After two consecutive first-round playoff losses, the Trail Blazers entered the 2021/22 season hoping that a new head coach (Chauncey Billups), a new frontcourt addition (Larry Nance Jr.), and a full season of newly re-signed swingman Norman Powell would raise their ceiling.
However, after a 10-8 start, Portland lost 14 of its next 17 games, and the last of those 17 games was the final one of Damian Lillard‘s season, as he underwent surgery to address an abdominal injury that had bothered him for years.
With their playoff hopes on life support, the Blazers changed course. New general manager Joe Cronin – who replaced president of basketball operations Neil Olshey in December following an investigation into Olshey’s workplace conduct – was given the green light to overhaul the roster prior to the trade deadline. Cronin didn’t hold back, sending Powell and Robert Covington to the Clippers and Nance and CJ McCollum to New Orleans for future assets and cap flexibility.
Jusuf Nurkic (foot), Nassir Little (shoulder), and Anfernee Simons (knee) joined Lillard on the sidelines as Portland went into tank mode in the second half of the season. Following the All-Star break, the Blazers were 2-21 with an unfathomably bad -21.3 net rating, finishing with the NBA’s sixth-worst record and putting themselves in position to draft a top prospect this June.
The Trail Blazers’ Offseason Plan:
When Cronin blew up the Blazers’ roster in February, the common refrain coming out of Portland was that the team wanted to quickly retool the roster, perhaps flipping some of its newly-acquired assets before next season in an effort to get back to the playoffs. The goal wasn’t to launch a full-fledged rebuild, but to reshape the roster around players like Lillard, Little, and RFA-to-be Simons.
Avoiding a years-long tank is a noble goal, but it’s unclear whether the Blazers have the assets necessary to complete a fast turnaround. The packages they received in their deadline deals with the Clippers and Pelicans were somewhat underwhelming, especially after New Orleans made the playoffs and prevented Portland from acquiring the Pels’ 2022 first-round pick (it would’ve gone to the Blazers if it landed between Nos. 5 and 14).
The Blazers acquired Josh Hart, a solid two-way contributor, in the McCollum trade, and got Justise Winslow and Keon Johnson in their trade with the Clippers. Those players could help going forward, but they’re complementary parts, not centerpieces. The most valuable draft asset the Blazers got in their two mega-deals was Milwaukee’s top-four protected 2025 first-round pick, which will have limited trade value, given that it’s considered unlikely to be a high selection.
Theoretically, Portland has a path to significant cap room this offseason, but maximizing that space would mean shedding non-guaranteed salaries (like Hart’s), renouncing key cap holds (including Nurkic’s), and forfeiting the $20.8MM trade exception created in the McCollum deal. In other words, any move requiring cap room would force the Blazers to make some serious sacrifices, so the trade-off may not be worth it.
The Blazers’ most logical play this offseason might be to operate over the cap, re-signing Simons and Nurkic, retaining Hart, and waiving Eric Bledsoe‘s mostly non-guaranteed contract in order to create space under the tax line to take advantage of that big trade exception and/or the mid-level exception, targeting wings and strong defensive players with those exceptions.
A five-man group of Lillard, Simons, Nurkic, Hart, and Little probably isn’t a playoff-caliber starting lineup in the West, but it’s a decent starting point for the roster. With a top-10 pick, some cap exceptions, and a willingness to trade future draft assets, Portland is in position to add more talent.
Still, given how much the team is paying Lillard on his current contract and how much new deals for Simons and Nurkic could cost, there won’t be a ton of margin for error, so the Blazers are under some pressure to get this summer’s moves right.
Salary Cap Situation
Note: Our salary cap figures are based on the league’s latest projection ($122MM) for 2022/23.
Guaranteed Salary
- Damian Lillard ($42,492,492)
- Nassir Little ($4,171,548)
- Justise Winslow ($4,097,561)
- Eric Bledsoe ($3,900,000) — Partial guarantee. Rest of salary is noted in non-guaranteed section below. 1
- Andrew Nicholson ($2,844,430) — Waived via stretch provision.
- Keon Johnson ($2,681,040)
- Didi Louzada ($1,876,222)
- Greg Brown ($1,563,518)
- Trendon Watford ($1,563,518)
- Brandon Williams (two-way)
- Total: $65,190,329
Player Options
- None
Team Options
- None
Non-Guaranteed Salary
- Eric Bledsoe ($15,475,000) 1
- Josh Hart ($12,960,000) 2
- Total: $28,435,000
Restricted Free Agents
Anfernee Simons ($5,758,552 qualifying offer / $11,816,454 cap hold): Bird rights- Elijah Hughes ($2,011,516 qualifying offer / $2,011,516 cap hold): Early Bird rights
- CJ Elleby ($2,011,516 qualifying offer / $2,011,516 cap hold): Early Bird rights
- Total (cap holds): $15,839,486
Two-Way Free Agents
- Keljin Blevins ($1,811,516 qualifying offer / $1,811,516 cap hold): Early Bird rights
- Total: $1,811,516
Draft Picks
- No. 7 overall pick ($5,932,440)
- No. 36 overall pick (no cap hold)
- No. 59 overall pick (no cap hold)
- Total: $5,932,440
Extension-Eligible Players
Note: These are players who are either already eligible for an extension or will become eligible before the 2022/23 season begins.
- Eric Bledsoe (veteran)
- Damian Lillard (veteran)
- Nassir Little (rookie scale)
Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds
- Joe Ingles ($19,554,546 cap hold): Bird rights
- Jusuf Nurkic ($18,000,000 cap hold): Bird rights
- Caleb Swanigan ($3,665,787 cap hold): Bird rights 3
- Ben McLemore ($1,811,516 cap hold): Non-Bird rights
- Harry Giles ($1,811,516 cap hold): Non-Bird rights 3
- Rondae Hollis-Jefferson ($1,811,516 cap hold): Non-Bird rights 3
- T.J. Leaf ($1,616,044 cap hold): Non-Bird rights 3
- Total: $48,270,925
Offseason Cap Outlook
With just $65MM in guaranteed money on their books for next season, the Blazers could theoretically create upwards of $50MM in cap room if they renounce all their free agents and exceptions, waive-and-stretch Bledsoe, and drop Hart. However, that’s probably not a realistic outcome.
It’s a safe bet that Simons isn’t going anywhere, and Hart’s deal is pretty team-friendly. If we add Simons’ cap hold and Hart’s salary to Portland’s books, that projected cap room dips to about $27MM. And if the team intends to retain Nurkic and its $20MM+ trade exception, that cap room goes away entirely.
The Blazers will have options this offseason, but they’d need a very good, specific reason to give up key assets to go under the cap. Our working assumption is that they’ll be an over-the-cap team unless an opportunity arises that they can’t pass up.
Cap Exceptions Available
- Mid-level exception: $10,349,000 4
- Bi-annual exception: $4,050,000 4
- Trade exception: $20,864,198
- Trade exception: $6,519,792
- Trade exception: $3,261,480
Footnotes
- Bledsoe’s salary will become fully guaranteed after July 10.
- Hart’s salary will become fully guaranteed after June 25.
- The cap holds for these players remain on the Blazers’ books from prior seasons because they haven’t been renounced. They can’t be used in a sign-and-trade deal.
- These are projected values. If the Blazers decide to go under the cap and use cap room, they’ll forfeit these exceptions (and their trade exceptions) and instead gain access to the room exception ($5,329,000).
Salary and cap information from Basketball Insiders and RealGM was used in the creation of this post.
Yikes, I’m sorry but this is a bad looking situation if you are a Portland fan. tough to see this team competing for a championship anytime soon.
Team hasn’t competed for a championship in 30yrs. The future’s as bright in Portland now as it’s been since Jermaine O’Neal was riding that Pac NW pine
The team is both tank-worthy and able to sell tickets, so Cronin has gotten them somewhere, albeit not the best place.
They don’t win without Nurkic, so he can be dropped, with a small, slick, exciting team left, and players with some intrigue, and some room to get more..
There are a number of good UFA centers available. Chris Boucher, Hartenstein, Eubanks. Joe Ingles has been working out with the team already and would be a good role model.
Nurkic and Rondae would be great additions to the Bulls. Portland seems stuck as long as they keep Lillard.
I think they should waive/trade Bledsoe, let Nurk walk & definitely look to trade their top10 pick for a useful vet that can provide some immediate help… Memphis may have interest in a deal that gives them Bledsoe & a top7 pick for Brandon Clarke & DeAnthony Melton. Grizz could save millions by waiving Bledsoe & “restarting” Clarke’s rookie contract. They could use those savings to re-sign Tyus Jones &/or Kyle Anderson. Replacing 2 good role players with a potentially great young player (the top10 pick) while saving $ in the process is a gamble they would definitely have interest in.. as far as the Blazers they’d get 2 young, ultra-athletic guys that fit perfectly with Hart, Little, Watford & GBrown & should complement Dame as well as they did Ja.
that trade is only good for Memphis. why would portland give up a top ten pick for that underwhelming package?
I disagree that Melton & Clarke are underwhelming. Those boys can play. Memphis prob would been a play in team without them this season. Melton/Clarke could easily be 40% of Portland’s starting lineup or at least 25% of their rotation for the next 5+ yrs. Plus the timing of it all sorta screams trade for them.. Portland has a legend that is currently in his prime & has prob 3-5yrs to capitalize on his greatness. The next 3-5yrs should be the majority of Clarke/Melton’s prime. Their team would low-key resemble a 21st century version of the Bad Boy Pistons, especially if they bring in another big (Enes Kanter reunion?) to play the Buddha Edwards role
Clarke is about to get expensive as he only has one year on his rookie contract. you don’t give up a top ten pick for role players that are about to be eligible for new contracts when you already are over the cap. plus if you think Kanter still has a role in today’s NBA you should watch his games over the last two years and see how often his is exposed and targeted.
You’re using the term role player in a pejorative way but the fact is that Melton & Clarke are 2 of the best “role players” in the league. They’d definitely help a lot more the next few seasons than a rookie in his early 20s. Clarke is about to more expensive than he currently is but he won’t be expensive in comparison to his production or to other guys at his position. Portland can afford him & he’s exactly the type of active big they’ve needed since Oden got hurt. Portland is looking for guys that can contribute during this time they still have Dame playing at an elite level. I love Orlando Robinson & Jalen Duren but they’re (probably) not ready to contribute to a playoff contender. We know Clarke & Melton are & those guys are also still fairly young & still improving themselves.. as far as Kanter getting exposed & targeted lol ok so does Dame & Steph & Trae & Luka & Ja & countless bigs I could name that aren’t nearly as great at rebounding & scoring in the post as Kanter is. Bringing him back to be their 3rd center shouldn’t kill their team defense too much. Bringing Nurk back to be their starting center is the main mistake they should avoid if they’re gonna improve defensively
the players aren’t underwhelming your package for a top 10 pick is underwhelming
The package = those players. How can 1 be underwhelming & the other not?
Any smart owner would burn this to the ground. You’ve got an all World asset that you should have traded last year. Hopefully it’s not too late to get a ton in return for him.
Using the best creativity with smoke and mirrors And Trades falling exactly right and keeping Damian Lillard, I really can’t even see this team more than a play in candidate.
Bite the bullet, trade the Superstar and follow the other young teams blueprint. Look at Memphis, look at New Orleans.., they’re on their way up.
To succeed in the NBA you need the right two or three top 10 picks who who develop after 3 years. You can’t win in the NBA with an older Superstar and fill-ins from the free-agent Market. Do the wise thing before it’s too late.
Miami Heat & Milwaukee Bucks prove your theory very wrong. There’s many ways to win in the NBA
You’re right, Milwaukee drafted and developed two stars and traded a bunch of assets for a third to get there, which is almost what I said but the Miami Heat are quite a bit different.
I have no idea how the Heat were able to compile a winning roster like this. Trade for a couple guys, draft a big man, sign a few free agents, and strike gold with a few undrafted guys. Pretty amazing.
Kudos to the coaching staff, development team, and scouting Department. Plus I don’t think Eric Spoelstra gets enough credit. He’s kept the Heat on top for years and years.
Milwaukee didn’t draft Middleton
Khris Middleton played 27 games for the Detroit Pistons and a little bit in the G league his first year. He was definitely DEVELOPED by the Milwaukee Bucks…
Yes I see your write up above. Sounds like a good plan also.
Portland can “develop” Keon Johnson, TWatford & GBrown same way
Sankara what would you propose the Portland Trail Blazers do to win a championship in the next 5 years, if it’s not my path of trading the Superstar for multiple assets and then Drafting and developing well?
Personally I think that’s the only way unless they’re happy being also-rans and play-in game contenders.
I spelled out in my previous comment a lot of what they could do this off-season to get back to contender status asap. Trading Bledsoe & their top10 pick for something like Clarke/Melton from Memphis could be a start. Replacing Nurk with a better defensive 5 & re-signing Ingles on a 2yr deal could be beneficial as well. Something like Dame/Melton/Hart/Little/Bamba w/ Ant, Keon, Justise, Ingles, Watford, Brown, Clarke & Kanter could def get in that top6 in the West & win a series next season. They have extra future draft picks that could be attached to prospects to possibly go get am upgrade at the next trade deadline. That would be a long, athletic, talented squad leaning toward youth but def a few experienced vets sprinkled in… As far as competing for a title that wouldn’t be a real possibility until the next season but that would put them in the right direction imo
Miami has Riley
Portalnd has say it aint Joe …Big Diff
Mil had the sun (Giannis) to build around
I agree w Gary, ida traded Dame this year and started the re-build . No faith in Cronin after what I saw last trade deadline. Id be worried if I was a Por fan
Great write up
Impressed with Brandon Williams down the stretch albeit in deep dark tank mode
The TD statements of new GM never made sense back of the napkin, and this just confirms it. Their give away deals at the TD were supposedly in the name of cap space, while simultaneously speaking about re-signing Simons and Nurkic. If they do resign them, wiping out the cap space, then it should be clear they were luxury tax moves, not cap space moves. Not that unusual, even prudent, but be straight about it. Particularly since, from POR’s standpoint, the take from these deals was quite light and the structure of them sloppy.
Renounce all holds and I believe you can go over the cap resigning our own players.
So I would do the following. After these trades it will put them about$110 million. If keeping Lillard then I’m resigning Nurk and hopefully Eubanks,too.Of course hopefully talk Simons into a less than max rookie extension that he can opt out of after two or three years to save the team money right now.
Here are the two trades I do and who I pick with the picks.
What about trading the 7th to Memphis for Brooks and the 22 and 29 pick pick
Use the 22 pick to pick Walker Kessler center from Auburn that led the nation with over 4 blocks a game.
Trade Bledsoe and his partially guaranteed contact, 29,36, and 2025 pick from Milwaukee to Detroit for Grant
With 59th pick if he is still there Drew Timme from Gonzaga
Meant to say keep Josh Hart and the rest of the previous comment