Just about everything went right for the Heat during the summer restart in the Walt Disney World bubble last summer. Having entered the playoffs as a No. 5 seed in the East, Miami won three consecutive series as the road team, then came within two wins of a championship before falling to the Lakers.
The Heat brought back a pretty similar roster in 2020/21, aiming to finish higher in the standings and make another deep playoff run. But health issues limited the team’s ability to build much momentum during the regular season, and the departures of some key role players (such as Jae Crowder) – along with underwhelming or nonexistent contributions from new additions (including Victor Oladipo) – were major factors in Miami’s lack of postseason success.
With Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo locked up for multiple seasons, the Heat have a solid All-Star duo to build around, but president of basketball operations Pat Riley may consider making significant roster changes around that duo after Miami became the only one of this year’s 16 playoff teams not to win a single game in the postseason.
The Heat’s Offseason Plan:
The Heat enter the offseason with only five players under contract: Butler, Adebayo, Tyler Herro, Precious Achiuwa, and KZ Okpala. That gives the team some flexibility to go in multiple directions.
A year ago, the Heat had the ability to create some cap room, but instead chose to re-sign several of their own free agents, operate over the cap, and use the mid-level exception to try to add a role player or two. It’s possible Miami will go that route again this summer.
The team options for Goran Dragic ($19MM+) and Andre Iguodala ($15MM) may be a little higher than the club would like, but both players could be re-signed even if their options are declined, and Miami would have the ability to bring back some combination of Oladipo, Kendrick Nunn, Duncan Robinson, Trevor Ariza, and Nemanja Bjelica too. Dewayne Dedmon could also be re-signed, though the Heat would have to use an exception to do so if he’s seeking more than the minimum, since he’ll only have Non-Bird rights.
On the other hand, if the Heat aren’t convinced that running it back again is a good play, they could let most of those free agents walk and try their luck on the open market — they’d have $20MM+ in cap room even if they retained the modest cap holds for Nunn and Robinson (they could go over the cap to re-sign those two RFAs after using their cap space).
Still, considering this year’s free agent class is somewhat underwhelming and $20MM likely wouldn’t get them a star-caliber player, I’d expect the Heat to operate over the cap and try to land an impact player on the trade market.
Exercising Dragic’s or Iguodala’s team option would give the Heat a sizeable expiring contract to use for salary-matching (they could pick up both options if needed), and while their ability to trade future first-round picks is somewhat limited, they have valuable young players – such as Herro and Achiuwa – who could be dangled as trade chips.
One potential target to keep an eye on is Kyle Lowry, who is close friends with Butler. The Heat pursued Lowry at the March trade deadline, but were reportedly unwilling to part with Herro to make a deal happen. The Heat could theoretically clear enough cap room to make him a strong offer, so if Lowry wants to team up with Butler, the Raptors’ leverage in sign-and-trade talks would decrease. That would allow Miami to negotiate more favorable trade terms and hang onto Herro, possibly for another trade down the road.
Salary Cap Situation
Note: Our salary cap projections are based on a presumed 3% increase, which would result in a $112.4MM cap for 2021/22.
Guaranteed Salary
- Jimmy Butler ($36,016,200)
- Bam Adebayo ($28,103,500) 1
- Ryan Anderson ($5,214,583) — Waived via stretch provision.
- Tyler Herro ($4,004,280)
- Precious Achiuwa ($2,711,280)
- KZ Okpala ($1,782,621)
- Total: $77,832,464
Player Options
- None
Team Options
- Goran Dragic ($19,440,000): Bird rights
- Andre Iguodala ($15,000,000): Bird rights
- Omer Yurtseven ($1,517,981): Non-Bird rights 2
- Total: $35,957,981
Non-Guaranteed Salary
- None
Restricted Free Agents
Kendrick Nunn ($4,736,102 qualifying offer / $4,736,102 cap hold): Bird rights- Duncan Robinson ($4,736,102 qualifying offer / $4,736,102 cap hold): Bird rights
- Total (cap holds): $9,472,204
Two-Way Free Agents
Draft Picks
- None
Extension-Eligible Players
- Jimmy Butler (veteran)
- KZ Okpala (veteran)
Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds
- Victor Oladipo ($31,500,000): Bird rights
- Trevor Ariza ($16,640,000): Early Bird rights
- Nemanja Bjelica ($13,585,000): Bird rights
- Dewayne Dedmon ($1,669,178): Non-Bird rights
- Udonis Haslem ($1,669,178): Bird rights
- Jordan Mickey ($1,669,178): Non-Bird rights 4
- Dwyane Wade ($1,669,178): Early Bird rights 4
- Total: $68,401,712
Offseason Cap Outlook
As noted above, the Heat could create over $20MM+ in cap room by declining all their team options and renouncing all their free agents except Nunn and Robinson. Renouncing Nunn and Robinson would get the team up to $28MM+ in cap space.
But unless there’s an extremely compelling reason to clear that space, I don’t see Miami giving up its rights to so many useful players. The bet here is that the Heat operate as an over-the-cap team and bring back a few of their own free agents.
Cap Exceptions Available
- Mid-level exception: $9,536,000 5
- Bi-annual exception: $3,732,000 5
Footnotes
- This is a projected value. Adebayo’s salary will be 25% of the 2021/22 salary cap.
- Yurtseven’s salary will remain non-guaranteed even if his option is exercised.
- Because he has been on a two-way contract with the Heat for two seasons, Vincent is eligible for a standard minimum-salary qualifying offer.
- The cap holds for Mickey and Wade remain on the Heat’s books from prior seasons because they haven’t been renounced. They can’t be used in a sign-and-trade deal.
- These are projected values. If the Heat approach or cross the tax line, they may forfeit these exceptions and instead gain access to the taxpayer mid-level exception ($5.9MM). If they decided to operate under the cap, they’d forfeit these exceptions and would gain access to the room exception ($4.9MM).
Salary and cap information from Basketball Insiders and RealGM was used in the creation of this post.
Short of Kawhi saying he’s taking his talents to Miami I’m not sure what prevents them from running this back and trying to flip Goran and Dre for something.
Lowry? Eh. What’s the window of a Lowry-Butler-Bam-Herro core? A season or two max? And even at that does anyone believe that core is an actual contender for anything?
And then there’s Butler’s age—he’s approaching his mid 30’s and his style of play doesn’t strike me as prone to longevity.
Riley keeps trying to hunt big fish but seems to keep striking out. Put Giannis on this team and they’re back in Heatles mode.
Having said that Herro’s regression really hurts them. If he could regain focus and become an All Star caliber guy things would be a lot easier for Pat.
Dragic and Iggy are vet min dudes at this point.
They may operate over the cap (probably will), but they should still decline the options on Iggy and Dragic (retaining Bird rights). Nunn and Robinson are keepers, and we’ll see what the market will bear. If Iggy or Dragic or Ariza, are resigned for keeps or for a S&T (vs using the 20 mm cap space), I see it being with new market deals, not those inflated option prices.
In the end, I don’t think the Heat have enough trade assets to greatly improve their team without an impact FA signing (and there does not appear to be one on the horizon). They need to dispense with the fossils (not talking about Riley) and see if the younger rotation guys, with Bam and Butler, can form the core of a good team that can keep improving.
Duncan Robinson is really the only must resign. But I can c them bringing back Goran at around 4-5 mill for 1 year. They must get younger and better defensively around Dragic on the second unit tho. With Herro, Butler and Bam taking a chance with Lowry or DeRozan is a possibility. They need some progression from Achiuwa and they need Herro to get back to what he showed in the bubble. But, a lot of guys didn’t have great season on the short turn around. They should stay away from Oladipo and should resign Ariza or Iggy.
They really missed Crowder. Dudes tough and is a winner. They were lacking bad in the front court next to Bam. Crowder was the perfect role player for that team. They messed that one up last offseason.
Still waiting on options and non guaranteed contracts, but obviously, besides health, and just not going cold against a team that didnt necessarily play great defense against them, and kind of lucked out on certain guys missing bread and butter looks, the Heat need to address someone that can guard the guard spot, another wing piece, which especially matters depending on Andre Iguodala and/or Trevor Ariza, another piece at the 4 that can defend, and preferably knock down shots,and if they can have some size that would be helpful, and a big that can space the floor, and hopefully give them adequate defense to replace Olynyk, especially after not using Bjelica in a matchup they needed him in, for whatever reason…
Obviously depends on what happens with their young guys, and who they potentially trade/dont keep. Curious what they do with guys like Achiuwa and Okpala, besides the obvious guards. Those guys could go in a trade, and they weren’t used for some reason in a matchup where they may have been useful, so moving them or not, those positions may be more important than they already are. I personally would still consider trading Tyler Herro, as I would have a few months ago. If o had to keep 1 of him or Nunn, I would keep Nunn, but depends on what either could get in a trade, or who else they might grab, and if they keep Dragic. I really want Dragic to end his career with the Heat, so I’ll be really sad if he goes, but it might depend on what else happens
I really hope they dont lose Duncan Robinson. He is extremely important. You can probably find a way to either spread out that shooting, or maybe develop other pieces, but I feel like he is very valuable, and I wouldn’t want to trade him for anything but specific valuable pieces. Hopefully they can offer him enough to take away the risk of someone giving him a wonky deal, outside of just money, that makes it tough to match. The Heat has Max Strus on a 2 way deal, and he is interesting to potentially fill some of that spot, but I think it’s worth keeping Duncan Robinson barring a really significant roster change. Hopefully something in the 4 year/$68 million range is doable
Not necessarily in order, but I could see a few of these guys being real options/potential targets, assuming status. Some of those guys are obviously easier to get…I personally doubt Kawhi Leonard moves, but obviously he would change a lot of the scenarios. That being said, I think the same needs would still exist, so the idea of lower cost options at those spots could be nice. I would imagine the Heat would also consider retaining flexibility, as not offering years may have cost them this year, so they could be holding out for someone worth going after to give that up. It’s been said time and time again, but going into last offseason, they needed to keep at least 1 of Crowder and Derrick Jones jr, and they lost both, and not for lack of offering money, but b/c of years, which is unfortunate b/c those guys would have been movable if necessary
Paul Millsap is still an obvious target, among others, Serge Ibaka could be nice if he leaves the Clippers. If Marc Gasol became available, he would be so perfect, but I doubt he leaves the Lakers. Chris Paul, Kyle Lowry, Josh Hart, Tony Snell, Torrey Craig, Josh Richardson, Sterling Brown, Rudy Gay, Justise Winslow, James Johnson, Solomon Hill, Frank Ntilikina, Shaq Harrison, Lonzo Ball, Isaac Bonga, Kelly Olynyk, Noah Vonleh, Bobby Portis, Harry Giles, Thon Maker, Frank Kaminsky, Moe Wagner, Dwight Howard, Jeremiah Martin, Kris Dunn
Heat only have 6 guaranteed so there are plenty of choices to make.
If Bam does not play the 4, the Heat will continue to be more boring than they were in the bubble. That means getting a 5 who can hit 3s like Olynyk, still available, or re-sign Bjellica.
Nunn $12m, Robinson $21m, let Dragic & Iguodala go, Oladipo $10m.
Kind of yzarc that the bubble was in Florida, and a Floridian team made it to the finals…meanwhile Jimmy Butler selling coffee to fools?
Yurtseven’s contact is non-guaranteed for next season (he is not a RFA).
We have him listed under team options, not RFAs. (And everything I’ve seen indicates it’s an actual option rather than just a non-guaranteed salary).
link to twitter.com
Bobby Marks and Eric Pincus both have it listed as a team option. However, it looks like it’ll still be non-guaranteed if the option is exercised.
KZ Okpala is eligible for a veteran extension???
Yeah, even though he’s still on his first contract, only players who were first-round picks are eligible for “rookie scale” extensions, so Okpala’s would technically qualify as a veteran extension.