The Pacers were a beacon of regular-season consistency for most of the 2010s. Beginning in 2011/12, they finished below .500 just once in nine years, making the playoffs in eight of those seasons.
However, Indiana’s postseason runs were generally short-lived. The team was eliminated in the first round five straight times from 2016-20 and was just 3-16 in the playoffs during head coach Nate McMillan‘s tenure, resulting in McMillan’s ouster prior to the 2020/21 campaign.
There was optimism entering the season that new head coach Nate Bjorkgren and two-time All-Star Victor Oladipo – nearly two years removed from a brutal leg injury – could lead the Pacers to greater heights. Instead, injuries to Oladipo and several other key players derailed Indiana’s year, and Bjorkgren alienated Pacers players and coaches alike. Oladipo was traded during the season and Bjorkgren was dismissed after just one year.
Indiana still had enough talent to make the play-in tournament in May, and there’s reason to believe that better injury luck and the influence of new head coach Rick Carlisle could produce far better results in 2021/22. If not, the roster could be in line for a major overhaul.
The Pacers’ Offseason Plan:
Most of the Pacers’ starters and rotation players are under contract for the 2021/22 season, but there are a pair of notable exceptions who will be unrestricted free agents.
T.J. McConnell played an increased role during his second season in Indiana, and responded by establishing career-best marks in PPG (8.6), APG (6.6), and FG% (55.9%). The 29-year-old is a career backup who is never a threat to score 40 points in a game (his career high is 23), but his contributions shouldn’t be overlooked. He’s a talented play-maker and hard-nosed defender, and the Pacers were better both offensively and defensively when he was on the court this year.
Doug McDermott is the team’s other key unrestricted free agent. He’s considered a three-point specialist, and he certainly does that well, having knocked down 41.1% of his attempts from beyond the arc during his three years with the Pacers. But he has also shown that he’s more than just a catch-and-shoot player, developing new ways to score off the dribble and inside the arc — his 13.6 PPG and .532 FG% in 2020/21 were easily career highs.
The Pacers enter the offseason over the cap, so re-signing both McConnell and McDermott won’t be simple, but Carlisle singled out both players as priorities during his introductory press conference this week.
Indiana could create some extra cap flexibility to bring those free agents back by being active on the trade market. While it remains to be seen whether this will be the year that the team finally decides to break up the frontcourt duo of Domantas Sabonis and Myles Turner, there are other trade candidates on the roster.
Jeremy Lamb, who is on an expiring deal, and Aaron Holiday, who has long been mentioned in trade rumors, are potential candidates to be on the move. The No. 13 pick in this year’s draft would be an appealing chip if Indiana doesn’t want to bring in a rookie, but the cost certainty of that pick would help balance some of the higher-priced players on the roster.
T.J. Warren is also entering the final year of his contract, but seems less likely to be dealt unless the Pacers don’t expect him to re-sign in 2022. If any of the team’s starters are dealt, it would likely only be for an upgrade. The Pacers reportedly offered Malcolm Brogdon in a deal for Ben Simmons, for instance.
Salary Cap Situation
Note: Our salary cap projections are based on a presumed 3% increase, which would result in a $112.4MM cap for 2021/22.
Guaranteed Salary
- Malcolm Brogdon ($21,700,000)
- Domantas Sabonis ($19,800,000)
- Myles Turner ($18,000,000)
- Caris LeVert ($17,500,000)
- T.J. Warren ($12,940,000)
- Jeremy Lamb ($10,500,000)
- Justin Holiday ($6,006,420)
- Aaron Holiday ($3,980,551)
- Goga Bitadze ($3,098,400)
- Monta Ellis ($2,245,400) — Waived via stretch provision.
- Amida Brimah (two-way)
- Total: $115,770,771
Player Options
- None
Team Options
- Edmond Sumner ($2,320,000): Bird rights
- Total: $2,320,000
Non-Guaranteed Salary
- Oshae Brissett ($1,701,593)
- Kelan Martin ($1,701,593) 1
- Total: $3,403,186
Restricted Free Agents
- None
Two-Way Free Agents
Draft Picks
- No. 13 overall pick ($3,749,520)
- No. 54 overall pick (no cap hold)
- No. 60 overall pick (no cap hold)
- Total: $3,749,520
Extension-Eligible Players
- Aaron Holiday (rookie scale)
- Malcolm Brogdon (veteran)
- Jeremy Lamb (veteran)
- Caris LeVert (veteran)
- Edmond Sumner (veteran)
- Myles Turner (veteran)
- T.J. Warren (veteran)
Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds
Doug McDermott ($13,933,333): Bird rights- T.J. McConnell ($4,550,000): Early Bird rights
- JaKarr Sampson ($1,669,178): Early Bird rights
- Total: $20,152,511
Offseason Cap Outlook
The Pacers will begin the offseason operating above the cap and under the tax, with nearly $116MM in guaranteed salaries on their books. It’s possible the team could approach luxury-tax territory, losing access to the full mid-level exception, but this organization isn’t one I’d expect to pay tax penalties unless its roster is clearly capable of winning a championship. I don’t think the current group qualifies.
Cap Exceptions Available
- Mid-level exception: $9,536,000 2
- Bi-annual exception: $3,732,000 2
- Trade exception: $4,796,296
- Trade exception: $2,808,844
Footnotes
- Martin’s salary becomes fully guaranteed after August 7.
- These are projected values. If the Pacers approach or cross the tax line, they may forfeit these exceptions and instead gain access to the taxpayer mid-level exception ($5.9MM).
Salary and cap information from Basketball Insiders, RealGM, and ESPN was used in the creation of this post. Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
It’s foolish for the Sixers to believe they’re going to get a better offer for Simmons from someone else.
Once they realize that they should go ahead and just take the deal the Pacers offered them.
Philly probably wishes they were willing to include Simmons in a deal for Harden now.
If you can’t get Ben Simmons, maybe you can get Marcus Smart
Pacers biggest issue is Warren. His physical condition (unreliable) and position (SF or PF). Both were issues since his PHX days. Regardless, right now, with 1 year left on his contract, he’s an asset. With the rest of their payroll and other positional issues, a big extension might be problematic. His status affects the Sabonis-Turner issues as well. Then again, he’s been too good to just move for little value.
Indy doesn’t have the ammo to acquire a player of Simmons caliber the offer is a insult and I’m sure morey put them on hold as he continued his conversation on line 1 with Portland.
They do. Indy is a more successful franchise than Both Portland and the 76er’s. Doc Rivers dreams of being a coach as good as Carlisle. Chauncey Billups we will se if he puts in the work.
Rubbish. Simmons is declining. His refurb is a question.
Simmons has talent no doubt, but the boy is shook. He’s lost his confidence, you don’t pass up an open dunk because you’re afraid of getting fouled.
Interesting. Let’s leave aside playoff failures and do a side by side reg season comparison of Brodgon and Ben:
Ben:
14.3/7.2/6.9 on 56/30/61
PER: 18.3 TS%: .583. BPM: 2.7
Brogdon:
21.3/5.3/5.9 on 45/39/86
PER: 17.9 TS%: .561 BPM: 1.5
Not exactly two different levels of player. Brogdon scores 7 more ppg and actually shoots the ball outside 10 ft and almost has the same TS% as Simmons. If he was getting looks off Embiid post ups it’s not hard to imagine Brogdon shooting 40% from 3 and 60% TS
I would not be surprised if Ben maintains the good advanced stats by refusing to shoot 3s… his % would not be good and would drag his multifactor stats down.
He reminds me of the guy at school who got into a fight by not talking but will not throw the first punch because the principal would say he started the fight, so just stands there with his fists up.
monta ellis hasn’t played since 2016 and he’s still getting a check. this will be his last though.
Brogdan splits time between the 1 and 2. I sure would like to know if there’s a difference in performance. The stats of Myles Turner are def better with true PGs Mcconnell and A.Holiday. Sabonis favors McC a bit in stats too. Sabonis’ on/off tanked this year though PER was steady at 21.
i like indianas payroll structure, it’s how i imagine all teams should be. not top heavy, starters average 10-25 mil, top bench players 5+ mil, and your rook contracts, vets, and developmental guys.