With the offseason trades of Chris Paul and Dennis Schröder last fall, the Thunder officially transitioned from playoff contention to full-scale rebuild.
The team added four first-round picks and multiple second-round picks through deals for Paul, Kelly Oubre (acquired from the Suns in the Paul trade), Danny Green (acquired in the Schröder trade), and other maneuvers, while adding one of the highest-upside rookies in the draft class, the very raw Aleksej Pokusevski, along with solid second round pick Theo Maledon.
An injury limited star point guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander to just 35 games, while last season’s breakout rookie Luguentz Dort was also in and out of the lineup due to injury. Finally, the team made the decision to bench Al Horford for the second half of the season to allow the young players more minutes and opportunity.
All these factors contributed to the Thunder having their worst year since the 2008/09 season, when they went 23-59 and were rewarded with the third pick, which they used to draft James Harden. The Thunder will hope for similar lottery luck this summer.
The Thunder’s Offseason Plan:
After making a surprise move to trade Horford, former undrafted center Moses Brown, and a 2023 second-round pick for Kemba Walker, the 16th pick in this year’s draft, and a 2025 second round pick, the Thunder are in an unparalleled position to make a trade, either for a disgruntled young star, or to move up in this year’s draft.
They have five picks in the top 36 of this year’s draft, including three top-2o selections, and have 18 total first round picks over the next six years. They also will be able to swap the 18th pick for the Rockets’ pick this year if it drops out of the top four (there’s about a 48% chance this will happen). Their own pick has a 45% chance of landing in the top four. It’s unlikely the Thunder will use all six of their picks in this year’s draft, making them a prime candidate to make more trades.
Walker, the lone veteran on the roster, stands as a clear target to be moved, either in a draft-day trade or as part of a separate deal in free agency. Walker is owed nearly $74MM over the next two years, assuming he picks up his 2022/23 player option, but he can still be a dangerous scorer and play-maker, despite a down year.
Salary Cap Situation
Note: Our salary cap projections are based on a presumed 3% increase, which would result in a $112.4MM cap for 2021/22.
Guaranteed Salary
- Kemba Walker ($36,016,200)
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander ($5,495,532)
- Aleksej Pokusevski ($3,113,160)
- Darius Bazley ($2,513,040)
- Ty Jerome ($2,412,840)
- Theo Maledon ($2,000,000)
- Luguentz Dort ($1,782,621)
- Kyle Singler ($999,200) — Waived via stretch provision.
- Patrick Patterson ($737,066) — Waived.
- Admiral Schofield ($300,000) — Waived.
- Total: $55,369,659
Player Options
- None
Team Options
- None
Non-Guaranteed Salary
- Gabriel Deck ($3,676,852)
- Kenrich Williams ($2,000,000)
- Isaiah Roby ($1,782,621) 1
- Charlie Brown Jr. ($1,701,593)
- Total: $9,161,066
Restricted Free Agents
- Tony Bradley ($5,277,669 qualifying offer / $10,626,180 cap hold): Bird rights
- Sviatoslav Mykhailiuk ($2,079,826 qualifying offer / $2,079,826 cap hold): Bird rights
- Total (cap holds): $12,706,006
Two-Way Free Agents
Draft Picks
- No. 6 overall pick ($5,988,000)
- No. 16 overall pick ($3,2146,80)
- No. 18 overall pick ($2,901,240)
- No. 35 overall pick (no cap hold)
- No. 36 overall pick (no cap hold)
- No. 55 overall pick (no cap hold)
- Total: $12,103,920
Extension-Eligible Players
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (rookie scale)
- Isaiah Roby (veteran)
- Kemba Walker (veteran)
Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds
- Mike Muscala ($1,669,178): Early Bird rights
- Deonte Burton ($1,669,178): Early Bird rights 2
- Norris Cole ($1,669,178): Non-Bird rights 2
- Nick Collison ($1,669,178): Bird rights 2
- Raymond Felton ($1,669,178): Early Bird rights 2
- Total: $8,345,890
Offseason Cap Outlook
The Thunder have the flexibility to go in a number of different directions this offseason, but the most likely outcome – at least to start the offseason – is that they operate as an above-the-cap team in order to retain their many trade player exceptions, as well as the mid-level and bi-annual exceptions.
Williams, Roby and Deck all played well for the Thunder this season and seem likely to have their contracts guaranteed. The cap hold for the Thunder’s first first round pick is likely to be in $5.5MM-$8.3MM range. If the Thunder want to use cap space to throw a lucrative offer at a restricted free agent, they will have to renounce their exceptions.
Much of their cap situation will revolve around whether they’re able to unload Walker’s money to a team that needs a point guard — the Knicks stand out as one team with a need at the position and the cap space to absorb him without needing to send major money back to OKC.
The other big question facing the Thunder is if they can come to terms with Gilgeous-Alexander on a max rookie scale extension. If so, he’ll likely command a five-year, maximum-salary contract that would pay him a projected $167MM+ and would run until the 2026/27 season.
Cap Exceptions Available
- Mid-level exception: $9,536,000 3
- Bi-annual exception: $3,732,000 3
- Trade exception: $27,528,088
- Trade exception: $12,800,000
- Trade exception: $10,100,000
- Trade exception: $9,590,602
- Trade exception: $1,517,981
- Trade exception: $908,960
- Trade exception: $865,853
- Trade exception: $850,600
- Trade exception: $332,940
Footnotes
- Roby’s salary becomes fully guaranteed after August 4.
- The cap holds for these players remain on the Thunder’s books from prior seasons because they haven’t been renounced. They can’t be used in a sign-and-trade deal.
- These are projected values. If the Thunder use cap room, they’d renounce these exceptions and their TPEs and would only have the room exception ($4.9MM) available.
Salary and cap information from Basketball Insiders and RealGM was used in the creation of this post. Luke Adams contributed to this post.
Cue jealous houston fans (wallyworld and others) comments about how we’re in a terrible situation and houston is so much better in 5….4….3….2…
It’s a form of coping since OKC destroyed them in the Westbrook trade and still somehow got more for Harden than the Rocekts did.
How exactly did OKC get more for Harden? I’d love to hear that ridiculous statement backed up. There were 3 other players sent to Houston along with Harden from OKC: Daequan Cook, Cole Aldrich, and Lazar Hayward. The Thunder ended up with Kevin Martin and Jeremy Lamb plus picks that were used for Steven Adams (ask the Pels fans how much they love him), Mitch McGary (who was a total bust), and Alex Abrines. That’s quite a haul. Right?
The Rockets get 4 first round picks and 4 swaps (although the one this year wasn’t used). Dante Exum, Rodions Kurucs, and Oladipo weren’t much but Kurucs was sent to the Bucks (along with Tucker) in a favorable deal. They also got a great deal with Miami for Dipo, even though Avery Bradley is no longer what he used to be. Olynyk is a perfect fit for their offense and will be easy to re-sign this summer. Plus they will be able to swap the pick they get from Brooklyn next year for Miami’s, which could be significant. And best of all they were able to acquire Kevin Porter Jr. for absolutely nothing after the Harden trade. So yeah, OKC got more? Uh-huh.
4 late 1st round picks is absolutely meaningless for a proven superstar. None of them will be a lottery pick and the Rockets will never be better than the Nets to use the swap. The lottery pick used on Adams is going to be higher than any pick the Rockets will get. And you acting like Olynyk is any haul for prime James Harden is comical. Pelicans got Ingram, Ball, Hart , #4 overall and two other firsts just so the Lakers could rent AD. Harden was under control for multiple seasons and the Rockets got junk. Cope.
I’m not a Houston fan and I still think OKC is in a terrible situation. It will take a minimum of 4-5 years and that is the best case scenario of getting 3 lucky draft picks in a row like Durant, Westbrook, and Harden again. Worst case scenario is the league having another small market Minnesota Timberwolves or Sacramento Kings that is in a constant state of rebuild for years at a time.
Terrible? Ummm…How? 18 1sts over 6 years, and a management that is known for drafting stars, is hardly a terrible situation.
Drafting 3 MVP’s was great, but how long did they keep them?
Harden was gone almost immediately, KD left and they got nothing in return (great job), and then Westbrick got them a couple of late first round picks and maybe a shot at a good pick swap this year if they’re lucky. OKC will remain in the lottery with Kemba as their star player, while Houston will be contenders sooner than expected.
How many all stars has Houston drafted over the past decade? Harden couldn’t wait to get out of Houston because he knew the team wasn’t going anywhere.
The Rockets never made a Finals with James Harden and other all stars. But sure contenders soon in H town!
Fair point on Harden, trading Harden instead of Ibaka was in retrospect a terrible move.
But they had Durant 9 years and Russ I believe either 10 or 11. The team was a legitimate contender for half a decade during that period. They took the 73 win GSW team to 7 games. I’d say that era was a win for the franchise as a whole – even if they ultimately fell short of a ring.
Oh, Minneapolis and Sacramento are the #15th and #20th largest media markets respectively. Sacramento and San Francisco are so close that two markets bleed into one another.
Test
Thunder trade Westbrook for Paul and 4 Firsts
Then they fix Paul psycho injury and trade him for 2 Firsts,
They trade Schroeder for 3 Firsts from Lakers, 76ers, Celtics
They trade George for 6 Fists and Shai 3 year rookie contract
Prediction
They will try to fix Kemba Walker psycho injury and sell him for new 2 Firsts
My friends does this kind of business
Buy $2 million damaged house, then fix it and sell the house for $3 million
Another friend buy damaged car for $2,000 then fix it and sell for $8,000
Any chance there’s something like…
Kemba Walker, Tony Bradley and this years 18th overall pick for KP and Dwight Powell.
OKC trade away Walkers massive deal, Bradley’s expiring deal and the 18th pick for KP who is still only 25 and this year averaged 20-9-1.5, plus Dwight Powell.
OKC would be know that KP is more likely to boost his value than Walker and in the future would get a better package for him. Plus KP would be great alongside Polusevski who plays a similar game. Powell would give you a decent role player with a very easily moved contract. He could also increase his value and be a trade piece.
Dallas would get themselves Kemba to go with Luka. Tony Bradley would be worth keeping through FA and then the 18th overall pick aswell.
KP6’s extended contract I guess wouldn’t cripple them that much, since they’re probably 5 years away from competing anyway. Although I think they’d probably want the pick instead of sending out (otherwise why bother with KP?)
Bradley is a free agent.
Let’s see if Kemba can do what CP3 did in OKC.
Hopefully their smarter than doofus Danny was with all those picks and trades some instead of using every single one of them
Keep KW as back up PG, draft Green and a big.
Okc has nearly 40% to Land #1-4 + #5
So two great rookies, maybe one back and one front…
So 40%
G-rookie (cade, jalen)
SGA
Dort
F-rookie
With a good C will be a great team in 2 years
Maledon, Shai, Pokusevski are talented guys. They should just let Kemba heal n play. They will get value for him. They can trade up for a starter. Or get a big in first rd. I was them I would go and get Bagley from Kings. With all those picks they can trade for a nic young player. SGA played best as SG next to Chris. I’d think that should his position. Maledon can backup Kemba. That’s a solid three guard rotation. 1st rd this has plenty talent.
SGA plays best with the ball up top. Bas.Ref. says his usual position is a 3, which probably means he guards 3s. Maybe he prefers to IDK. I doubt the HC pushes him off the point, but like Al, I don’t see many OKC games either.
Shai should be asking for a trade, not a rookie extension. OKC will not win for the 4 years he will have ahead of him. Some teams need a PG; this team will “see what they have” at the 1 perhaps endlessly. Maledon or Kemba now, or Jerome, a 2.
If the thunder get the Rockets pick they should trade the 16th, 18th, 35th and 36th to move up in the draft with Raptors who are projected to be around #8.
Raptors need an influx of talent around Siakam, Van Vleet, Gary Trent Jr. 2 1sts and 2 high 2nds would give them an immediate boost to the roster.
Thunder have a lot of guys under contract already and between Rockets, their pick, and raptors pick they’d have 3 top 10 picks to build around SGA.
Evan Mobley if Thunder get #2, Jalen Green if they get Rockets at #5, and Corey Kispert if they get Raptors at #8