Any discussion about how injuries affected the 2021 NBA postseason probably has to start with the Nets and the Lakers, but the Nuggets shouldn’t be overlooked. After acquiring Aaron Gordon at the trade deadline in March, Denver was firing on all cylinders and looked capable of seriously competing for a spot in the NBA Finals.
Those good vibes didn’t last long though. After the Nuggets won eight of their first nine games with Gordon in the lineup, disaster struck in the 10th game, as Jamal Murray suffered a torn ACL that ended his season and will keep him sidelined for the start of the 2021/22 campaign.
The resilient Nuggets still finished the season strong and won a playoff series against Portland. But without Murray, who averaged 26.5 PPG on a scorching .505/.453/.897 shooting line in 19 playoffs games (39.6 MPG) in 2020, the odds of the team making a deep postseason run took a nosedive.
As tempting as it to imagine “what if?” scenarios about how the second-round series against Phoenix might have played out with a healthy Murray, the Nuggets have to turn their attention to figuring out how to make up for his absence to start next season — and how to put themselves in title contention again in 2022.
The Nuggets’ Offseason Plan:
With Nikola Jokic, Michael Porter Jr., Murray, Gordon, and Monte Morris all under contract for next season, the Nuggets have an enviable core to build upon. Still, there are a number of rotation questions for the team to address this summer.
Will Barton ($14.7MM) and JaMychal Green ($7.6MM) face player option decisions after playing key roles for Denver in 2020/21. Barton, in particular, was an important part of the Nuggets’ success, starting 52 games for the club and serving as a reliable secondary scorer and play-maker. Green’s role was more modest, but he provided reliable depth at the power forward spot and could play the five if needed. The Nuggets, who would probably be just fine with both players opting in, will have to figure out how to replace or re-sign them if they opt out.
Meanwhile, Paul Millsap, JaVale McGee, and Austin Rivers will be unrestricted free agents. The club can withstand losing all three players if necessary, but their contributions shouldn’t be overlooked. Millsap has helped stabilize the frontcourt defense during his time in Denver, while Rivers ended up playing big minutes for the team following injuries to Murray and Barton. I imagine the Nuggets will at least explore bringing all three players back, but if the cost is much higher than the minimum, they may let them walk.
Having already cashed in some of their trade chips for Gordon, the Nuggets seem unlikely to make another major splash in the trade market this offseason, preferring instead to add reinforcements using their draft pick (No. 26 overall) and the mid-level exception.
Whether or not Barton is back, I expect the club will be focused in free agency on finding a guard with some size who can play alongside Morris or Facundo Campazzo in the backcourt. If Green or Millsap returns to join Jokic, Gordon, and Porter, the frontcourt shouldn’t be as high a priority — especially if the team believes Nnaji or Bol is ready to contribute.
Finally, it’s worth noting that Porter will be extension-eligible this offseason and will likely be in line for a max deal or something close to it. While the idea of paying Porter the max with Jokic and Murray already on the books for big money may give the Nuggets pause, extending MPJ is probably the right thing to do — he’s improving at such a rate that he’d still be a positive asset on a more lucrative contract, barring health issues.
Salary Cap Situation
Note: Our salary cap projections are based on a presumed 3% increase, which would result in a $112.4MM cap for 2021/22.
Guaranteed Salary
- Nikola Jokic ($31,579,390)
- Jamal Murray ($29,467,800)
- Aaron Gordon ($16,409,091)
- Monte Morris ($8,449,074)
- Michael Porter Jr. ($5,258,735)
- Facundo Campazzo ($3,200,000)
- Zeke Nnaji ($2,498,760)
- Bol Bol ($2,161,152)
- Total: $99,024,002
Player Options
Will Barton ($14,669,642): Bird rights 1- JaMychal Green ($7,559,748): Non-Bird rights 2
- Total: $22,229,390
Team Options
- None
Non-Guaranteed Salary
- PJ Dozier ($1,910,860) 3
- Vlatko Cancar ($1,782,621) 4
- Total: $3,693,481
Restricted Free Agents
- None
Two-Way Free Agents
Draft Picks
- No. 26 overall pick ($2,096,880)
- Total: $2,096,880
Extension-Eligible Players
- Michael Porter Jr. (rookie scale)
- Will Barton (veteran)
- Vlatko Cancar (veteran)
- Aaron Gordon (veteran)
Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds
- Paul Millsap ($15,000,000): Bird rights
- JaVale McGee ($7,980,000): Bird rights
- Austin Rivers ($1,669,178): Non-Bird rights
- Troy Daniels ($1,669,178): Non-Bird rights 6
- Richard Jefferson ($1,669,178): Non-Bird rights 6
- Total: $27,987,534
Offseason Cap Outlook
The Nuggets will almost definitely operate over the cap this offseason, and should be able to stay out of tax territory.
Even if we assume Barton and Green pick up their player options, Dozier’s salary is guaranteed, and the team keeps its first-round pick, that would result in about $125MM for 12 players. That would leave Denver with enough flexibility to use its full mid-level exception without crossing the projected tax line (which is in the $136-137MM range).
Cap Exceptions Available
- Mid-level exception: $9,536,000 7
- Trade exception: $5,325,000
- Trade exception: $2,193,480
- Trade exception: $1,620,564
Footnotes
- Barton’s decision is reportedly due by July 17.
- Green’s decision is reportedly due by July 26.
- Dozier’s salary becomes partially guaranteed ($200K) after August 16.
- Cancar’s salary becomes fully guaranteed after August 3.
- Because he’ll have four years of NBA service, Harrison is ineligible to sign another two-way contract.
- The cap holds for Daniels and Jefferson remain on the Nuggets’ books from prior seasons because they haven’t been renounced. They can’t be used in a sign-and-trade deal.
- This is a projected value.
Salary and cap information from Basketball Insiders, RealGM, and ESPN was used in the creation of this post.
If Nuggets resign Milsap at $8 million, they reach luxury tax
Then Porter logs in next year, ….
No team is likely to repeat.the west champ next 5 years
If Millsap comes back it will be for a lot less than that. He’s very unlikely to come back though. They have MPJ and (probably) Green, as well as Nnaji, who looked very promising last year, all at the 4. They could pick up another dude very easily if they need more bodies.
Exactly. Whether with the Nuggets or elsewhere, he’s not getting the same. Maybe, $6.5 or so tops?
If Barton wants more than, say, $17M, unless he’s opting out primarily to get a multyear deal now, I think you have to let him go.
This team really has a chance to be the west favorites come playoff time with some Murray luck !
Don’t buy the clippers with their luck and Kawhi surgery, don’t buy lakers and lewashed James ( movie star) bouncing back ,don’t buy the mavs will get Luka the help , i don’t buy warriors easily just replicating their glory days and I esp the buy the suns going back to back , it’s there for the nuggets
Don’t forget the healthy Jazz.
Suns have only Cam Johnson on the bench
Saric is out for season
Craig will get better offer
Cam Payne is Likely to join Knicks according to reporters
It’s there for them too as well as the teams I was a lil dismissive of! I’m just not anticipating anything! Nuggets have the best chance also to pull a meaningful trade or at least tied with warriors
Nuggets have more overall depth than the Jazz IMO: link to socraticgadfly.blogspot.com
DEN’s FO actually made a real trade last year, and it wasn’t a bad one at all. Before the injuries they were seeing some benefits from it too. Of course, it didn’t really address their main issue, and, being so close to a championship roster, they really need to a deal that does that. Hopefully last year’s deal makes them realize that trades of good for good are possible, even if there’s no trade demand, contract situation or roster rebuild.
Specifically, MPJ and Gordon are both PFs, and while the pairing can work (like MPJ and Grant did), it’s not optimal for either the team or the players. Target a true combo/flex SF. Pair down their stable of PFs by NOT resigning Millsap and try using either MPJ or Gordon in a significant deal for that SF. If Barton comes back, keep him at SG next to Murray, and decide if Morris, Dozier and Campazzo are the right bench pieces, and which of them is a priority. Overall, stop focusing on roster spots 10-15, and strengthen the short rotation with a group that is ready to win playoff games now. Jokic looks like he can play forever, but he can’t.
WHY would you trade Porter, still on a rookie contract and with more upside than Gordon, IF you think one of them has to be traded?
Because trading MPJ gets the Nuggets more back, and they would not have to support a third max after next year.
I only see one poster “soured on Gordon”, not many posters as is said in your blog. Indeed DXC is nearly equating Gordon and MPJ and Gordon is not a max candidate.
I think Gordon needs a full runup to tell if he fits. Since his main job will be to integrate and balance MPJ, he has a tough job. Conveniently he is signed for one more year.
I would imagine Gordon’s trade value is much lower than MPJ’s if they’re hypothetically looking to trade one of the 2.
With Murray out it would have been a great opportunity for Gordon to show that he can be secondary/tertiary offensive option of a good team. Instead he just kind of drifted…
MPJ’s back is frightening and I would support selling high on him if I was Denver.
Would a team desperate for elite talent fork over some assets for him? Could they get Brogdon / Warren? Maybe a Halliburton-based package from Sac?
Denver should trade Gordon to clear cap
He wasn’t a fit and it was obvious.
In the last three years, Barton has missed 37% of Nugget games, including the last two playoff runs. He has a 14 PER in this time. Meanwhile Monte Morris has been outperforming him. If Barton wants to opt out, fine, bye.
Everyone must make less anyway, since they will max MPJ next offseason (and Jokic next). The effect will be like maxxing Wiggins, and Gordon will play the Butler.
There’s a world where having Jokic, Murray, and Porter on max deals is easy enough. 3 elite players, surround them with budget ring chasers, and you’re in the conversation every year thru 2026.
But Murray is coming off a serious injury and was lacking in consistency even prior to it. Porter’s back acted up this playoffs, which is not exactly encouraging when his max deal is looming.
So I think Denver needs to tread carefully here. They have a generational talent in Jokic. One deal I like that I heard on Lowe’s podcast is a package around Murray for Dame. Match your sure thing (Jokic) with another sure thing (Dame) and make a run for it right now.
The former approach is tempting and in theory has more longevity. But Denver can look south to Dallas and see how investing in young guys with injury histories can backfire.
Both the nets and bucks won series without their star players.
Tells me something about the nuggets