Suns center Deandre Ayton was one of the only notable members of the 2018 draft class who didn’t receive a rookie scale extension last offseason, but the two sides’ inability to reach a compromise was widely viewed as more of a minor inconvenience than a harbinger of trouble.
The expectation was that if Ayton showed in 2021/22 that he was worthy of a maximum-salary investment, Phoenix would either negotiate a new deal with him as a restricted free agent or match a rival team’s offer sheet.
However, ever since the 64-wins Suns were unexpectedly dispatched by Dallas in the second round of this year’s playoffs, speculation about the possibility of Ayton’s departure has begun to heat up.
Jake Fischer of Bleacher Report wrote last month of skepticism around the league that Phoenix will be eager to match a maximum-salary offer for the former No. 1 overall pick. Fischer suggested the Suns may be reluctant to pay any center $30MM+ per year and reported that head coach Monty Williams has “griped about Ayton’s waning focus.
James L. Edwards III and John Hollinger of The Athletic are the latest to suggest a change of scenery is a viable possibility for Ayton. The two Athletic reporters said in a story today that they’ve heard Ayton is “more likely than not” to leave the Suns this summer.
With that in mind, we want to get your thoughts on Ayton’s situation, starting with whether or not he has earned a maximum-salary investment. Centers aren’t as valuable in the modern game as they used to be, but Nikola Jokic and Joel Embiid just finished first and second in MVP voting for a second straight year, and Ayton is a 23-year-old who can score (17.2 PPG), rebound (10.2 RPG), and play solid defense, even if he’s not an elite rim protector or outside shooter.
The Suns would be able to offer Ayton up to a projected $176.9MM over five years, while a rival suitor would be able to put a four-year, $131.2MM offer on the table. If Phoenix isn’t willing to give Ayton that five-year max deal, should another team be comfortable offering the four-year max?
While Hollinger expects the Suns to pursue a sign-and-trade deal if they let Ayton go, there are a small handful of teams that could realistically create the cap room necessary to offer him a $30MM+ starting salary without requiring a sign-and-trade and would be intriguing fits for the young center. The Spurs are one. The Pistons could potentially get there too.
If one of those teams pursues Ayton, should they be willing to bet on the Suns not matching an aggressive offer sheet, or should they negotiate a sign-and-trade to ensure they get their man?
In his story with Edwards, Hollinger suggests Detroit could structure a deal around Jerami Grant, while San Antonio could put together a package that includes Jakob Poeltl and Keldon Johnson. I’m skeptical the Spurs would be eager about giving up that much value to sign Ayton to a maximum-salary contract unless they’re virtually certain the Suns would match it.
Are there other teams you think would aggressively pursue Ayton in sign-and-trade scenarios? Perhaps the Hornets, who have long been searching for a solution in the middle? The Hawks and Trail Blazers were other possible suitors mentioned in Fischer’s recent report.
Head to the comment section below to let us know how you think Ayton’s free agency will play out. Will he be back in Phoenix next season? If not, will the Suns get something back for him?
I love both of the Hawks 5s, Capela & Okongwu
That being said I hope the Hawks go after Ayton aggressively. Tbh I definitely don’t think Phoenix is gonna let this kid go. They would be dumb to do so. It’s very rare to be able to acquire a guy like Ayton. If we could get him for Capela & a 1st or even Capela & 2 1sts I pull tf out that trigger. I would definitely hesitate to give up Jalen Johnson or Okongwu in any deal, including this. But tbh acquiring Ayton would be dam near as impactful as acquiring Zion. I’d def be aggressive in going after either of those guys
So Hawks give max dollars to two bigs that most of the league considers overpaid? Are the Hawks really competitive enough after getting Ayton to pull the trigger? Pretty sure Atlanta is not in the cards here.
Lol just bc you consider a guy overpaid don’t mean that’s what guys in the league think. Speak for yourself. The Hawks are very very clearly competitive with or without Ayton lol where have you been?
Very very clearly competitive? They have a year old run where they met a miracle Knicks team and Ben Simmons shaking in his Kobes. Other than that? Making it through the play in? Where have I been indeed
I could see them playing ball for OKO and Bogs; tho that’s a big ask for a S&T and Id decline if ATL
If they are trading him I assume they don’t want a 22 mill C . Capela would need to be a separate trade that they knew they could pull off if getting DA
With the way the Pelicans excelled after CJ I think it makes it way less probable Zion moves…under a cloud of franchise suspicion …maybe. but unlikely….but them finishing so well I see Zion at about a 90+% chance at being in NO next year now
Kings can do
Mitchell, Harkless, Holiday and #4 for Ayton
Kings have cap room
Suns are very much in win now mode. They were in the Finals last yr & were the best team in the league by far this season. They’d definitely be more interested in Capela than Okongwu as a replacement for Ayton. Capela & Paul already have a rich history together…. 10% chance at Zion ain’t bad lol I’ll take those odds
Sorry Sank, around the league, Collins is overpaid, at the top of his envelop, and Ayton at max is beyond that. You are the guy with an opinion not factual. But, you’re insane, so cannot tell.
Some people think Ayton is a max player because some team will offer it, even if they personally would not. That is a fraudulent evaluation of his talent.
“Some team will fall for it.” What a compliment to their process. /s
Let’s immediately kill any idea that the Suns will let him walk. They’ll be limited to the exceptions to fill any holes, including the giant one now at center. $10 million doesn’t buy you anywhere near the talent that’s leaving. So if he has to go, they’re trading for great pieces in return.
The problem with getting great pieces back is that Ayton’s big expected jump in salary falls under a rule that says only 50% counts for matching salaries, so straight up, you’d get a $15 million player in return for a max’d Ayton. If you’re going to lose any trade that badly, why would you do it?
This is all covered nicely in link to brightsideofthesun.com
Talent doesn’t go up linearly with salary. Quite the opposite sometimes. The fact that the Suns only have to take $15m back is a GOOD thing for them, and one of the reasons a sign and trade would be an excellent outcome for them (not so excellent for their trade partner). They can demand a good YOUNG player with lots of control, and save a bunch of cash in the deal, taking them firmly below the lux tax and giving them the full MLE instead of the taxpayers’ MLE (a huge benefit when filling out the roster).
Sema is correct in theory
They could take back a theoretical package now of an expiring Oubre Kai +Bouk+ picks if money is an issue . It’s difficult matching 30 mill well when your looking for some surplus value. And the full MLE was a great point he raised at well
Have to remember S&T’s typically don’t equate nearly to the value of a guy under contract and it get’s even more complicated when said player pushes to go to an exact spot
I don’t think he walks in the end but the PHX front office has been chaotic the last 2 yrs+ so I do see it possible. Should be a prime market if Ayton only cares about money and not destination. Theres also going to be a ton of C avail for parts of the mLE the next 2 yrs if they deem the position fungible, especially on a Paul/Booker team that should excite C ‘s in the market
In theory, but I haven’t yet seen a trade that both teams would actually do. What really good $15 million player are we talking about, that won’t make the Suns take a step back?
Front office seems inscrutable from the outside — we were all mad about letting Warren go for peanuts — but it was with a bigger plan in place. That trade and others cleared the way for CP3. If Ayton gets traded for lesser talent it’ll be with a similar star move in mind.
IF,IF, they were to trade they could stock the pond with some good pre-RFA’s on the upswing
Keeps the ledger rolling
**OFC – This has to coincide with many other aspects as well
1) How they view the C position
2) How tarnished is the relationship if at all (they know more than any of us
3) Their financials and how willing they are to spend (again we don’t know much
4) And yes the package (but with a good market, which I think he’ll have they should have some interesting deals to pick from) .
** My deal above was low admittedly but just an example how they can keep the salaries low and on the surplus side taking back rookie contracts. They’d prolly squeeze in PJ in a cha/Phx deal as he’s more ready made today for that roster.
Jakob Poeltl is good value at $9.4 million, though he would be a rental. Not saying a deal happens with the Spurs, but that should be something the Suns jump at rather than letting Ayton walk.
Sure, but those aren’t the only options. They’ll sign him at whatever the market dictates, and worst case, trade him later when the right player’s available.
Ayton will know if he is constantly being shopped. It’s not good human relations for a moody guy, to sign a player just for trading.
I estimate a 4/$112 offer to match or not… $28m/yr, when max is $33m/yr and more for Phoenix. They will match if no S&T, and those are not easy… Some GM will be accused of being “light-years” behind if an S&T is agreed on.
I think the Pistons make a lot of sense here. Complete the Sign and Trade deal with Phoenix (Grant for Ayton plus give two 2nd rounders to PHN) and both sides will be happy. You get a lob partner for Cade and some rim protection in DET and Grant gives the Suns a team-first Vet who can score and play D. Not too often you see deals work out where both teams come away winners but I think this one would actually be that way.
Did you say “and 2 2nd rounders? lol
Why give anything more to Pheonix than Grant? He is a RFA. If the Suns want more than that have to match the offer. No sweat off the Pistons back.
Da Bulls
Unless something’s changed since last year (and it might have), PHX will match ANY offer sheet. They were ready to offer Ayton a 4 year max deal (8% increases) last year. He didn’t want to discuss any contract other than a 5 year max. The best Ayton can do in an offer sheet is a 4 year max (5% increases).
PHX appears open to a S&T, but I wouldn’t read into that they’re willing to give him away to get something as minor as 1 year of Jeremy Grant at 20 mm, followed by him walking (because he won’t be the 1-2 option he’s been requiring) or (at best) giving them the privilege of overpaying him (30 mm plus) to even a greater degree than Ayton.
Ok well let them retain him then. I am pretty sure no team in the league is going to beg Pheonix to let them pay Ayton 25+ mill a year.
Agreed, but that’s true of almost all RFAs. No team wants to pay both the player and his original team. That’s why almost all RFAs end up back with their original team. Ayton might be the exception, but – as I’ve indicated from the start – I’ll only fully believe it when I see it.
Alot but not almost all RFA. Alot of RFAs are retained at a high rate. Most RFAs where teams are not highly inclined to resign take a moderate asset in return and move on. Look at what the Bucks got for Brogdon. I think that is very similar to the Ayton situation.
My statement wasn’t about rate, but ONLY about who pays it. Almost all high paid RFAs are retained. That’s the point.
The few exceptions don’t do anything except prove the rule. YES, in the few instances where a team has moved a high priced RFA via S&T, it’s received LESS than they likely would have if they traded him as a signed player. But that’s precisely why high priced RFAs rarely move via S&T. Teams don’t want to take LESS, even if it means reluctantly matching. They can trade him later without the discount. No buying team should enter the RFA S&T believing it’s holding any cards; it’s not.
I get you. And my point is, Aytons situation is that rarity where they have to settle for a moderate return in a S/T or retain a player they are not high on overpaying. For other teams either take what we offer or keep him. Thats all.
There are a few other decent UFA bigs like Robinson out. And Bamba who is also improving and adds a more valuable dynamic than Ayton with his blocks and 3s will come at a lower offer and probably wont be retained if Chet goes 1. The Suns and Ayton are not holding the league hostage at all. I think if Grant is on the table and Ayton expresses he wants to go. Suns jump on the S/T.
Don’t bet on it. But, we’ll see. I think he’s in PHX next year, unless a team is obsessed with acquiring him that they pay up. If they’re not high on it, they’ll trade him in-season.
Could Bulls sign and trade for him involving Vuc +
PHO made a huge mistake last summer by not maxing him, for some reason they seem to be too proud to admit their mistake & bend over backwards to keep Ayton happy, as they say this is their lost & someone else win, right?
If the coach ain’t happy with Ayton maybe is time to get rid of the coach, they are a dozen a dime, good !young centers are much more rare!
He should sign with detroit, they have the makings of something and he would make them so much more legitimate, who cares how much he gets paid, detroit has like 3 players other teams would value beyond the minimum, could make the East awesome for years
Hey, Ayton over hyped… Mo Bamba is a rim protector, can shoot the 3, CP3 will get him involved in lobs, immersed in the program.. $10m per yr / 4 yrs/ $40m
I agree. I like Bambas 3s and Blocks dynamic. And he is getting better!
Ayton is not leaving while CP3 can still play. Their window with Chris is closing. Unless they got an offer they can’t refuse. Ayton is staying till Chris retires. Then they could move him not until.
It’s Sarver, PNX management doesn’t want to pay big max money… Will sign & trade and get some value back… don’t expect him back in PNX….
It may already be closed. Paul wasn’t as good as he was last season. As for Ayton he’s just a double-double guy. They can be found easily. The Suns nearly lost to the Pelicans before losing to Dallas. Hardly an impressive run.