for a rookie scale extension before the 2021/22 season begins. Given his ascendant offensive game – he averaged 24.3 points per game in 2020/21 – Sexton will likely be seeking the max or something close to it. The club figures to have some reservations about that sort of investment, given the guard’s defensive shortcomings and his limited ability to facilitate for teammates. The Cavs have been better with him off the court than on it in each of his three seasons to date.
As is the case with Allen and Mobley, if the Cavs end up drafting a guard like Cunningham or Suggs, it may diminish their enthusiasm to rush into a lucrative long-term deal with Sexton.
Salary Cap Situation
Note: Our salary cap projections are based on a presumed 3% increase, which would result in a $112.4MM cap for 2021/22.
Guaranteed Salary
Kevin Love ($31,258,256)- Taurean Prince ($13,000,000)
- Larry Nance Jr. ($10,690,909)
- Cedi Osman ($8,133,334)
- Darius Garland ($7,040,880)
- Isaac Okoro ($6,720,720)
- Collin Sexton ($6,349,671)
- Dylan Windler ($2,239,200)
- J.R. Smith ($1,456,667) — Waived via stretch provision.
- Total: $86,889,637
Player Options
- Isaiah Hartenstein ($1,762,796): Non-Bird rights 1
- Total: $1,762,796
Team Options
- None
Non-Guaranteed Salary
- Damyean Dotson ($2,000,000)
- Dean Wade ($1,782,621)
- Mfiondu Kabengele ($1,701,593)
- Lamar Stevens ($1,517,981)
- Total: $7,002,195
Restricted Free Agents
- Jarrett Allen ($7,705,447 qualifying offer / $11,729,706 cap hold): Bird rights
- Total (cap holds): $11,729,706
Two-Way Free Agents
Draft Picks
- No. 3 overall pick ($8,075,160)
Extension-Eligible Players
- Collin Sexton (rookie scale)
- Kevin Love (veteran)
- Larry Nance Jr. (veteran)
- Cedi Osman (veteran)
- Taurean Prince (veteran)
Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds
- Matthew Dellavedova ($1,669,178): Bird rights
- Total: $1,669,178
Offseason Cap Outlook
Although the Cavaliers have a little less than $87MM in guaranteed money on their books for 2021/22 at the moment, the cap holds for Allen and the No. 3 overall pick will push them well over the $100MM threshold. That will make it an easy choice to operate as an over-the-cap team unless the club makes a cost-cutting move or two.
Even after accounting for new deals for Allen and possibly Hartenstein, the Cavs should have plenty of breathing room below the luxury-tax line, so they could make use of their full mid-level exception this offseason.
Cap Exceptions Available
- Mid-level exception: $9,536,000 2
- Bi-annual exception: $3,732,000 2
- Trade exception: $4,200,000
- Trade exception: $1,717,981
Footnotes
- Hartenstein will be eligible for restricted free agency if he opts out.
- These are projected values.
Salary and cap information from Basketball Insiders and RealGM was used in the creation of this post. Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Great take Luke. It will be an interesting off season for the Cavs for sure.
8 months ago, Hawks are the 27th team in the nba
And now, they are targeting nba championship
Hawks are the best template for Cavs to use?
Ideally, yes. I like the Cavs’ core, and I think that each of their young guys can play a part on a winning team, but I’m also not sure that this team (as it currently looks) has a championship level ceiling when it’s all said and done. Either way, the Cavs don’t have the personnel to schematically match what the Hawks had before last offseason. Atlanta obviously tried to follow the Golden State formula, and the Cavs are kind of emulating what Portland has done. They also more than likely won’t have the cap room to add a lot to the roster like the Hawks did.
It seemed like the Hawks were definitely trending upward so free agents were probably also more willing to sign there, all things being equal. The Cavs are probably stuck in no man’s land for another year or two, so unless a few guys take another step forward or unless the guy they take in the first round is more of a star than a role player, I’m not sure that a solid starting-quality player would sign there. (I’m a Cavs fan, for what it’s worth.)
Every LeBron-less season for the last five decades has been pretty much the same for the Cavaliers, not just the last two.
I’m guessing you never heard of Lenny Wilkens
Legend has it basketball didn’t exist before LeBron
If Cavs can get a top 6 pick (more 60%+) they’ll be in good shape to draft a potential star that fits with their current young players. CC, JG, JK and Barnes all fit better than Suggs and Mobley, but they can’t go wrong with any of them. J. Allen is a future DPOY, if the team dedicates itself to defending (hard to play defense by yourself these days, or at least be noticed for it). Garland and Sexton can’t be the long term starting backcourt, but they’ll give Allen plenty of opportunities to shine in rim protection.
Cavs are dumbest organization in league. Instead of trading diva Love upon BRON departure, they gave him a max and yet they refused to listen to offers now is too late!
They traded Clarkson who’s the 6th man of year. Drummond was balling in beginning of season and team was winning games and yet they bought his contract and put their hopes into overrated Allen. I won’t be surprised if they pay him a max a la Love. Btw John Beilein was a good coach for this team and the fact that they fired him over slip of tongue is disgraceful! They had to side with these butthurt super sensitives bum ass kids! Where is their wining record now ??
I think they would be borderline insane to offer the max to Sexton. I get they have to make a fairly large offer, but to me he’s not projecting to be a franchise player. Even secondary franchise player is questionable.
He’s a liability on defense and he’s an average playmaker at best — basically he’s CJ McCollum in training.
Allen is interesting because he’s kind of in that Gobert mold—elite defensively, can rim run, but basically has no post game, no outside shot.
I wonder if teams are going to start looking at that type of player differently given how Utah has fared with the apex player of that ilk.
Very Very good point-
The template is now there and I don’t see the tides turning anytime soon for the 5’s
Idea- Make Ben Simmons a 5!!!! Obv not w Philly but it could work out fantastic….say Por ….keep Cov for 3 find a 4 that can shoot …trade Nurk for value, dont resign Collins (unless hometown discount)
I, along w many others, rolled my eyes seeing Batum start at the 5….but look whoes playing tonight and whoes on the couch
I wonder what a
1- Lillard
2- Powell
3- Cov
4-Kuzma
5 Simmons
Team would look like ….
You might think there might not be enough beef (lbs) down low but idk…… lotta length, athleticism, shooting, and pesky d along the perimeter tucked in that rotation…and they can all switch EVERYONE mostly which seems to be just more vital by the day
I mean, if you look at the Celtics when Theiss was the starter or Rob Williams is playing, it’s the same vibe as what you’re suggesting. Both of those guys are skinny and 6’8. That is just an example, point being it’s being done already.
Yes the Celts would be the best example-
I guess….. my question is…… Is it worth the risk in blowing it up and trying that Style rather than staying the traditional route that they {can } drive down right now w Nurk and Co….
Cuz they could have Dantoni Simmons and Kuzma tomorrow prolly and run a pretty staggering forward thinking system.
They dont even need Dantoni, and I wouldn’t, but he always looms.
They’d have the ability to send a lot of hard doubles with that lineup and recover as well.
I’d Imagine they’d be real good at defending the 3 as well. Lillard provides the necessary space to play 4 out (w Simmons low) extremely effective – Corner 3, just happens to be Kuzmas best spot as well
* And also, no offence, I th?nk your a Celts fan….That theoretical Portland team would be better Imo than those Celts teams ….and I like Tatum and Brown
Kuz Cov Powell can all cut, there’d be a lot of open space in those lanes, we know Bens passing. Rebounding would have to be a team game, and they’d all need to buy in, even Lillard ; but it’s an interesting road to travel, perhaps moreso then the one they’ve been on for 5 years
I like it – Simmons as a roll guy but also an elite passer. I’d question whether he provides enough rim protection but you’re right — look at Batum, if he can do it Simmons can do it twice.
I don’t think a guy like Gobert or Anderson has a hard time getting minutes, its more what do you pay that guy? They still have value, but it’s dropping.
Exactly. You can’t have a guy take up a third of your cap then not be able to play him in the 4th quarter in the playoffs.
Two 6’ guards will never work. Wasn’t there a story. That no one liked Sexton. Cause he was all about stats n himself. Cavs will get a nice player in this draft. I would move Sexton now. You can’t build with head cases. I’m keep an eye on what they do with Okoro. Especially if they draft a 3-4.
most of those ppl that had issues with Collin were vets with attitude problems. and yes you can win with two small guards. Isaiah and Dumars. Lowry and VanVleet. And while they haven’t won anything yet, Lillard and CJ. It’s all about who you surround them with.
I don’t know if all of this speculative talk is coming from inside the organization or out. Let’s be clear, the reason why Kevin Love was given an extension is because in the wake of Kyrie wanting out and Lebron departing for LA, the franchise was left in need of a star to represent the team. No way did Gilbert NOT understand that Love was an overpay and likely wouldn’t be worth his contract at some point. But who else was he going to give it to? They aren’t any marquee FA looking to come to Cleveland sanz LBJ.
So excuse me, if he can justify giving Love that chunk of money then he can afford to do their best to keep Sexton, who seems to like being in Cleveland and probably takes it as a challenge to try and bring winning ways to Cleveland. His background shows he’s tough and doesn’t shy away from challenges like when he went 3 on 5 in that college game. So what if he isn’t a defensive player yet. I bet he’s trying. I bet he’s willing to get better. He was known for his tenacity in college and high school. He needs coaching to improve his nba IQ on defense. But I bet he’s an eager student. When have the Cavs had a 24pt pg scorer not named Kyrie or LBJ? Can the Cavs REALLY afford to scrap him and roll the dice on another draft pick? I doubt they can get another young player of his caliber. Pay the man. In his 3 years he’s steadily increased his FG%, FTA, PPG, REB, ASSTS and his 3pt avg and FT% remain very good at 38% and 83%. Young Bull has a rep for having heart. With proper coaching he can become better defensively if he’s willing to listen and give effort. he doesn’t seem lazy. I would not trust this team to get fair value from him. Harden, Kyrie, Lillard, Booker, Curry, e.t.c are not known to be good defenders either. Im not saying he will be as good overall as those future HOFs but would the Cavs give a second thought to paying those guys if they were FA?
Cavs need to acquire and retain as much young talent that’s willing to stay in Cleveland as possible. Sign him and figure the rest out. They could draft one of the guards with the #3 and they could be a bust. At least with Collin you know you have a dynamic scorer that can create his own shot, be efficient and has heart. At age 22 there’s time to improve. That’s what good coaches and assists are for and as yet he’s NOT had a consistent coaching staff to learn from as he’s on his 3rd head coach in 3 years and aside from maybe Delly hasn’t had a veteran guard, current or former to learn from. Cavs just can’t give away their talent in a trade unless they clearly get someone just as good or better with years of comparable control. Draft picks are a lottery…. literally. Sign him. COACH HIM!!!!