After an injury-plagued 2019/20 season in which they barely sneaked into the Western Conference playoffs, the Trail Blazers entered the ’20/21 campaign with loftier goals. Portland added Robert Covington and Derrick Jones on the wing and was counting on the frontcourt duo of Jusuf Nurkic and Zach Collins to get healthy and help complement the team’s star backcourt duo of Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum.
However, injuries continued to be a problem for Nurkic, who missed half the season, and for Collins, who missed the entire year. And while Covington meshed well with the current core, Jones didn’t have the impact the Blazers had hoped for, falling out of the rotation in the second half.
President of basketball operations Neil Olshey added some midseason reinforcements by acquiring Norman Powell from Toronto, but it wasn’t enough to make a serious playoff run. Portland was eliminated from the postseason in the first round by a shorthanded Nuggets squad, spelling the end of Terry Stotts‘ tenure as the club’s head coach.
The offseason has gotten off to a shaky start in Portland. There are questions about whether Lillard’s loyalty to the franchise might start wavering after what he called the most frustrating season of his career, and the Blazers came under fire for hiring Chauncey Billups as their new head coach in light of the sexual assault allegations he faced in 1997.
The Blazers said they investigated the incident and came away confident that Billups hadn’t engaged in any wrongdoing, but their caginess and lack of transparency left many fans with a bad taste. Olshey and Billups may have some work to do to ensure that both Lillard and those fans feel comfortable moving forward with the franchise.
The Trail Blazers’ Offseason Plan:
The Blazers will be capped out even before attempting to re-sign Powell, all but eliminating free agency as a viable path for pursuing roster upgrades. The team also doesn’t have either of its 2021 draft picks, having traded away its first-rounder last year for Covington and its second-rounder two years ago for Rodney Hood.
That leaves the trade market as Olshey’s best bet for reshaping the roster.
Lillard is, of course, Portland’s best trade chip, but the team won’t move the All-NBA point guard unless he expresses a desire to leave. Lillard has long been loyal to the Blazers and still has four years left on his contract, so I wouldn’t expect him to force his way out this summer — it’s not impossible, but I imagine he’ll want to at least see what Billups brings to the team before making any major decisions.
If Lillard is off the table, that leaves McCollum and Nurkic as two potential major trade chips for the Blazers. Olshey has long insisted he doesn’t want to break up Portland’s high-scoring backcourt duo, but trading McCollum for an impact forward or big man would certainly help balance the roster. It’s unclear how high McCollum’s value will be on the trade market though, since he has $100MM left on his contract and will be entering his age-30 season.
Nurkic, meanwhile, has played solid two-way basketball in the middle in the past, but leg injuries have limited his effectiveness. The veteran center also dropped hints at the end of the season that he didn’t necessarily envision a long-term future for himself in Portland. While his value isn’t as high as it would’ve been two years ago, his $12MM expiring salary would certainly be movable. He’d even have positive value if he’s back to full health.
No other players on the Blazers’ roster should be untouchable, though Covington is on a team-friendly deal and the club may still be high on young players like Anfernee Simons and Nassir Little, despite their up-and-down development.
In free agency, re-signing Powell should be a priority, especially if the Blazers make a trade involving McCollum. Portland gave up a productive and controllable rotation player in Gary Trent Jr. to acquire Powell and won’t want to lose him for nothing.
Collins once looked like a long-term keeper, but he has undergone three surgeries on his foot in the last year. It’s possible he’ll be back, but it would have to be at a bargain rate. Portland may not even tender him a qualifying offer.
Role players like Carmelo Anthony and Enes Kanter will also be free agents and seem to enjoy playing for the Blazers. If Lillard remains in Portland, I wouldn’t be surprised to see them stick around too.
Salary Cap Situation
Note: Our salary cap projections are based on a presumed 3% increase, which would result in a $112.4MM cap for 2021/22.
Guaranteed Salary
- Damian Lillard ($39,344,970) 1
- CJ McCollum ($30,864,198)
- Robert Covington ($12,975,471)
- Jusuf Nurkic ($4,000,000) — Partial guarantee. Non-guaranteed portion noted below. 2
- Anfernee Simons ($3,938,818)
- Andrew Nicholson ($2,844,429) — Waived via stretch provision.
- Nassir Little ($2,316,240)
- CJ Elleby ($1,517,981)
- Total: $97,802,107
Player Options
Norman Powell ($11,615,328): Bird rights 3- Derrick Jones ($9,720,900): Bird rights 4
- Total: $21,336,228
Team Options
- None
Non-Guaranteed Salary
- Jusuf Nurkic ($8,000,000) 2
- Total: $1,824,003
Restricted Free Agents
- Zach Collins ($7,031,451 qualifying offer / $16,218,765 cap hold): Bird rights
- Total (cap holds): $16,218,765
Two-Way Free Agents
Draft Picks
- None
Extension-Eligible Players
- Anfernee Simons (rookie scale)
- Robert Covington (veteran)
- Jusuf Nurkic (veteran)
Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds
- Enes Kanter ($6,506,955): Early Bird rights
- Caleb Swanigan ($3,665,787): Bird rights 6
- Carmelo Anthony ($1,669,178): Early Bird rights
- Harry Giles ($1,669,178): Non-Bird rights
- Rondae Hollis-Jefferson ($1,669,178): Non-Bird rights
- Total: $15,180,276
Offseason Cap Outlook
It’s a safe bet that the Blazers will guarantee Nurkic’s salary for 2021/22, and Jones seems likely to opt in. Those moves would bring Portland’s total guaranteed commitments to about $115.5MM for eight players, pushing team salary over the cap. If they re-sign Powell, the Blazers may find themselves in luxury tax territory again next season.
For now, we’re assuming Portland will have its full mid-level exception and bi-annual exception available, but that could change if team salary creeps into the $130-135MM range (or higher).
Cap Exceptions Available
- Mid-level exception: $9,536,000 7
- Bi-annual exception: $3,732,000 7
- Trade exception: $1,737,145
- Trade exception: $1,663,861
- Trade exception: $661,655
Footnotes
- This is a projected value. Lillard’s salary will be 35% of the 2021/22 salary cap.
- Nurkic’s salary becomes fully guaranteed after August 3.
- Powell’s decision is reportedly due by July 22.
- Jones’ decision is reportedly due by July 28.
- Because he’ll have four years of NBA service, Leaf is ineligible to sign another two-way contract.
- The cap hold for Swanigan remains on the Trail Blazers’ books from a prior season because he hasn’t been renounced. He can’t be used in a sign-and-trade deal. The Blazers also can’t offer Swanigan a starting salary worth more than his cap hold, since his rookie scale team option for 2020/21 was declined.
- These are projected values. If the Trail Blazers approach or cross the tax line, they may forfeit these exceptions and instead gain access to the taxpayer mid-level exception ($5.9MM).
Salary and cap information from Basketball Insiders, RealGM, and ESPN was used in the creation of this post.
Time to trade Dame and start over. That or try and trade McCullough and get him some help, but I don’t see who they could get to make them good enough to challenge in the West. The rest of their players are just role-players. Nurkic is good but has been a shell for the last 2 years
Adding players like Cam Payne and Cam Johnson, Blazers are better than Suns.
Trying to be “this year’s Suns” will be a mistake at least a few teams will make this summer, I’m guessing.
Highly likely next season will see some iteration of LeBron, Kawhi, Durant, Embiid, Jokic, or Giannis in control again.
Dame “overrated” Lillard will never win a championship. He doesn’t play the kind of basketball that can coexist with other superstars or lead a weaker team to the chip. Similar to a guy like Zach Lavine, or Karl Anthony Towns, he plays a brand of basketball that fits as being the best player on a bad to decent team. I’d rather have Killa portis or Frank the tank on a championship team.
It’s wasn’t that long ago he led the Blazers to the WCF. We don’t if he play with another superstar because he’s never had a teammate that is a superstar.
“Similar to a guy like Zach Lavine”… And with that, everyone stopping reading your hot take.
Towns is a better example, or IT, but Lavine works too… or even Mccollum… a player that does what he wants making others adjust, reducing the contribution of others.
An extreme view, but, Lillard does ensure his team will be playing heroball, not always best. Lillard might say he had to, or like Harden, was told to.
This “hero ball” moniker is an interesting concept, but I’m not sure it holds much water. I am assuming it’s being used as a pejorative term, so forgive me if it’s meant sincerely. Westbrook lead the league in assists by a wide margin. Harden was 8th and Lillard 7th. Perhaps by “hero ball” folks mean something positive. Hmmm? On an assists per game average Curry ranked 25th. Is he a “hero ball” guy?
I also found the Lavine-bashing extreme, but as a Cavs fan I probably have a better opinion of heroball than most. There’s just no other good term for what we see a lot of in these playoffs, and trending more popular, esp with the Bucks. JVG has pointed out what is going on but has no term for it. I believe the Cavs/LJames started it to no credit.
Curry first used the term that I know of, to make light of yearly finals opponent Cavs and LJ, for practicing heroball; GSW did not, and won 3 of 4, so maybe that set the pejorative trend. It does favor strong man v man offense. If the Cavs had won the 2018 series, maybe the term heroball gets more regular use.
As a scheme, I suppose it gets put under the PnR umbrella, though hard picks are not necessary and it is not a direct scoring move. It is less of a gunning style, than a system, where the first thing an offense does is secure the right matchups using usually slipscreens, and enabling usually the ballhandler to go man v man favorably against a weak link. The Suns have been starting the screens before the ball crosses halfcourt; LJ might wait to the end of the 24 second timer. Depending on the prectitioner, it could lead to assists, or it could lead to bullying and attitudes like, You can’t stop this, or, All day long.
Most teams cannot put five good defenders on the floor. The Lakers last year made a point of it… even off the bench… they had no soft spots and they rolled. They were heroball-proof… LJ-tested!
Maybe teams have been setting up mismatches before starting the offense for a long time, but I did not notice previously, until LJ’s delays, which usually gets the drama queen label. I think he daydreams like many 3s do that don’t play the 2. If you’re a coach and have two midsize guys, the one who drifts off on occasion plays the 3. (Khris Middleton nowadays. You wouldn’t play Mikal at guard unless you want to shake him up! Booker is always ‘on’.)
I’m actually a bulls fan so I watch Lavine a lot. I think he’s a good player just don’t think a team can win running the game through him. And the problem is his play style is to be ball dominant. He’s also a below average defender
Below average defender..?? Lol.. he is horible defender.im bulls fans too.i dont hate zach.but he is.i love if bulls trade him for jaylen brown.
I have to object to the Lavine bashing here, from a bunch of people who maybe see him in 3 games per year. I used to think the same thing, and I was right 2 years ago. Lavine has expanded his game and even has started to make a strong effort on defense. The games where the Bulls looked good this year were games in which Lavine recognized that he could be the “decoy” on offense, draw double coverage, leaving someone open. Bulls need some better shooters to pass the ball to, and Vucevic is a start. If they snare a good pass/defense pg before next season, watch out.
I’m not saying Zach is as good as him, but both of them play hero ball. I think if dame went to a team with other stars he’d be better off turning into a spot up shooter. Oh wait he’s a “volume shooter”
It troubles me the low IQ of today’s fans.
41 minutes, 34pts/10 assts/4 rebounds while shooting 44%/45%/94% in the playoffs vs Denver. Yeah….Dame was the problem. Guys like that need to go.
Stats don’t mean everything. As a former friend and lover of dame I know
Stats without context mean nothing. Dame did his job. To say he’s the reason why they’re not winning is completely absurd. His numbers were slightly less than Jokic but not by much. He IS the Blazers. They need another impact player to play ALONGSIDE Dame and CJ. Preferably a wing like Kawhi.
They need a 3&D guy and for Jokic to play a full season.
Lillard and a future first for Kaminski.
hahahahahahahahahahaha
How about Kaminski and a can of soup for the rights to Arvid Kramer?
Ironic that Olshey’s best season as a “GM” ends up exposing his near decade of feebleness as the team’s architect. Other than the overdue structural move of trading CJM, he did all the right things the past year. RoCo and DJ, as well as Powell, were all moves that gave the team he constructed the best chance to win. It didn’t help on the court, but it did help isolate and display a fall guy for his tenure to date (who better than the HC, whether he was his handpicked guy or not). He then follows up with the “safe” choice as HC (his star wanted the guy, or at least they were able to get it reported that way).
In sum, Olshey appears to have accomplished the first imperative (again). Is he capable of anything more?
The ceiling for the Blazers is competing for a top four seed in the playoffs. That isn’t all bad, plenty of teams would take that. But it’s costing them a lot of money to be there.
In a vacuum they’re better off than most teams but it seems like there’s a fatigue with this core. Reminds of the CP3 Clips. Yeah, they’re very good. But not quite elite. And they’ve run out of ammo to upgrade.
Powell’s stats slumped a little in Portland, but he had to play the 3 and he is not very big or physical even for a 2G. Of course his stats slipped. But he should get offered way more than $11m. I was predicting $20m/yr when he was with Toronto. How can Blazers afford that?— he will cost them luxury money.
I don’t think Nurkic or Simons has staying power (much less Collins), or Jones is very good, or Mccollum can be traded. Mccollum should not even be there and Little needs a team that can develop him away from a playoff race.
It’s an Olshey-fied mess. Melo has the stable situation in comparison.
Yup I could see a team offering Powell that cash. And Portland really has to keep him—unless they’re trading Dame—because they have no way of replacing him, and he’s arguably their 3rd best player.
If there was a postseason this team should have made a run it was this one. If they could have taken care of business against a Murray-less Denver they would have drawn the Suns with CP3 still a little
banged up. Then a Kawhi-less Clippers.
Hard to imagine this team having a better chance at making a run in the next few seasons.
Ms Allen should have cleaned house with letting Olshey go. No draft picks zero free agent money and the only real trade chips are RoCo and CJ. Rodney Hood for a first round pick? Yikes! RoCo was their best player so I don’t see them trading him. Just more of the same. 47 wins and a first round exit
If Dame actually wants to stay, I’d do whatever to bring back Norm, and also hang on to Simons and Little for the bench.
From there, I like the idea of a CJ for Smart based trade… but would they have enough left over to buy low on Sexton as 6th man?
I don’t know what they do down low. Little probably isn’t ready for big minutes yet, and while Covington and Nurkic don’t look like the answer, idk how much they have left to upgrade if they /could/ land Smart and Sexton.
Ben Simmons would be cool, but I think the Sixers hang on to him unless they can get a Dame or a Beal..
I think the answer on Sexton is definitely no. I’m not even sure Boston would be interested in CJM for Smart, although it’s intriguing.
This roster just has too much wrong with it to fix in one summer. You can’t have Kanter and Melo and Dame and CJ in your rotation, defensively—not unless you have Gobert in the middle.
But according to Olshey the roster wasn’t the problem, so no worries I guess /s
If I were the GM…I would not trade Dame. Honestly, it’s going to be extremely hard to re-draft a player of his quality with the picks they would get back from a contender.
If you traded CJ though, what would you be looking to fix? The defense – but not at the expense of all scoring. Lakers would fit the bill:
Blazers: CJ (30.8M)
Lakers: KCP, Montrezel (if he opts in), and Marc Gasol (25.39M), and a 1st.
Separate trade: THT S&T for Derrick Jones (not sure how much THT is going to get).
Trade would balance out the Blazers offense and defense.
Lillard – Simons
Powell – KCP
THT/Roco
Melo/Montrezel – Little
Nurkic – Gasol
Is it the best return they can get for CJ? Idk. Jimmy Butler would be an upgrade because of his defense, but he isn’t available.
They could target Danny Green in FA. His recent comments about Sixers fans, he might want to relocate. But he is a fringe starter.
They could S&T Powell. Memphis, NYK, Dallas, Philly, Miami, Toronto, Pelicans all would be interested. S&T doesn’t make sense for all for all of them tho.
Those trades are creative and I agree it improves them in some meaningful ways.
The only issue is it leaves them with a 2nd best player of Norm Powell, so I’m not sure it changes their net outcome considerably.
If it was the Gasol from 3 years ago it might be the answer, but I think he may be about done now.
Gasol would just be to match salaries honestly. He’s a 10mpg guy at best. Harrell would probably be the small ball C. We don’t know Chauncey’s coaching style yet so.
Lakers didn’t acquire Kyle Lowry at the deadline because they didn’t want to include THT in that trade so I doubt they would trade him for DJ when they clearly what to hang on to him. Also, I believe he’s a restricted FA which I’m pretty sure means he can’t be included in a S&T.
The S&T can happen and it has to be a separate transaction that works salary wise bc THT is really a piece for CJ.
I know Thibs likes Powell. And Knicks have scouted him. I like him too. But I believe PG is more important. And it’s gotta be first move we make. Powell is a solid 2way player. Still getting better. His shot and scoring have improved immensely. Imo Blazers would do better. By resigning him and trading CJ. It’s how they get most value for team. And keep Dame happy. Someone maybe even Knicks will offer him good money. Blazers can’t lose him for nothing.
Portland is at the point in Monopoly where they’re mortgaging properties to just stay in the game.