The Pelicans‘ 2021/22 season began on a sour note, as the team revealed at the start of training camp that Zion Williamson was recovering from offseason foot surgery, then proceeded to get off to a 1-12 start in the regular season.
Williamson experienced multiple setbacks in his rehab process and ultimately sat out the entire season, but the Pelicans turned their year around without him. Steady production from vets like Brandon Ingram and Jonas Valanciunas, along with impressive contributions from rookies Herbert Jones and Jose Alvarado, helped New Orleans climb back into play-in contention by the trade deadline, at which point the club took a big swing and acquired CJ McCollum and Larry Nance Jr. from Portland.
Nance spent most of the rest of the season recovering from knee surgery, but McCollum thrived in New Orleans, emerging as the team’s leading scorer in the second half and helping to lead the Pelicans to the play-in tournament, where they won a pair of do-or-die contests and earned the No. 8 seed. They even gave the 64-win Suns a scare in the first round, pushing the series to six games.
Given how well they played even without the former No. 1 overall pick available, the Pelicans have reason to be bullish about their future. With Williamson on track to return next season and an excess of valuable future draft assets – including this year’s No. 8 overall pick – still available, New Orleans appears to be on the rise.
The Pelicans’ Offseason Plan:
Few teams have as little work to do on their 2022/23 roster as the Pelicans. Of the 15 players who finished the season on standard deals with New Orleans, 14 are under contract for next season. The only free agent, Tony Snell, probably isn’t part of the team’s plans going forward.
That doesn’t mean the front office can just sit back and enjoy a lengthy summer vacation, of course. The Pelicans still have a handful of big decisions to make, starting with how aggressively to pursue an offseason extension for Williamson.
No player has ever turned down a five-year, maximum-salary rookie scale extension, and Zion probably won’t become the first. But the Pelicans likely won’t feel comfortable putting that offer on the table, even if Williamson’s on-court performance warrants it. He has simply missed too much time due to injuries in his first three seasons for the team to be confident that he’ll be healthy going forward. So it’s no surprise that team ownership is reportedly reluctant to offer a fully guaranteed max deal.
The most obvious – and most frequent – comparison for Williamson is Joel Embiid, who signed a five-year, maximum-salary rookie scale extension with Philadelphia after appearing in just 31 games across his first three NBA seasons. That contract included injury protection language, giving the Sixers an exit ramp to waive Embiid and save nearly half his full guarantee if he continued to battle the types of injuries that sidelined him in his first three years.
On the surface, a similar arrangement makes sense for Williamson and the Pelicans. As long as Zion doesn’t continue to suffer major injuries, there’s no reason New Orleans would want to cut him, so he’d have a good chance to earn his full guarantee and max out his earnings. In the worst-case scenario, if his career is derailed by injuries, he could still potentially secure upwards of $80-100MM if the Pelicans are willing to guarantee half the contract.
As logical as that compromise may be, it’s a fine line to walk for the Pelicans, who have heard whispers ever since drafting Williamson in 2019 that he might not want to remain in New Orleans long-term. While Zion himself has never suggested he wants to be anywhere else, the franchise won’t want to risk alienating him by low-balling him in terms of guaranteed money.
There’s no doubt that trade speculation will begin to heat up if the Pelicans and Williamson can’t work out an agreement this summer, but the team should be prepared to exercise patience. Zion is under contract for next season and would be a restricted free agent in 2023, so New Orleans still controls this process. Unless Williamson makes a nuclear, Ben Simmons-esque trade demand, there will be plenty of time beyond this offseason for the two sides to find a resolution — and plenty of time for Zion to get back on the court and boost his trade value, if he eventually decides he wants out.
Outside of Williamson, three other Pelicans are eligible for extensions this offseason: McCollum, Nance, and Jaxson Hayes.
McCollum is under contract for two more seasons, so I wouldn’t expect the club to approach those negotiations with tremendous urgency. I’d also be a little surprised to see Hayes get a new deal — he did well as a power forward alongside Valanciunas this season, but the team will still want to see how he fits in once Williamson is back, and his legal issues complicate matters. Nance could actually be the best candidate of the three for an extension, given his track record, his versatility, and his reasonable price point.
The Pelicans also figure to explore the trade market in search of an upgrade on the wing or in the backcourt. Devonte’ Graham received a four-year commitment from New Orleans just last summer, but had an up-and-down season and saw his role change following the acquisition of McCollum and emergence of Alvarado. He’ll likely be expendable in the right deal.
Of course, the No. 8 overall pick, which the Pelicans acquired from the Lakers, will be a fascinating asset to monitor. New Orleans should be able to secure a pretty talented prospect at that spot in the lottery if the team hangs onto the pick, but it would also be a valuable trade chip to attach to Graham and/or other veterans on the trade market.
My best guess for now is that the Pelicans would rather hang onto that pick and add one more promising youngster to their core while dipping into their stash of future first-rounders for any win-now trades. But if the right player is attainable on the trade market, the front office should be willing to let the No. 8 selection go.
Salary Cap Situation
Note: Our salary cap figures are based on the league’s latest projection ($122MM) for 2022/23.
Guaranteed Salary
CJ McCollum ($33,333,333)- Brandon Ingram ($31,650,600)
- Jonas Valanciunas ($14,700,000)
- Zion Williamson ($13,534,817)
- Devonte’ Graham ($11,550,000)
- Larry Nance Jr. ($9,672,727)
- Jaxson Hayes ($6,803,012)
- Garrett Temple ($5,155,500)
- Kira Lewis ($4,004,280)
- Trey Murphy ($3,206,520)
- Willy Hernangomez ($2,443,581)
- Herbert Jones ($1,785,000)
- Naji Marshall ($1,782,621)
- Jose Alvarado ($1,100,000) — Partial guarantee. Rest of salary is noted in non-guaranteed section below.
- Total: $140,721,991
Player Options
- None
Team Options
- None
Non-Guaranteed Salary
- Jose Alvarado ($463,518)
- Total: $463,518
Restricted Free Agents
- None
Two-Way Free Agents
- Gary Clark ($1,941,833 qualifying offer / $1,941,833 cap hold): Non-Bird rights
- Jared Harper ($1,616,044 cap hold): Non-Bird rights
- Total (cap holds): $3,557,877
Draft Picks
- No. 8 overall pick ($5,434,920)
- No. 41 overall pick (no cap hold)
- No. 52 overall pick (no cap hold)
- Total: $5,434,920
Extension-Eligible Players
Note: These are players who are either already eligible for an extension or will become eligible before the 2022/23 season begins.
- Jaxson Hayes (rookie scale)
- CJ McCollum (veteran)
- Larry Nance Jr. (veteran)
- Zion Williamson (rookie scale)
Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds
- Tony Snell ($1,811,516 cap hold): Non-Bird rights
- James Nunnally ($1,616,044 cap hold): Non-Bird rights 1
- Total: $3,427,560
Offseason Cap Outlook
With about $141MM in guaranteed salary on their books for next season (assuming Alvarado returns, which is a lock), the Pelicans will be far beyond the projected $122MM cap and are starting to approach the $149MM luxury tax line.
They’ll have to keep that tax cutoff in mind when they consider possible trades and weigh how to fill their final roster spot. Simply bringing back their 14 players currently under contract and using the No. 8 pick on a 15th man would leave them with $2MM+ in breathing room below the tax line.
Cap Exceptions Available
- Taxpayer mid-level exception: $6,392,000 2
- Trade exception: $6,382,262
- Trade exception: $1,786,878
Footnotes
- The cap hold for Nunnally remain on the Pelicans’ books from a prior season because he hasn’t been renounced. He can’t be used in a sign-and-trade deal.
- This is a projected value. The Pelicans could instead have access to the full mid-level exception ($10,349,000) and bi-annual exception ($4,050,000) if they remain below the tax apron.
Salary and cap information from Basketball Insiders and RealGM was used in the creation of this post.
If I’m Zion I’m definitely not agreeing to anything less than a fully guaranteed extension. There are numerous teams that would give it to him. No reason for him to accept less, especially from a franchise like NO. If Griffin & NOP don’t wanna pay up they could get a big return for Zion in a trade. My Hawks would def be willing to give up (certified 20/10 guy) John Collins plus a couple of 1sts for him… I had NO trading Kira Lewis Jr to Charlotte for James Bouknight in the Hornets preview. Adding a talented scorer like Bouknight that could soak up knowledge from a seasoned vet like CJ could be great for the Pels & for Bouknight himself… I’d def look to extend Jaxson this summer if possible. If he tightens his 3pt shot up he could be an all-star level guy in the coming years (similar to his would be teammate Collins). Hayes could be a 6MOY candidate this season even without a huge improvement in 3pt shooting tbh… I had NO taking Johnny Davis at #8 & I think that’s what they should do if they don’t make that KLewis/Bouknight deal. JDavis would take Josh Hart’s place sorta perfectly. Tbh he’s sorta better version of Hart.. Extremely versatile 2way 2guard that should be able to contribute from day1. If they do make the trade for Bouknight then they should look at a guy like AJ Griffin or possibly trading back to grab a wing like Jeremy Sochan, Ousmane Dieng or Kendall Brown.. that would leave the Pels with something like CJ/BI/Herb/JCollins/JoVal as a strong starting 5 with Jose, Devonte, Temple, Bouknight, AJ Griffin, Naji, Nance Jr, Trey, Jaxson & Billy, definitely one of the best bench mobs in the league
I see you follow the league but the Pels should NOT extend Hayes as he has not improved at the basic things of big man play like setting screens, boxing out, rebounding, etc. He also has no self awareness that these are the things he has to work on & comes off as immature. Draft Griffin, who is a 1 trick pony, at 8 would not help the team in the playoffs as he plays no D & has injury concerns.
They would be fools to guarantee all his money. Dude has no real leverage. I might not even try to extend him until next year. NBA owners are the worst in sports when it comes to giving out bad contracts
Lol this is the type of guy that would rather see the owners keep 75-80% of revenue, give coaches/management 10% & whatever’s left to the players
You’re wrong about me and the CBA. If the owners dont have enough salary obligation on the team then they spread the money out to the players. I just hate seeing dumb owners give out bad contracts and strap their team down for years. I prefer competition
With the exception of Robert Sarver, Gayle Benson and probably a few others I can’t think of off the top of my head NBA ownership ranks at the top in terms of what ownership should be.
The NBA has diversity in leadership positions such as coaching staff and front office, they compensate their star players both young and old fairly and they take care of retired players after 3 years of service time.
The NBA has fought hard over the last 20 years to get where they are (F+*? You Donald Sterling) and they still have a ways to go but they are leading the way and set the example of what ownership should be.
Griffin is myopic, not stupid. He’s not going to suggest that the team offer Zion a fully guaranteed 5 year max a year in advance of needing to make such a decision. NOP, by drafting Zion, got 4 years of his services at fixed prices without a long term commitment, as well as the same period to decide whether to pay market from year 5 on. A team hires a TP to manage its contract rights, not forfeit them.
I believe Zion (& his “team”) lost a lot of leverage when the team traded for CJ & Larry, 2 veteran leaders, & boosted the team into the play-in/playoffs. Now he is viewed as a vital part of the team instead of the savior. For those fans that say just give him his $185M guaranteed think if he has reaccuring foot problems. They can’t insure this & it would hamper the salary cap & limit their chances of signing other players for 5 years. Got to put in those benchmarks.