No NBA team outperformed its preseason expectations more significantly in the 2020/21 season than the Knicks, who were projected by oddsmakers to be in the mix for the league’s worst record. Instead, New York, buoyed by a Julius Randle breakout year and the influence of new head coach Tom Thibodeau, claimed a top-four seed in the East by finishing with a 41-31 record.
The Knicks’ first-round series vs. Atlanta exposed some of the deficiencies that the team was able to mask during the regular season, and Thibodeau’s club made a quick postseason exit, losing to the Hawks in five games. But it was still a massively successful year for a franchise that hadn’t made the playoffs or even finished above .500 since 2013.
While some regression should perhaps be expected in 2021/22, the Knicks are well-positioned to avoid taking a step backward by adding reinforcements to their core group, which includes Randle and rising forward RJ Barrett. New York will have more cap space than any other NBA team and has extra first-round picks both this year and in the future, making the club a threat to be a player in free agency or on the trade market.
The Knicks are still a ways off from title contention, but for the first time in years, there are legitimate reasons to be optimistic about the team’s future.
The Knicks’ Offseason Plan:
Although the Knicks are in a good spot to add outside help to their roster, many of their most important decisions will be made on their own players.
Randle, for instance, was once considered a candidate to be waived before his full 2021/22 salary became guaranteed. That’s no longer a realistic outcome. Instead, the Knicks will have to decide whether to offer him an extension that could have a base value worth up to $106MM+ over four years (plus incentives) and Randle will have to decide whether to accept it.
If New York believes Randle’s improvements – particularly his three-point percentage – are sustainable, offering that extension certainly makes sense for the team. Of course, if Randle believes the same thing, he’d be justified in turning down such an offer in the hopes of securing a more lucrative contract as a free agent in 2022.
Randle’s future will in turn impact that of 2020 lottery pick Obi Toppin, who had an underwhelming rookie year, in large part because he wasn’t a great fit in lineups that featured Barrett and Randle. If the Knicks are committed to Randle long-term, Toppin could become a trade chip.
The Knicks also face an important decision on Mitchell Robinson, who has a non-guaranteed minimum salary for 2021/22. Typically, guaranteeing that salary and perhaps exploring a contract extension would be the obvious move for the club. But if Robinson reaches free agency in 2022, he’ll be an unrestricted free agent. If New York turns down his team option, he’d be a restricted free agent this summer, giving the team more control in locking him up going forward.
The Knicks will have to determine whether Robinson, who was limited to 31 games this season due to a right foot injury, is a crucial part of their future. If he is, they’ll have to figure out what the best approach is for making sure he’s around for the long haul.
Finally, the Knicks face decisions on several veteran free agents, including key role players like Derrick Rose, Alec Burks, Nerlens Noel, and Reggie Bullock. All of those vets could be in line for raises after strong seasons in New York, so the team will have to weigh which of its free agents are worth more substantial investments and which should be cut loose in search of a better bargain.
We haven’t even gotten yet to the upgrades the Knicks may pursue outside of the organization, but their options should be plentiful. In recent years, the organization has been unable to attract top free agents to New York due to the club’s poor play and questionable leadership. But the Knicks’ 2020/21 success and the stability that Thibodeau and president of basketball operations Leon Rose have brought to the franchise have helped boost the team’s appeal.
That doesn’t mean the Knicks will be able to go out and add Kawhi Leonard or Chris Paul, but it does mean that free agency could be a more viable path to adding an impact player than it has been in recent years. That’s especially true given New York’s financial flexibility — if the team wants to outbid rival suitors for a veteran free agent such as Kyle Lowry, Mike Conley, or Spencer Dinwiddie, it has the ability to do so.
That cap flexibility will also help grease the wheels for potential trades. For example, while I don’t view Collin Sexton as a perfect fit in New York, there are rumors that the team has been the most aggressive trade suitor for him so far. The Knicks’ financial flexibility could allow them to take on Kevin Love‘s oversized contract as part of a Sexton deal, or to comfortably negotiate a long-term extension for the high-scoring guard. Again, I’m not sure either of those moves is in New York’s best interest, but those are the kinds of possibilities that cap space helps create.
Of course, in their first year with substantial cap room available in 2020, Rose and the Knicks’ front office took a more conservative approach, prioritizing short-term, team-friendly deals for undervalued players like Burks and Noel.
It’s possible the team could go that route again if there are no favorable opportunities to take a bigger swing. But after the Knicks’ success in 2020/21, I imagine the front office will feel a little more pressure – including perhaps from Thibodeau – to add the types of players who can help the club take another step forward in ’21/22.
Salary Cap Situation
Note: Our salary cap projections are based on a presumed 3% increase, which would result in a $112.4MM cap for 2021/22.
Guaranteed Salary
RJ Barrett ($8,623,920)- Joakim Noah ($6,431,667) — Waived via stretch provision.
- Kevin Knox ($5,845,978)
- Obi Toppin ($5,105,160)
- Julius Randle ($4,000,000) — Partial guarantee. Non-guaranteed portion noted below. 1
- Immanuel Quickley ($2,210,640)
- Total: $32,217,365
Player Options
- None
Team Options
- Mitchell Robinson ($1,802,057): Bird rights 2
- Total: $1,802,057
Non-Guaranteed Salary
- Julius Randle ($17,780,000) 1
- Luca Vildoza ($3,325,000)
- Norvel Pelle ($1,701,593)
- Total: $22,806,593
Restricted Free Agents
- Frank Ntilikina ($7,031,451 qualifying offer / $18,529,734 cap hold): Bird rights
- Total (cap holds): $18,529,734
Two-Way Free Agents
Draft Picks
- No. 19 overall pick ($2,770,560)
- No. 21 overall pick ($2,553,120)
- No. 32 overall pick (no cap hold)
- No. 58 overall pick (no cap hold)
- Total: $5,323,680
Extension-Eligible Players
- Kevin Knox (rookie scale)
- Julius Randle (veteran)
- Mitchell Robinson (veteran)
Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds
- Derrick Rose ($9,987,804): Early Bird rights
- Alec Burks ($7,200,000): Non-Bird rights
- Elfrid Payton ($6,197,100): Early Bird rights
- Nerlens Noel ($6,000,000): Non-Bird rights
- Reggie Bullock ($5,460,000): Early Bird rights
- Taj Gibson ($1,669,178): Early Bird rights
- Total: $36,514,082
Offseason Cap Outlook
Locking in Randle’s salary would result in about $50MM in guaranteed salaries for five roster spots. From there, the Knicks could go a number of ways in filling out their roster.
If we assume the team picks up Robinson’s option and keeps its two first-round picks while waiving or renouncing everyone else, that’d result in nearly $52MM in cap space. Adding Rose’s cap hold would bring that cap room projection down to $42.5MM; adding Noel’s cap hold would reduce it to about $37.5MM, and so on. Trading one or both of their first-round picks could slightly increase the team’s space.
Essentially, even if the Knicks do want to try to bring back two or three of their free agents, they’ll be able to generate enough cap room for a maximum-salary contract or close to it. It’s a safe bet they’ll operate under the cap this offseason rather than over it.
Cap Exceptions Available
- Room exception: $4,910,000 3
Footnotes
- Randle’s salary becomes fully guaranteed after July 31.
- Robinson will be eligible for restricted free agency if his option is declined.
- This is a projected value.
Salary and cap information from Basketball Insiders, RealGM, and ESPN was used in the creation of this post.
Please refrain from suggesting OB1 or Kevin Knox or late 1st round picks could or rather, SHOULD, be enough for Sexton. From Knicks side, Sexton would be a great complimentary player to Randle and Barrett. However, they might be better suited going after more of a pure pg. Question is, who? They should bring Rose back if his price is reasonable.
Cameron Payne?
I like the potential of the Knicks a lot more than I did 365 days ago
Saying all that, the heavy lifting they did last year doesn’t exactly carry THAT much weight over IMO to next year .
They have to be really careful right now and perhaps even need to be OK not having as great of a 22 as 21 in the W-L record , perhaps 500…
I take this team as a model of just how hard it is coming up from the bottom…every hurdle you clear there’s going to be 2 more the next year
I know emotions will want them to run wild in free agency but they need to be really tempered and methodical here rather than trying to acquire all the pieces in one fail swoop, basically they need to be perfectly ok with another first rd exit next year. That’s hard to do after a small taste of success after soooo long, we shall see
‘Obi Toppin, who had an underwhelming rookie year, in large part because he wasn’t a great fit in lineups that featured Barrett and Randle.’
Is this really true, though? Obi struggled regardless of who he was on the floor with. I’d be interested in seeing how much time he spent on the floor with Randle and Barrett and how much he spent without them.
He played 11 minutes a night, as a rookie, regardless of who was on the floor. I don’t think you can take that small sample size and proclaim that he’s not a great fit with Randle and Barrett.
imo, Knicks should try the three of them, plus Mitchell Robinson and whoever they end up with at PG and see what happens. I think Randle and Obi have the flexibility to play either PF or SF and RJ could play SG. Maybe it wouldn’t work, but unless they trade Obi, they’ve got to try it or Obi will have been a wasted pick.
I’ve always wondered how a small lineup w Randle at the 5 would work ….I know that’s not Thibs bag so prolly a mute thought!
Moot
If Obi can up his 3% playing him with Randle and Barrett should be a workable solution. I think that injury at the beg of the season set him back and he never really recovered.
I think he’s a guy to watch next year and one of the reason I want us to stand pat w/ our youths rather than splurge on “vets”
Thibs is famous for not trusting rookies. I watched very little Knicks bball last year. Was he bad or not given an opportunity?
eh, kind of both. He didn’t get much of a chance, but he wasn’t great, either. He certainly showed flashes of being good and has great athleticism (which is why I think he could feasibly play SF, though like bholesurfer69 says, he’d need to up his three point game).
Frank going for 13 pts, 2 ast against Spain. Frank will get a chance to show up with France. It could help us in moving him. Since it don’t seem we are willing to help him.
I agree with @C&C on the landscape. In particular, the importance of an organizational acceptance (not expectation) of some regression next season. It doesn’t mean that the trend line isn’t up. But certainly there’s a part of the fanbase and media that will see it that way. They need to be ignored. Rose & Co. came in with a 4-year plan (including the drafts in 2020-2023). They should still be on it. Building on last season starts with understanding what was, and was not, accomplished. What was = team identity and culture. What wasn’t = a talent upgrade. So, building on last year, means first and foremost continuity, to the maximum extent feasible, and then a laser focus on changes that fix what is broke (not what they merely might like to upgrade). No static assumptions on changes. All additions must be evaluated, in part, on their fit with the team’s current identity and culture.
The specifics are less important, and hard to predict. Starting with Randle’s contract situation and the FO’s comfort level with it. I would be disappointed if the FO just ignores the situation and lets Randle go into the season in the same role without him being contractually controlled beyond next season. From there it’s to the draft, where as fans we can’t know what their draft day options really are (in terms of trade ups or just trades). I know this FO will pursue them all, and implement only a selected few. I would be happy if they can find a way to use their extra draft capital, along with Toppin, to acquire either higher end draft position or future draft capital. But we can’t afford to waste any assets.
In FA period, focus on upgrading the weakest links, and that means PG, specifically facilitators. You can’t run everything, or even most things, through Randle (or even Randle and another non-PG). There isn’t a slam dunk choice, but the fools gold is everywhere. They need a solid 2-way starter at PG who can be both a primary facilitator and play off the ball. All things being equal, and asks reasonable, I’d like to bring back Rose, Bullock, Burks and Noel. I don’t see much in the way of available categorical upgrades on the wings (and marginal ones are of little interest to me). There I’d settle for the returning group plus youth/depth added via the draft. If Toppin is back in the same backup situation, try to expand his role; but people need to realize this is primarily about having a capable primary facilitator at PG. If Toppin isn’t here, a true combo F (big 3, small ball 4) would fit nicely; but those are rarely available at a reasonable price. I can think of a few possibilities, but I wouldn’t add a veteran that might further reduce Toppin’s path to PT. Drafting a potential future combo F is possible in this draft (even at #21), but that wouldn’t be for the rotation to start.
Would it be crazy to trade Randle and keep OB1. Randle about to get the max. That money could be used elsewhere.
If Randle doesn’t want to do any extension (even for a year) because he wants to make a run at the 30% max next year, then NO, it’s not crazy. At least I don’t think so.
I think JR for 4/106m is a great move. But as a potential max next summer I agree I’d consider shopping him – although who knows what his value is around the league.
Not at all and the mistake would be not having this on the table. They simply cannot start getting attached to players yet.
I didn’t like the Obi pick at the time but I’ve really liked what I’ve seen on the floor.
** Fools gold was a nice drop
Only problem is, some nice Gold nuggets are probably going to float thru your stream while on lunch break , but you need to Eat sometime …..thus the paradox !
Some of those nuggets will at some point. But Rose & Co. have been different. 18 months in, and they’ve done precious little, running a team which, on paper, acquired lots of things to be done. Their major accomplishment, to date, has been not doing anything stupid. I don’t know what it says about us Knick fans, but generally (myself included), we’ve given them good grades for doing that (i.e., not doing that).
Not doing anything stupid is a consistently successful strategy in almost everything.
Regression is certainly a short-term possibility. But there’s no reason why this team couldn’t run it back and come close to replicating what it did, both in the regular season and (unfortunately) the post-season.
And I think that’s fine. I’d like to take another 82 game look at Quickley, Toppin, Barrett, and Robinson before making any drastic moves.
The good news is there’s really no one out there that’s going to be a game changer for us to get. The worst move Rose can make is handing out a long-term deal to the likes of a Lowry or Conley. I’d offer either a balloon 2 yr deal with a team option on Y2. Same for DeRozan.
Dinwiddie, Schroeder, Powell … only if the contact stays in the mid-teens annually. Bullock, Burks, Noel … I’d try and stay under 10m per or let them walk.
It’s challenging for sure, but at the same time we have cap space, play in Manhattan, and have proven (for one season at least) that we aren’t a pile a trash on fire. It will be a lot easier for this Knicks organization to build a contender in the next 3 years than any team outside of LA and Miami. It’s just about having the patience to do so.
Please do not trade Toppin.
No to Old guards that are at the end of their career. We are a young still rebuilding team. OK, So look who’s coming around to Best FA PG Dinwiddie. I wonder why ? Hmmmm yeah I know, is all that counts to me.
If Thibs manages gm 1 better Knicks go up 2-0 on Hawks. And it’s a whole different series. Shows you how close things are. The best team won no less. And it did expose our deficiencies, no doubt. It’s a lead PG and another scorer. You add those two and RJ, Randle are more effective. Add on a healthy Mitch and this is a top 4 team in East. I don’t get why you want to give up valuable assets. In a trade for a PG. When you can just sign a great fit in Dinwiddie. If we must trade for one. I rather Scary Terry cause we won’t give up as much. As far Cavs go. They should be trying to get Obi1 there. He’s a good fit with Allen and part of good young core. They have a great pick coming and moving Sexton also will get them value. I would love to have Okoro on Knicks. We can do Toppin for Okoro straight up. Stop criticizing a rookie who played 11 mins Inconsistently. And with different lineups. While trying to become a better team D and D player. It really puzzles me how we are so quick to go negative. The glass is always half full with young talent. It’s up to team to bring out the best. Or why draft him in first place. Randle is in no rush to resign. So we can get him help now. Then we can go over cap and resign our own player. Knicks are in good position to trade up. Or sign a FA. Or even make a significant trade. Sexton is not the one. Neither is an old player. Or a high profile star. Knicks are in every rumor known to mankind. Be smart and sensible. We are just coming back to prominence. There is no quick fix or rush to do anything. We can wait it all out. To me, best thing we can do is trade up. There is a future star in top 10. More important someone who can help us next yr and is part of rebuild. Thibs has been here ONE YEAR.
We will do what we need to do. Not in a NY minute.
Agree with u about Sexton not being the answer. But i dont think it is Dinwiddie either. This is a weak FA class, my favorite for NYK is Graham, good playmaker and 3 pointer. Would be a nice fit with RJ and Randle
Graham is a RFA. Why would we give up assets. Dinwiddie is a better ast guy.
Dont think CHA is so motivaded to keep him, maybe #21 would be enough. Dinwiddie is kinda inneficient, older and that injury scares me
Signing Luca tells me Quickley can be moved. Toppin and Quickley could be used to move up draft. I give them both up plus a pick. To get Kuminga.
I think they should go after CP3 at any price. If not him Conley or Lowry are a must.
If they can max out the roster this year before Randle, Mitch or RJ cost anything it means an extra 20-30 mil each year to keep the same players so doing it now means you have more to work with.
The team isn’t good enough yet but they control a nice set of assets this year between the roster, ST free agents and draft picks. If you simply add to that asset base by signing one of those PG’s & filling the only real hole in the lineup without even using a single pick you get into the overall value range of a legit playoff roster assuming you can squeeze that 20+ player pool into the right 10 man rotation.
You can’t be afraid of CP3’s age as a ready for the championship PG given the cost & risk of other options. You literally have to dismiss the possibility of winning in your mind for a year or two for it to even be a conversation.
The unpopular trade I would look into is RJ to NO. I think they’d pay at least 150% of fair value because of Zion if we don’t make it especially painful. I don’t see any direct trade matches but given their motivation and asset pool I would target them for, at the very least, discussions for 3 team deals.
I’d also target Dallas & try to get involved in their summer targeting Brunson and the removal of the 2023 protections.
I’d shoot for CP3 & one other FA, S&T’s and keeping as many picks this year as possible. I think having a great development staff means you should have 11-17 be guys with legit upside instead of just chemistry guys.