Over the last two weeks, we’ve been examining projections for all 30 NBA teams for the 2021/22 season, publishing polls asking how many games each club will win. With the help of lines from professional oddsmakers, we’ve had you vote on whether each team will go over or under a given win total, from the Nets (55.5) all the way through to the Magic (22.5).
Here are the full results of those votes:
Eastern Conference
- Brooklyn Nets (55.5 wins): Over (63.2%)
- Philadelphia 76ers (51.5 wins): Under (70.0%)
- Boston Celtics (46.5 wins): Over (58.1%)
- New York Knicks (42.5 wins): Over (65.1%)
- Toronto Raptors (36.5 wins): Under (50.6%)
- Milwaukee Bucks (54.5 wins): Over (63.7%)
- Indiana Pacers (42.5 wins): Under (58.2%)
- Chicago Bulls (42.5 wins): Over (68.3%)
- Cleveland Cavaliers (26.5 wins): Under (50.5%)
- Detroit Pistons (25.5 wins): Under (52.6%)
- Miami Heat (48.5 wins): Under (53.6%)
- Atlanta Hawks (47.5 wins): Over (62.2%)
- Charlotte Hornets (38.5 wins): Over (54.5%)
- Washington Wizards (34.5 wins): Over (54.9%)
- Orlando Magic (22.5 wins): Under (53.8%)
Western Conference
- Utah Jazz (52.5 wins): Over (61.7%)
- Denver Nuggets (48.5 wins): Over (69.3%)
- Portland Trail Blazers (44.5 wins): Over (53.0%)
- Minnesota Timberwolves (34.5 wins): Under (57.1%)
- Oklahoma City Thunder (23.5 wins): Under (65.0%)
- Los Angeles Lakers (52.5 wins): Over (58.2%)
- Phoenix Suns (51.5 wins): Over (58.6%)
- Golden State Warriors (48.5 wins): Over (50.3%)
- Los Angeles Clippers (43.5 wins): Over (51.2%)
- Sacramento Kings (36.5 wins): Under (66.0%)
- Dallas Mavericks (48.5 wins): Over (55.3%)
- Memphis Grizzlies (41.5 wins): Over (50.5%)
- New Orleans Pelicans (39.5 wins): Under (64.6%)
- San Antonio Spurs (29.5 wins): Over (53.8%)
- Houston Rockets (26.5 wins): Under (71.0%)
As these results show, our voters are slightly more bullish on the Western Conference teams than those in the East, relative to their expectations. A total of 10 Western teams were voted “over” their projected win totals, compared to eight Eastern teams.
These results also expect that our voters see a fairly wide gap between the good teams and the bad teams heading into the season. Of the 18 teams with win projections above .500, 15 were voted “over.” Meanwhile, nine of the 12 clubs with win projections below .500 were voted “under.”
These were the five “over” bets that received the largest vote shares:
- Denver Nuggets, 48.5 wins: 69.3%
- Chicago Bulls, 42.5 wins: 68.3%
- New York Knicks, 42.5 wins: 65.1%
- Milwaukee Bucks, 54.5 wins: 63.7%
- Brooklyn Nets, 55.5 wins: 63.2%
I have to admit some of these choices surprised me a little. The Nuggets will be without Jamal Murray (ACL tear) for most or all of the season; we still don’t know how the pieces in Chicago will fit together; and the Bucks and Nets may not push their stars especially hard during the regular season, preferring to focus on being healthy for the playoffs. I’ll be curious to see how these results play out.
Here are the five “under” bets that received the largest vote shares:
- Houston Rockets, 26.5 wins: 71.0%
- Philadelphia 76ers, 51.5 wins: 70.0%
- Sacramento Kings, 36.5 wins: 66.0%
- Oklahoma City Thunder, 23.5 wins: 65.0%
- New Orleans Pelicans, 39.5 wins: 64.6%
The Sixers pick here makes sense, given the ongoing Ben Simmons drama. I can’t quibble with the Rockets and Thunder bets either — the NBA’s bottom-feeders often finish with even worse records than expected, so if you think Houston and Oklahoma City will be in that group, taking the under is reasonable. On the other hand, I’m slightly more bullish on the Kings and Pelicans, but given how much New Orleans’ success relies on Zion Williamson‘s health, I’d admittedly be pretty nervous to bet on the over for the Pels.
What do you think of our picks in general? Are there any results above that you strongly disagree with? Did you make any over or under votes within the last couple weeks that you’re second-guessing now? Jump into our comment section below and weigh in with your thoughts!
18 “overs” and 12 “unders”
Does not compute.
We’re an optimistic bunch. The beginning of the season does that. By February I’ll be ready to burn my hat.
I’ll take the under on Houston. I just don’t see enough talent to justify 25+ wins. I know GWP is going to say something about it, but they aren’t talented enough to warrant 26.5 wins next year. It’s going to be a dumpster fire for this franchise for a few seasons. Trading Eric Gordon should be the number one priority for this team. He could be useful to a playoff team like Philadelphia or Miami.
There is more than enough talent there to justify 25 wins, maybe not 35, but definitely 25. The dumpster fire they suffered through last season has already burned itself out. Why do so many of those here act like the Rockets are one of the worst teams in the history of the NBA when they are in fact a top-10 franchise? Only 8 teams have won more championships than Houston has, as they are one of the 11 teams with multiple championships.
This is not Minnesota or Charlotte, nor are they as hopeless as the Thunder or the Magic right now. Adding Jalen Green alone should be enough to get them to 27 wins this season. Their starting five with him plus Porter, Wood, Tate, and Theis make up a very solid group. Then they have Sengun, KJ Martin, House, and Eric Gordon (possibly Josh Christopher and Garuba too at some point) giving them a pretty decent bench as well. I only wonder how many of that 71% will have the integrity to admit they were wrong at the end of the season and eat some crow if/when the Rockets win 27 games.
These projections all evaporate after the first 4 or 5 serious injuries.
That’s exactly what happened last season with the Rockets when they had six players who missed at least 30 games apiece, not even counting Sterling Brown who missed 21. Wood missed 31, Wall missed 32, House missed 36, Nwaba missed 41, Gordon missed 45, and even though Exum never played for them last season he also missed 62 games. A big reason they went 17-55.
Uh no, they also lost a former MVP candidate as well who is regarded as the best offensive threat this generation has seen. But nice try blaming the injuries to Sterling Brown, House, Nwaba and others for 17-55 season.
You cannot replace MVP’s no matter how many picks or bums you get back in return.
Ask Milwaukee when they traded Kareem to LA how that turned out.
Two words: Jalen Green. He’ll make fans forget about
JH.
Harden had 8 years to win a title here, he only came close once.
Way to put down Harden who used to be your hero. Robohouston you know you make people root against HOU so why bother with your mission?
Thats the old GreenWood. He’s better now. He really doesn’t disparage James Harden in any way above. Just stating he didn’t win a championship. That’s pretty tame. But you’re right about that two months ago and before…
Like Luke/HR I mostly disagree with the group opinions. Nuggets, Bulls, Bucks & Nets will disappoint, and the Nix may not get more playoff success.
The unders look fairly solid and have or will be putting much effort into salvaging their problems, if only on-court (PHL). OKC like ORL have too much to overcome, mentality-wise, as rebuilders.
Well damn. I just made a large bet on the Suns going under 51.5 wins and now i see that a majority of users think they will somehow go over.
My thinking is that the Pacific will be tougher with the Lakers and Warriors both expected to be better. Personally i think Blazers, Nuggets and Jazz all finish ahead of Suns or at the very least, close enough to the Suns to bring their win total down to 44-47 wins
63% have the bucks going at least 55-17 huh? Thats a really big number
And this is coming from someone who threw a couple hundred on them to win it all with over a month left in the season last year