The 2021/22 NBA regular season is officially over, but the draft order for June 23 has not yet been set.
A handful of factors, including the play-in results, random tiebreakers, and – of course – the lottery results themselves will ultimately determine what the 60 picks in the 2021 NBA draft look like. But with the season in the books, there’s plenty we do know.
Let’s dive in and check in on a few key aspects of the lottery standings and projected draft order…
Tentative lottery standings/odds
So far, only 10 of the 14 teams involved in the draft lottery are known — the four teams eliminated in the play-in tournament will join them.
With the help of data from Tankathon and our own reverse standings, here’s a tentative breakdown at what the lottery odds would look like if the play-in favorites (the No. 7 and No. 8 seeds) advance through the tournament and secure playoff spots:
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOU | 14 | 13.4 | 12.7 | 12 | 47.9 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| ORL | 14 | 13.4 | 12.7 | 12 | 27.8 | 20 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| DET | 14 | 13.4 | 12.7 | 12 | 14.8 | 26 | 7 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| OKC | 12.5 | 12.2 | 11.9 | 11.5 | 7.2 | 25.7 | 16.7 | 2.2 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| IND | 10.5 | 10.5 | 10.6 | 10.5 | 2.2 | 19.6 | 26.7 | 8.7 | 0.6 | – | – | – | – | – |
| POR | 9 | 9.2 | 9.4 | 9.6 | – | 8.6 | 29.8 | 20.6 | 3.7 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
| SAC | 7.5 | 7.8 | 8.1 | 8.5 | – | – | 19.7 | 34.1 | 12.9 | 1.3 | >0 | – | – | – |
| LAL | 6 | 6.3 | 6.7 | 7.2 | – | – | – | 34.5 | 32.1 | 6.7 | 0.4 | >0 | – | – |
| SAS* | 4.5 | 4.8 | 5.2 | 5.7 | – | – | – | – | 50.7 | 25.9 | 3 | 0.1 | >0 | – |
| WAS | 3 | 3.3 | 3.6 | 4 | – | – | – | – | – | 65.9 | 19 | 1.2 | >0 | >0 |
| NOP* | 2 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 2.8 | – | – | – | – | – | – | 77.6 | 12.6 | 0.4 | >0 |
| NYK | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 2.1 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 86.1 | 6.7 | 0.1 |
| CHA* | 0.8 | 0.9 | 1 | 1.1 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 92.9 | 3.3 |
| ATL* | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 1 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 96.6 |
(* Asterisks denote play-in teams)
Because the Hornets and Hawks finished with matching 43-39 records, random tiebreakers will be completed to determine their exact lottery positioning, assuming neither one makes the playoffs. So their lottery odds, in italics, are just tentative so far. If the Hawks were to win the random tiebreaker, the two teams would be flipped in the chart above.
The different colors in the chart above reflect that those teams could (or will) lose their picks. The Lakers‘ first-round pick will be sent to the Pelicans if it lands in the top 10 (99.6%) or the Grizzlies if it falls outside the top 10.
The Pelicans‘ own pick is top-four protected and will go to the Trail Blazers if it falls any later in the lottery (90.6%). If New Orleans makes the playoffs, their first-rounder will go to the Hornets.
The play-in factor
The teams eliminated in this week’s play-in tournament will end up in the lottery, sorted by record (worst to best), while the teams that earn playoff spots won’t pick earlier than No. 15. Here are the eight play-in teams:
- San Antonio Spurs (34-48)
- New Orleans Pelicans (36-46)
- Charlotte Hornets (43-39)
- Atlanta Hawks (43-39)
- Los Angeles Clippers (42-40)
- Cleveland Cavaliers (44-38)
- Brooklyn Nets (44-38)
- Minnesota Timberwolves (46-36)
Based on their 46-36 record, the Timberwolves could end up with a pick as low as No. 19 in the first round of the draft (depending on tiebreaker results). However, if they lose two play-in games this week and don’t make the playoffs at all, they’d hold the No. 14 spot in the lottery instead.
The Hornets and Hawks finished with matching 43-39 records, while the Cavaliers and Nets were each 44-38, so if both teams in either of those pairs are eliminated in the play-in tournament, a tiebreaker will be required to determine their spots in the lottery standings.
If, for example, Brooklyn makes the playoffs and Cleveland doesn’t, no tiebreaker would be necessary, since the Cavs would be in the lottery and the Nets wouldn’t.
The tiebreakers
Many tiebreakers will be required to determine either lottery positioning or a team’s specific draft pick. Here are all the teams that finished with identical records, creating a situation where a random tiebreaker will (or may) be required:
- Atlanta Hawks / Charlotte Hornets (43-39)
- Note: A tiebreaker would not be required if one team makes the playoffs and the other doesn’t.
- Brooklyn Nets / Cleveland Cavaliers (44-38)
- Note: A tiebreaker would not be required if one team makes the playoffs and the other doesn’t.
- Note: The Nets’ pick will be sent to the Rockets; the Cavaliers’ pick will be sent to the Pacers if it lands outside of the top 14.
- Chicago Bulls / Minnesota Timberwolves (46-36)
- Note: A tiebreaker would not be required if the Timberwolves don’t make the playoffs.
- Denver Nuggets / Toronto Raptors (48-34)
- Note: The Raptors’ pick will be sent to the Spurs.
- Boston Celtics / Milwaukee Bucks / Philadelphia 76ers (51-31)
- Note: The Celtics’ pick will be sent to the Spurs; the Sixers’ pick will be sent to the Nets (unless Brooklyn exercises its option to defer the pick until 2023).
- Miami Heat / Golden State Warriors (53-29)
These tiebreakers will be conducted by the NBA next Monday (April 18).
The traded first-round picks
Here’s a breakdown of the traded first-round picks for the 2022 NBA draft:
Picks that will change hands:
- Pelicans or Grizzlies acquiring Lakers‘ pick (unprotected).
- This pick will almost certainly end up in the top 10 (most likely at No. 8 or No. 9) and go to the Pelicans. There’s only a 0.4% chance it will land at No. 11 and No. 12 and be sent to Memphis instead.
- Thunder acquiring Clippers‘ pick (unprotected).
- If the Clippers secure a playoff spot via the play-in tournament, this pick will be either No. 15 or No. 16. If the Clippers don’t make the playoffs, it will move into the lottery.
- Rockets acquiring Nets‘ pick (unprotected).
- If the Nets secure a playoff spot via the play-in tournament, this pick will land in the 16-18 range. If the Nets don’t make the playoffs, it will move into the lottery.
- Spurs acquiring Raptors‘ pick (top-14 protected).
- This pick will land at either No. 20 or No. 21, depending on the tiebreaker results.
- Grizzlies acquiring Jazz‘s pick (top-six protected).
- This pick will be No. 22.
- Spurs acquiring Celtics‘ pick (top-four protected).
- This pick will land somewhere in the 23-25 range, depending on the tiebreaker results.
- Thunder acquiring Suns‘ pick (top-12 protected).
- This pick will be No. 30.
Picks that won’t change hands:
- Thunder acquiring Pistons‘ pick (top-16 protected).
- This pick will be between 1-7, falling in its protected range. The Pistons will instead owe the Thunder their 2023 first-round pick (top-18 protected).
- Hawks acquiring Thunder‘s pick (top-14 protected).
- This pick will be between 1-8, falling in its protected range. The Thunder will instead send their own 2024 and 2025 second-round picks to Atlanta and their obligation to the Hawks will be extinguished.
- Bulls acquiring Trail Blazers‘ pick (top-14 protected).
- This pick will be between 1-10, falling in its protected range. The Trail Blazers will instead owe the Bulls their 2023 first-round pick (top-14 protected).
- Hawks acquiring Hornets‘ pick (top-18 protected).
- Even if the Hornets earn a playoff spot via the play-in tournament, this pick will be between 15-18, falling in its protected range. The Hornets will instead owe the Hawks their 2023 first-round pick (top-16 protected).
- Rockets acquiring Heat‘s pick (unprotected swap)
- The Rockets have the ability to swap their own pick or the Nets’ pick for the Heat’s pick, but the Heat’s pick will be the lowest of the bunch (either No. 27 or No. 28, depending on the tiebreaker results), so Miami will keep it and their obligation to the Rockets will be extinguished.
Picks that might change hands:
- Trail Blazers or Hornets acquiring Pelicans‘ pick (various protections).
- If the Pelicans secure a playoff spot via the play-in tournament, their pick would be either No. 15 or No. 16 and would be sent to the Hornets. If the Pelicans miss the playoffs, they could still keep their pick if it moves into the top four in the lottery, but the odds of that wouldn’t be better than 13.9%. The Trail Blazers will receive it if it lands in the 5-14 range.
- If the Trail Blazers don’t receive this pick, the Pelicans would owe Portland the Bucks’ 2025 first-round pick.
- If the Hornets don’t receive this pick, the Pelicans will instead send their own 2022 and 2024 second-round picks to Charlotte and their obligation to the Hornets will be extinguished.
- Pacers acquiring Cavaliers‘ pick (top-14 protected).
- The Cavaliers must secure a playoff spot via the play-in tournament in order for the Pacers to receive this pick. If Cleveland makes the playoffs, the pick will land somewhere in the 16-18 range.
- Nets acquiring Sixers‘ pick (unprotected)
- This pick will land somewhere in the 23-25 range, depending on the tiebreaker results. The Nets will have the option to let the Sixers keep it and instead acquire Philadelphia’s unprotected 2023 first-round pick.
Thank you Mr. Adams. I’m saving your article. I won’t find anything more thorough. Excellent.
Man, excited for order to come out. Thunder have 3 first rounders and 2 possible lottery selections. (Go T-Wolves!)
Question here, since Rockets had a protected pick last year or it would have gone to the (I think) Nets, and this year pick by the Rockets is again protected and potentially 1 st pick overall. Would that mean next year the Nets get Rockets pick regardless of pick order? And then to miss out on previous 2 years of first round pick, would Nets get Rockets 2 years of first round picks after this draft? That trade between Harden and Nets, I believe both teams swapped picks and why I think they had Rockets pick last year if it wasn’t unprotected. Since it was protected, it would have adverted to this year. But again, Rockets are drafting no lower than 4th this year and makes it protected. See the confusion?
If memory is correct, Nets get Rockets pick again next year. I think it’s every other year until 2028. So, with these protected picks in consecutive years, throws everything off balance. It gets confusing
Basically the terms of the Harden trade call for the Rockets to get the Nets’ pick outright in even years (2022, 2024, and 2026) and to have the option of swapping their own pick with the Nets’ pick in odd years (2023, 2025, 2027).
There’s not really any “protection” in the odd years — the Rockets just keep their own pick if it’s better than Brooklyn’s pick, since there’s no point in swapping.
Yes but last year Nets was to have the first pick. It was protected with Rockets drafting 2nd. The pick would normally transfer over to the following year. But since Rockets are drafting high again, what happens to the result of “swapping picks”?
Via the Harden trade, the Nets will not pick before the Rockets (at least with their own pick before 2028). Pick swaps are only in odd years.
Luke, correct me if I’m wrong, but I believe the swaps can also occur with any picks the teams acquire via trades as well. For instance, if the Nets defer their pick from the Sixers to next year and both teams make the playoffs as expected, but the Rockets make a deal with another playoff team that finishes 2023 with a better record than the Nets or Sixers, then the Rockets could swap that pick for whichever is the better of the two picks the Nets control.
@phenomenalajs I’m not 100% sure about that. I guess we’ll find out if the Nets defer that Sixers pick, but my understanding is that the swap rights wouldn’t apply to any picks that Houston or Brooklyn acquired AFTER the Harden trade.
@PiratesFan1981 I think you have your info wrong on what was supposed to happen last year. It was the Thunder (not the Nets) that had the ability to swap their pick (or the Heat’s pick) for the Rockets’ first-rounder last year if it hadn’t been in the top four.
The Rockets had the right to swap one of their first-round picks for Brooklyn’s, but didn’t need to since the Nets’ pick was so late in the first round.
No obligations carried over as a result of the Rockets’ 2021 pick being protected from OKC’s ability to swap — the Thunder were just out of luck.
@Luke Adams thanks for correcting me on that. I couldn’t remember who had Houston’s pick last year. But you clarified that up as well in regards to this year. Thunder won’t get any other future “swaps” draft picks by the Rockets unless another trade is made. The swaps can be a bit confusing. It seems like it’s a hit or miss with swaps. But again, thank you