Coming off their championship in the Walt Disney World bubble in 2020, the Lakers enjoyed a very brief offseason, reporting to training camp just over a month-and-a-half after the NBA Finals ended.
Whether that abridged offseason was a major factor in the team’s up-and-down 2020/21 season is debatable. The Lakers showed no ill effects of the quick turnaround in the early going, getting off to a 21-6 start, but things went south from there.
Anthony Davis and LeBron James both missed time due to injuries and didn’t look 100% healthy when they returned. Los Angeles finished the regular season on a 21-24 run and needed a play-in victory to secure a playoff spot.
The Lakers were still viewed as a legitimate championship threat as the No. 7 seed in the West, but fell to the Suns in six games in round one, ensuring that Davis, James, and the rest of the club will get a much longer summer break in 2021.
The Lakers’ Offseason Plan:
The Lakers won’t have to worry about losing either of their two superstars this offseason, as both Davis and James remain under contract for multiple seasons. But those two are the only players who are locks to return to the team in 2021/22.
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Kyle Kuzma, and Marc Gasol are all under contract for at least one more year, but they could be trade candidates if an opportunity arises for Los Angeles to upgrade its roster. Montrezl Harrell has a player option, but could also end up on the trade block if he opts in. And virtually every other player on the roster is a free agent, either unrestricted (Dennis Schröder, Alex Caruso, Markieff Morris, and Andre Drummond, among others) or restricted (Talen Horton-Tucker).
First and foremost, the Lakers will have to determine which of their free agents are the highest priorities.
Schröder is perhaps the most important, given his role (he led the team in minutes played in 2020/21) and the financial considerations at play. The Lakers find themselves in what John Hollinger calls the “Bird rights trap” with Schröder — if he signs elsewhere, the Lakers would still be over the cap without the means to pay another player the sort of salary that Schröder will be seeking (likely $20-25MM per year), which means he has some leverage to squeeze them for a higher salary than they’d like to pay.
The one alternative to either investing heavily in Schröder or losing him for nothing would be to work out a sign-and-trade arrangement sending him to a new team. But I suspect it will be a challenge for Los Angeles to find a club willing to both give the point guard a massive payday and surrender a desirable asset for him.
Besides Schröder, the Lakers’ most important free agents will be Morris, Caruso, and Horton-Tucker. Morris showed a willingness last offseason to accept a discount to be a Laker, and it won’t be surprising if he does so again. But the team will face stiff competition for Caruso and Horton-Tucker and can’t reasonably expect either player – whose career NBA earnings pale in comparison to Morris’ – to take a team-friendly deal.
Caruso will likely get offers worth at least the full mid-level, and it’s not out of the question that Horton-Tucker will too — he’ll be one of the youngest free agents on the market and rival suitors may like the idea of putting pressure on the Lakers to match an aggressive offer sheet.
Determining how to handle the center position will also be a crucial part of the Lakers’ offseason. Gasol, Harrell, and Drummond didn’t have the same kind of success at the five that JaVale McGee and Dwight Howard did the year before, which suggests the team may be better off with players who are happy focusing on rebounding and defense rather than bigs who need to play a major role on offense.
Theoretically, Drummond could play that role, but if offensive touches remain a priority for him, it makes sense to let him seek a new team. Gasol would be content to focus on rebounding and defense, but he has clearly lost a step since his prime, limiting his effectiveness on the defensive end and rendering him almost a non-factor on the offensive end — relying on him to play big minutes would be risky.
I expect the Lakers to spend plenty of time perusing the trade market for upgrades using Caldwell-Pope, Kuzma, and Harrell (if he opts in) as potential chips. But a package that starts with two or three of those guys likely won’t be enough to make the team a favorite to land a true impact player, especially since L.A. has traded away so many of its future first-round picks. Caldwell-Pope, Kuzma, and Harrell can be solid rotation players in the right situation, but none of the three are clear bargains at their current salaries.
Salary Cap Situation
Note: Our salary cap projections are based on a presumed 3% increase, which would result in a $112.4MM cap for 2021/22.
Guaranteed Salary
- LeBron James ($41,180,544)
- Anthony Davis ($35,361,360)
- Kentavious Caldwell-Pope ($13,038,862)
- Kyle Kuzma ($13,000,000)
- Luol Deng ($5,000,000) — Waived via stretch provision.
- Marc Gasol ($2,692,991)
- Total: $110,273,757
Player Options
- Montrezl Harrell ($9,720,900): Non-Bird rights 1
- Total: $9,720,900
Team Options
- None
Non-Guaranteed Salary
- Alfonzo McKinnie ($1,910,860)
- Total: $1,910,860
Restricted Free Agents
- Talen Horton-Tucker ($1,897,476 qualifying offer / $1,897,476 cap hold): Early Bird rights
- Total (cap holds): $1,897,476
Two-Way Free Agents
Draft Picks
- No. 22 overall pick ($2,451,120)
- Total: $2,451,120
Extension-Eligible Players
- Alfonzo McKinnie (veteran)
Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds
Dennis Schröder ($24,000,000): Bird rights
- Alex Caruso ($5,225,000): Bird rights
- Wesley Matthews ($4,347,600): Non-Bird rights
- Jared Dudley ($1,669,178): Early Bird rights
- Markieff Morris ($1,669,178): Early Bird rights
- Andre Drummond ($1,669,178): Non-Bird rights
- Ben McLemore ($1,669,178): Non-Bird rights
- Dion Waiters ($1,669,178): Non-Bird rights 4
- Total: $41,918,490
Offseason Cap Outlook
With $110MM+ committed to five roster spots, the Lakers project to be over the cap before addressing a single one of their free agents. If the team re-signs Schröder, it’s a safe bet Los Angeles will find itself in luxury tax territory in 2021/22.
Even without a new deal for Schröder, the club could end up a taxpayer based on Harrell’s option and potential new contracts for guys like Caruso, Morris, and Horton-Tucker. If they let a bunch of free agents walk or make a cost-cutting trade, the Lakers could theoretically stay below the tax apron and use the full mid-level exception, but I’m not counting on that outcome.
Cap Exceptions Available
- Taxpayer mid-level exception: $5,890,000 5
- Trade exception: $674,408
Footnotes
- Harrell’s decision is reportedly due by July 31.
- Antetokounmpo has reached a contract agreement with French team ASVEL. The Lakers could still make the procedural move of tendering him a qualifying offer if they want to retain matching rights in the event of his return to the NBA. Because he has been on a two-way contract with the Lakers for two seasons, Antetokounmpo is eligible for a standard minimum-salary qualifying offer.
- Because he has been on a two-way contract with the Lakers for two seasons, Cacok is eligible for a standard minimum-salary qualifying offer.
- The cap hold for Waiters remains on the Lakers books from a prior season because he hasn’t been renounced. He can’t be used in a sign-and-trade deal.
- This is a projected value. If the Lakers stay below the tax apron, they could have access to the full mid-level exception ($9.5MM).
Salary and cap information from Basketball Insiders, RealGM, and ESPN was used in the creation of this post.
This will be a make or break offseason for the Lakers. If Lebron’s to win another championship in his career, this offseason will be determinate.
Let’s hope it’s a break off-season then. No team should help the Lakers win another championship this includes Blazers trading Dame to Los Angeles. The Lakers IMO should of traded Horton Tucker for Lowry at the TD.
Don’t worry Lillard is not going to the Lakers. They don’t have enough to offer Portland. Many teams can outbid the Lakers.
Neither la team has a shot at dame
Id say they already had their defining off-season last year and blew it on a bunch of questionable decisions
Now they have no cap space or talent beyond their 2 brittle stars
Sounds like both la teams
They seem well and truly screwed. Let’s see if they can pull a rabbit out of the hat in the form of another veteran willing to take a big discount to play with Bron (and get all the off-court financial benefits of playing on the Lakers).
Yeah all of their “trade assets” are garbage. The idea of Schroeder getting $20M is sickening. If anybody is willing to sign and trade for him good luck, but I don’t see it. Magic was dissing him and everything. Never seen anything from Kuzma. When AD went down all these guys got exposed as B- level role players. MYbe they try and go get a Buddy Hield or somebody since he should be a bench piece going forward with the rise of Halliburton. Maybe even some vets who get bought out. ThTs their only hope.
Ah yes, a team with a top 5 player and top 10 player in the sport is “truly screwed”.
lakers most likely get weaker next year. They need to hope they can do a sign and trade with Schroder. Caruso might get over paid and if he does he is gone. THT probably comes back since they can match. harrell is more likely back than gone. So the bench weakens and everything is riding on a sign and trade and matching offers.
I have no problem with saying it’s a dicey proposition the Lakers rely on AD to stay healthy in the playoffs but the narrative they will get weaker if they stay healthy is garbage. This is turning into summer 2019 all over again with these comical ideas a team with the best star tandem in the league won’t have success. Total lunacy and Warrior homer idea.
No Arc it’s not as simple as that, Lakers are just fine but thanks for the concern
Lakers are screwed
Only 2 good players on the team, both spend a ton of time on the shelf at this point in their careers.
Clippers are even more screwed then the lakers, a hindered Kawhi or no Kawhi at all , a overworked pg13 , no young talent but one guy and role players that are declining and due for some serious regression! Both teams mortgaged their future and have no assets left ! Lakers at least got a sorta title with their gamble clippers got a conference finals banner they can hang lol
If it was doubles tennis then they would be in great shape.
They’re not just fine. The West is extremely deep and the Lakers will struggle to make the playoffs again with two highly injury prone players as the only ones they can rely on to lead the team.
Soooo…The West is going to be Deep, with No favorites, and the Lakers (by your own omission) will be a part of that playoff group……sounds about fine to me bud
You know another team that use to be “just fine” for many many years and probably didn’t get enough credit for the run they had up until last year….. The Houston Rockets …..Im sorry you feel left out Wally, but Damn, I love me some Jalen Green so not tooo sorry ; GL on the 29th, don’t screw it up
Ya true Rockets didn’t get enough credit for constantly choking in the playoffs
Let’s all take a moment to applaud the Rockets for choking in thr playoffs the past 7 years
The West is deep with intriguing teams but not quite with real contenders.
LAC and Denver will be missing a franchise player each next season. Portland is a circus. Utah is one playoff exit from being Portland.
Phoenix will be looking to prove they’re not this year’s Heat. Dallas has one of the best young players in the league … paired with one of the most overpaid.
Golden State is really the only wildcard here. We’ll see what they do. Not sure just bringing back Klay and running it back will be enough.
But the West is as wide open as it’s ever been, which helps the Lakers.
I’m not so sure. This exact roster was 21-6 and looking like the best team in the league before injuries to LBJ and AD.
If Harrell opts in and they bite the bullet on DS they can probably find cheap bet replacements for Caruso and THT and essentially the run a similar squad back.
Then just cross their fingers the Big 2 stay healthy … which regardless of off season moves will need to happen for LA to have a chance to contend.
Lakers can’t afford all market contracts. They need to trade for rookie contract
Harrell opt in
Team salary $120 million for 6 players
Projected
Schroeder $20m
Caruso $12m
Tucker $10m
Drummond $6m
Matthew $4m
Others $4m
Total $176m
Luxury tax $147 million next season
Example
Trade Kuzma to Knicks for 32nd pick
32nd pick salary less than $1 million
Kuzma is not great but worth more than that
The only way the Lakers land a big fish is through a buy out (Kemba Walker?.) they have zero draft assets available and I don’t see portland or anyone else trading a star for Kuzma and Schroeder.
Walker will not be bought out. Kuzma will need to get his trade value back up by mid season to be traded. Schroeder would be a trade and swap but more of for a player who had a down year.
I thought Pelinka did a very good job last off season in quick re-tooling. I don’t fault him for re-upping his own guys (KCP and Kuzma), and thought he did well getting DS for Green’s contract and a late 1st. But this year will be more challenging. It’s going to be hard not to lock into a multi-year group this year (something he avoided last year).
Harrell opting in will be a godsend for him if it happens. If that’s the case they can focus on taking care of DS.
When the Big 2 were healthy, the mini-core of them + DS, Montrez, and Morris seemed elite thru ~30 gms. I imagine Pelinka will try and run that back unless someone makes a Godfather S/T offer for DS (unlikely).
Fill out the remaining roster with ring chasers. Prioritize rest for LBJ/AD. And then make one last push next postseason.
I wouldn’t be shocked if LeBron steps away if he wins a ring next year. Optics are important for him and walking away on top like Mike will have appeal.
I expect most top 8 teams get weaker next two years
Clippers Kawhi ACL
Lakers tax too high
Suns – someone will steal cam Payne and cam Johnson bc Suns will be in tax land
Jazz – can’t afford Conley
Bucks are on the way to repeater tax
Heat don’t have good trade assets
76ers don’t have good trade assets
Q for Luke , or anyone w the knowledge
Why does Trez have an option set for AFTER the draft? Seems odd, as I see mostly all options are a couple days before draft giving the team at least some footing where they stand draft night to trade etc etc
A-Was it done by Trez people in advance to skirt possibly being traded next week as salary filler at time of ink?
B-Clerical error b/c of the new dates? Probably unlikely…
Or C- does this have some benefit to the LAL org I am not seeing? Im pretty sure they cant trade his 10 mill out draft night or could they and new team just has to take the risk he opts in 2 days later? I feel it’s A but am a tad confused as to the why etc etc
By default, the NBA’s player option decision deadline falls after the draft. As you allude to, a team would likely want the decision made before then, while a player would likely prefer to wait as long as possible.
In Harrell’s case, he was probably just able to negotiate the later deadline because he had the leverage to do so last offseason (coming off a Sixth Man of the Year award with bigger offers likely available). He’s not the only one who will get to wait until after the draft — Kawhi, Ibaka, Josh Richardson, and Bobby Portis fall into that category too.
Thank You ! Very clear per usual
I had thought it could be leverage By the Trez camp last year , makes perfect sense now.
you wanna free up some cap space? lebron and ad need to take a paycut since they don’t play the whole year anyway, but still get payed like they do.
Only Jokic plays the whole year… so all the stars in the league (except Jokic, ofc) need a pay cut, in that right?
I really see THT being the hidden key to IF this free agency/trade period really nets a big name player
We love homegrowns as Laker fans, always have, but the time period is just too valuable too pass up if we can get a good value/player in 2 weeks via S&T
Tht struggled 2nd half, no doubt, but who knows what a then 19 year olds path is suppose to look like, especially under the umbrella that was the 2021 LAL. I’ll always root for him but if we could pull Lowry on a 2/50 S&T with THT+ ….C ya
I like the prospects of Malik Beasley from Minny as well for Lakers .. Think Minny almost has to sell low to someone, why not us!
Beasley for who?
You can’t save any tax because Wolves tax situation
For what it’s worth I heard space jam was awful
Prob/ably ha/s a zi/llio/n qu/ick-cu/ts.
But still opened to 32 million meaning that everything LeBron touches turns to gold
But it still made 32 million which confirms that everything LeBron touches turns to gold
If THT knew how to pass, I’d say it was a no-brainer to keep him. However, his constant slash to the bucket for a wild layup attempt was both fantastic and frustrating to watch last season.