Having made the Eastern Conference Finals in 2017, 2018, and 2020, the Celtics entered the 2020/21 season looking to make it at least that far again. But things never quite gelled for this year’s iteration of the C’s, as injuries, COVID-19 issues, and inconsistent on-court production were all major factors in a disappointing year.
The Celtics still made the playoffs, but it took a play-in win to get there after the team finished with an underwhelming .500 record (36-36). And Boston’s postseason run was short-lived, as the club was unceremoniously dispatched by Brooklyn in the first round.
Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown still look like capable cornerstones on a future title contender, but the Celtics will need to find a way to surround them with more reliable complementary pieces. That task will fall to Brad Stevens, who made the move from the sidelines to the front office after longtime president of basketball operations Danny Ainge stepped down.
In his first month on the job, Stevens wasted no time in completing a pair of major moves, hiring Ime Udoka to replace him as Boston’s head coach and sending Kemba Walker and a first-round pick to Oklahoma City for Al Horford and Moses Brown in a trade that will create some added financial flexibility for the franchise over the next two seasons.
The Celtics’ Offseason Plan:
Moving Walker’s oversized contract should help the Celtics avoid a significant tax bill in 2021/22, but replacing him with Horford doesn’t really move the needle for the team on the court. More roster moves will be necessary to make Boston a legitimate contender.
Besides the contracts for Tatum, Brown, and Marcus Smart, all of which are good values, the Celtics’ guaranteed salaries fall into two groups: veteran big men who are probably overpaid (Horford and Tristan Thompson, earning a combined $37MM), and inexpensive role players still on their rookie deals (Romeo Langford, Robert Williams, Aaron Nesmith, Grant Williams, Payton Pritchard, and Carsen Edwards).
If the Celtics hope to increase their ceiling, they’ll need to either cobble together a reliable rotation from those pieces or use them to trade for rotation players. It may be time to start moving on from some of those former first-round picks who haven’t developed like the team has hoped. Two or three of those players could be keepers – Pritchard had an especially promising rookie season – but Boston should be willing to deal several of the others — having not drafted them himself, Stevens may not feel as attached to them as Ainge did.
Meanwhile, Horford’s contract is only partially guaranteed beyond this season and Thompson’s deal is expiring, so both players are movable, even if they don’t have positive value. The Celtics also have a handful of trade exceptions that could be useful, including one worth $11MM.
In free agency, figuring out a new deal with Evan Fournier figures to be a top priority. If you take into account the two second-round picks the Celtics sent the Hornets last offseason to generate the massive trade exception later used to take on Fournier, the cost to acquire him essentially worked out to four second-rounders. The organization won’t want to let him walk for nothing after paying that price.
The Celtics also figure to discuss contract extensions with Smart and Robert Williams, both of whom are entering the final year of their contracts. Smart, who should have a bigger role with Walker gone, may have more leverage to negotiate a lucrative new deal than Williams, who could find himself battling for minutes in a crowded frontcourt. Of course, if Stevens wants to take another big swing on the trade market for a point guard, Smart may have to be included in Boston’s offer.
Salary Cap Situation
Note: Our salary cap projections are based on a presumed 3% increase, which would result in a $112.4MM cap for 2021/22.
Guaranteed Salary
- Jayson Tatum ($28,103,500) 1
- Al Horford ($27,000,000)
- Jaylen Brown ($25,312,500)
- Marcus Smart ($14,339,285)
- Tristan Thompson ($9,720,900)
- Romeo Langford ($3,804,360)
- Robert Williams ($3,661,976)
- Aaron Nesmith ($3,631,200)
- Grant Williams ($2,617,800)
- Payton Pritchard ($2,137,440)
- Carsen Edwards ($1,782,621)
- Guerschon Yabusele ($1,039,080) — Waived via stretch provision.
- Moses Brown ($500,000) — Partial guarantee. Non-guaranteed portion noted below.
- Demetrius Jackson ($92,857) — Waived via stretch provision.
- Total: $123,743,519
Player Options
- None
Team Options
- None
Non-Guaranteed Salary
- Jabari Parker ($2,283,034) 2
- Moses Brown ($1,201,593)
- Total: $3,484,627
Restricted Free Agents
- None
Two-Way Free Agents
Draft Picks
- No. 45 overall pick (no cap hold)
Extension-Eligible Players
- Robert Williams (rookie scale)
- Carsen Edwards (veteran)
- Al Horford (veteran)
- Marcus Smart (veteran)
Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds
Evan Fournier ($26,175,000): Bird rights
- Luke Kornet ($2,925,000): Early Bird rights
- Semi Ojeleye ($1,669,178): Bird rights
- Total: $30,769,178
Offseason Cap Outlook
The Celtics will certainly be over the cap this summer. Whether or not they go over the luxury tax line depends on whether Fournier returns and whether the team cuts costs in trades. If we assume Fournier re-signs at a reasonable rate (perhaps $15MM), Boston would need to shed some salary elsewhere to stay out of the tax.
Without Fournier, the Celtics may have enough breathing room to use the entire non-taxpayer mid-level exception. But my bet for now is that Fournier will be back and that the team will be limited to the taxpayer MLE.
Cap Exceptions Available
- Taxpayer mid-level exception: $5,890,000 4
- Trade exception: $11,050,000
- Trade exception: $6,879,100
- Trade exception: $5,000,000
- Trade exception: $4,767,000
- Trade exception: $370,564
- Trade exception: $343,873
Footnotes
- This is a projected value. Tatum’s salary will be 25% of the 2021/22 salary cap.
- Parker’s salary becomes partially guaranteed ($100K) after July 31.
- Because they have been on two-way contracts with the Celtics for two seasons, Fall and Waters are eligible for standard minimum-salary qualifying offers.
- This is a projected value. If the Celtics stay far enough below the tax apron, they could have access to the full mid-level exception ($9.5MM) and the bi-annual exception ($3.7MM).
Salary and cap information from Basketball Insiders, RealGM, and ESPN was used in the creation of this post.
Stevens has been aggressive so far, or possibly itching to make a difference, but he should be conservative with personnel, until he finds out who responds to Ime Udoka.
Who gets credit if Celtics win – Stevens or Udoka?? And who gets the blame if they lose?
Udoka
Stevens
Udoka won’t last a season with Smart as a starting PG! C’s need a Beal or a Dame to compete in eastern conference. They kept on stacking so many picks that turned into a bunch of mediocre kids! Presti better be taking notes from their failure!
I’d be willing to bet that most teams wouldn’t mind mediocre kids like Tatum and Brown.
Which “stacked” picks turned into “mediocre kids”?
Let’s see,
Yabusele
Langford
Williams
Edwards
Fall
Waters…
fall was an undrafted free agent.
theres only like 2 rotation players drafted after grant williams
waters was the 57th pick
edwards was a second rounder.
langford was the only lottery pick, and he was the last pick of the lottery. he’s also only 21 and has been hurt. still might be a solid rotation piece.
only complete whiff was yabusele and he was 16th pick, which isnt a lock pick.
Only three of this were first round draft picks. If you consider 2nd round picks “stacked” then you’re a boob. You’ve also conveniently left out Tatum, Brown, Smart, the luck they traded for Irving… But by all means, proceed with you’re nonsense.
They’ve had a hoard of picks since they did the Nets deal. Danny was great at acquiring picks. Not so good at drafting outside the Top-5/6 tho. So yea I’d say they wasted all that draft capital. They should have been a lot more aggressive in trades not just FA. The Gordon move was the right idea and it didn’t work out. The Kemba move was the right idea and it didn’t work out.
And the Kyrie trade was a failure too! All they got now is Tatum! Brown is 3rd best option and very inconsistent.
I guess it really depends where Tatum and Brown end up peaking. If Tatum ends up catapulting to that top 10 level (possible) and Brown to a 3rd team All NBA level (possible) then I think Boston did well enough even if they whiffed on a bunch of other picks (altho Rozier and Smart were both wins even if Terry left)
The Gordon and Kyrie thing was a mix of bad luck and Kyrie’s temperament. Which I think soured the locker room for Brad long term
The Kemba thing I think was avoidable. The writing was the on the wall w/ him, and he didn’t exactly fit the timelines (or styles) of J&J.
yeah I’m a bulls fan but to say he wasted drafts is crazy. they made a great trade out of 1 to get tatum. bradley, brown, tatum, r williams, smart, rozier. in the last 10 years hes been about average to slightly above in drafting. the issue you mention about not being aggressive enough might be true but you cant really say that without knowing whats on the table. just leave not hitting on second rounders out of the question, theres basically one rotation player per draft in the second.
Name a GM who is good at drafting outside “the top 5/6”?
C’s should not bring back Fournier!! He was awful during that short stint! Might as well get an undrafted SG and teach him some game!
I think this team has a solid chance of surprising people next year. There was clearly something off with Stevens on the sidelines, and if healthy I think Horford is a better fit with J&J. Tatum was great last season once he got healthy and Brown had a breakout year before his injury.
I agree it probably makes sense for them to retain Fournier if they can get him around 15 per. Smart-J&J-Fournier-Horford is an intriguing lineup.
Then the bench, who knows? Hopefully Pritchard continues to develop, R Williams can stay healthy, that gets them to 7.
Moses Brown is solid and if Nesmith can improve in his late season performances that might actually be a half decent 9-man rotation.
And if Udoku can actually convince Brown and Tatum to ditch 90s iso ball then this team might even be a dark horse next season, depending on how Atlanta NY and Philly spend their offseason.
i think williams is getting shipped, sign and trade for devonte graham would be interesting, add thompson for salary matching purposes maybe lottery protected 2023 first. charlotte needs bigs, celtics could us a point guard that can shoot.
I like that — Graham would be a good fit if he can bounce back from his down year.
Although some are super high on Williams so IDK if they’d ship him for just Graham. I might tho.
OK let’s just get this out the way. I told you he was a big piece of their success. Horford is the guy they NEVER replaced. You welcome, only been saying it since he left. Ok so who is going to play PG. Smart can back it up. But he’s not a starting PG. Celts will have either sign one or trade for one. This team is ready Now . So they need a PG who is ready now. Scary Terry sure would fit.
Everything you said is, or was, conventional wisdom. Are you debating someone who says otherwise? So what if “I told you”. Tell me something novel or take some risk or be personal.
That was such a good trade for BOS, swapping Kemba that has a negative value for Big Al that has a positive value… & then getting Brown that is more valuable than the pick they send back, so a great win win for BOS right there.
If they play Horford as the starter, then Brown must be the back up, which means they must try to get whatever they can for Williams, it won’t be easy but surely if they got that good for Kemba they might get something for Williams.
Any chance Smart/Pritchard can hold down PG. considering how well Jaylon and Tatum can handle. I like Pritchard should be better after getting over rookie jitters.
I was very underwhelmed by Fournier. Pass.
I think the draft picks issue noted above is partially true.
Could you have packaged picks instead of drafting all of those 10 – 20 first rounders? Williams, Langford, Nesmith, etc.
Singe did a great job and but needed to get Kyrie and Hayward signed. Once they left and Kenna under achieved he was screwed and the compounded it with Fournier.
Horford is a great passer but have to limit minutes at his age.
550K of Moses Brown’s 21/22 money was guaranteed in the OKC-Boston trade.
Thanks for catching that (though I’ve only seen it reported as $500K rather than $550K).
Correct. I meant 500K.