The Rockets entered the 2020/21 league year with – at the very least – playoff aspirations. The team was coming off a disappointing second-round exit in the 2020 postseason, but after adding Christian Wood in free agency, there was a sense that if everything broke right, the roster still had enough talent to compete for a top spot in the West and make a deep postseason run.
Instead, injuries, COVID-19 issues, and James Harden‘s trade demand tanked Houston’s season almost before it began. The club managed to tread water for a little while, even after trading Harden in January, and was above .500 (11-10) as late as February 5. But injuries and a lack of star talent eventually caught up to the Rockets, who went into full-fledged seller mode by the trade deadline and finished the season by losing an incredible 45 of their last 51 games.
The Rockets’ Offseason Plan:
Lottery night will be crucial for the Rockets, who have slightly better than 50/50 odds to keep their top-four protected pick. If that selection lands at No. 5, Houston would have to send it to Oklahoma City in exchange for No. 18. If it ends up in the top four, the Rockets will be in prime position to draft a long-term cornerstone for their rebuild.
Either way though, the Rockets will have three first-round selections, including two in the 20s. Whether they use all of those picks or end up trading one or two, general manager Rafael Stone will be under pressure to maximize their value. Virtually all of the most valuable assets the team received in the Harden deal were future picks and swaps, so Stone is betting on his ability to draft well and perhaps uncover some hidden gems during the next few seasons.
Without a ton of cap flexibility, the Rockets appear unlikely to be particularly active on the free agent market. Waiting until the second or third wave of free agency to hunt for veterans on bargains makes sense for the club — those vets could contribute in the short term and perhaps be flipped for assets at next year’s trade deadline.
Stone figures to be more active in trade talks, with John Wall, Eric Gordon, D.J. Augustin, and Danuel House among the players who should be available for the right return. However, Wall and Gordon are coming off injuries and have pricey salaries, which will make it tricky for the Rockets to find decent value for them.
Salary Cap Situation
Note: Our salary cap projections are based on a presumed 3% increase, which would result in a $112.4MM cap for 2021/22.
Guaranteed Salary
- John Wall ($44,310,840)
- Eric Gordon ($18,218,818)
- Christian Wood ($13,666,667)
- D.J. Augustin ($7,000,000)
- Danuel House ($3,894,000)
- Kevin Porter Jr. ($1,782,621)
- Troy Williams ($122,741) — Waived via stretch provision.
- Total: $88,995,687
Player Options
- None
Team Options
- Avery Bradley ($5,916,750): Non-Bird rights
- Total: $5,916,750
Non-Guaranteed Salary
- Khyri Thomas ($1,762,796)
- Kenyon Martin Jr. ($1,517,981) 1
- Jae’Sean Tate ($1,517,981)
- Total: $4,798,758
Restricted Free Agents
- D.J. Wilson ($6,422,171 qualifying offer / $13,644,840 cap hold): Bird rights
- Total (cap holds): $13,644,840
Two-Way Free Agents
Draft Picks
- No. 2 overall pick ($8,992,200)
- No. 23 overall pick ($2,353,320)
- No. 24 overall pick ($2,259,240)
- Total: $13,604,760
Extension-Eligible Players
- John Wall (veteran)
- Danuel House (veteran)
Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds
- Kelly Olynyk ($20,129,474): Bird rights
- Dante Exum ($18,240,000): Bird rights
- David Nwaba ($1,669,178): Early Bird rights
- Sterling Brown ($1,669,178): Non-Bird rights
- Total: $41,707,830
Offseason Cap Outlook
With only about $89MM in guaranteed money on their books, the Rockets could theoretically have a little cap room this offseason. However, the non-guaranteed salaries for Tate and Martin will almost certainly be guaranteed and the cap holds for their first-round picks will significantly cut into their projected space.
It’s possible Houston will make a trade or two to reduce team salary and generate cap room, but for the time being, we’re assuming the club will operate over the cap, which would allow the front office to keep its various exceptions and to retain Olynyk’s Bird rights.
Cap Exceptions Available
- Mid-level exception: $9,536,000 2
- Bi-annual exception: $3,732,000 2
- Trade exception: $8,180,351
- Trade exception: $5,019,920
- Trade exception: $2,174,318
- Trade exception: $1,780,152
- Trade exception: $103,894
Footnotes
- Martin’s salary becomes fully guaranteed after August 1.
- These are projected values.
Salary and cap information from Basketball Insiders and RealGM was used in the creation of this post. Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Summer league should theoretically be really fun to watch, assuming all of their young guys play
I love the Summer League. Vegas here we come !!
Rockets cap projection
G-contracts $89m 7 players
Draft picks salary $13m 3 players
Keep 3 young players 5m
Roster charge $2m
Total Team salary $109m
NBA salary cap 112m
Rockets have $3 million cap room to sign free agents
they should trade away their vets and go all in a rebuild. How tough the west will be next year their lineup will get blown out a lot. OKC did a great job on securing a bunch of draft picks. They should do the same.
They had the worst record in the West last year – I think they might be all in on a rebuild already.
Also, I think they’d probably move Wall, except they’d have to give up picks to do so (at least if they wanted to clear cap space).
They’re not using cap room to sign any free agents. But they have $8M and $5M trade exceptions plus the MLE and BAE to add more players. And they will likely use their bird rights to re-sign both Olynyk and David Nwaba.
Nwaba I can see keeping but Olynk is not worth $20 million a year.
they should go all out rebuild. There is way to many over paid players on the roster. Why not trade Gordon for some draft picks?
I think they have to include House in any salary cap dump for picks, wouldn’t you think?
he is still cheap and can play enough off the bench to keep.
Trade Eric Gordon to a team like Memphis who needs more outside perimeter scoring. Another team that would fit Gordon’s game is Toronto, they lost Powell and need another scorer off the bench.
I am not sure any team wants two years of Gordon at 18-19 M each… at least until he proves he’s better than the version of him we’ve seen in the last two years.
I agree with you on that. But he still adds floor spacing and shooting which is always in demand. I could see a team like NYK too if they strike out on FA. He has two years left, it’s not like 4-6 years.
In Stone and Fertitta I don’t trust.
I think the “right return” for Gordon is anybody who will take him off their hands. Probably true for Wall, too.
I heard a rumor that Harden wants to go back to the Rockets… Any truth to that?
(KIDDING!!!)
After a few years in Brooklyn, and after suffering more failed attempts at winning a championship, he would be smart to want to go back to Houston by then as they return to being contenders over the next few seasons.
Yeah when he’s the Humpty Dumpty version of a NBA player.
Gonna take more than a few seasons.
Other than Wood, there’s no assets here that would fetch anything close to 1st in a trade (meaning where the Rockets get the 1st). It might be a case of why bother.
Wall and Gordon? High negative value, which would certainly require a 1st if not multiple 1st’s to move. As a rebuilding team (not near the tax line), there’s no reason for them to go in that direction. Augustin, zero value at that number. House, slight positive value (2nd maybe).
Best course of action is to do nothing this off season except draft well. With virtually no talented young players to build on, they’re in the rare position to use and keep all 3 1st rounders. Let another year come off the toxic contracts, and prepare for next year’s lottery.
House is easily worth a 2nd round pick, possibly even two. Augustin is on a team-friendly contract and the Bucks would gladly have him back right now after losing their backup PG (DiVincenzo). Both could easily be moved.
And virtually no talented young players to build on? They have at least 3 of them to build on, including Kevin Porter Jr. (one of the youngest players to score 50 points in a game). Plus Jae’Sean Tate and KJ Martin who were probably the two most underrated rookies in the NBA this season.
Just compare their stats to all of the other top rookies in 2021.
Nah, you can keep Augustin. Thanks for asking though.
The Bucks probably could’ve used him to avoid their 3-2 deficit.
Augustin is not a difference maker.
No, probably not.
Donte might be a different story, but Augustin’s contract is paying him 4x his actual value.
Houston needs badly that top-4 pick, otherwise it’s going to be years of wandering in the wilderness for them. It’s not that they would make the playoffs next year even if they retained the pick, but getting one of the top guards would give them some foundation (alongside Wood and Porter Jr.) to start the rebuild.
A big “What If?” to me is that possible Simmons for Harden swap that didn’t happen. And I think it’s a big “What If?” for both sides.
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Houston got Oladipo who ended up being nothing. Then a hoard of picks that will be almost impossible to judge as a whole before Harden turns 40.
I’m not exactly a fan of Simmons, but at least he’s something – with Wood – that you could potentially be attempting to build around.
As constructed, unless you think Porter is that guy (seems low probability), then you’re relying almost 100% on the vicissitudes of the Draft Lottery. That could be a very, very long road.
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Then for Philly – I mean, it’s not just adding Harden to Philly, it’s SUBTRACTING him from Brooklyn. Is Harden and Embiid in Philly – with a KD/Kyrie Brooklyn – not the EC favorite for the next 3-4 years?
I really think, in retrospect, that we’re going to say Morey dropped the ball there, especially considering that Embiid doesn’t strike me as a guy who’s playing well into his 30s.
He’s 27 now. Would anyone be surprised if he was essentially done in 3 years? His prime and remainder of Harden’s prime might actually be identical.
To me, the time for Philly to go all in was right now, and I think they might have missed the opportunity.
I would be surprised if Embiid is done in 3 years!
They could very well make the playoffs in 2022 if you add a C. Cunningham or Jalen Suggs to their roster, or at least make the play-in tournament.
Not a chance to even sniff the playoffs. Like it or not there are so many holes on the team they need to rebuild not even think of wanting to compete and waste what they have.
We shall see. 35 wins is well within reach for Houston.
If everyone can stay healthy most of the season, maybe 40.
Maybe in the East. I think that’ll be a tall order in the West.
Kemba & a pick for Wall…
Just one pick?
Im 100% taking the profit on a trade of Wood if it’s there
Lots of super desperate teams this year.
They should be able to squeeze the lemon pretty tight if they follow the tea leaves on the market with some good media slips/ PR work beforehand
Det should do the same with Grant as well
Why would they, unless someone makes an outrageous offer for him?
They have have a ton of first round draft picks this year and the next two.
Plus the rest of the picks they will be getting from Brooklyn through 2026.
If they need to free up spots on the roster moving Augustin and/or House is an option. The Rockets will likely re-sign both Olynyk and Nwaba, and could also use either their BAE or MLE to re-sign Sterling Brown too. If they want to, re-signing DJ Wilson as a #3 center is also a cheap alternative. There’s no point in exercising Bradley’s team option. Plus they have two sizable trade exceptions if needed.
Summary: the Rockets’ roster is a pile of hot trash, and they also have Christian Wood, who can probably singlehandedly lead this team to 10 wins.
Do you take his 10 wins and go for that dreamy 14-68 season, or do you do the rational thing?… Tilman..?