When Scottie Barnes was named the NBA’s Rookie of the Year for the 2021/22 season, it was the 17th time in the last 19 years that a top-six pick won the award.
The only outliers during that time were Michael Carter-Williams, who was the 11th pick in 2013 and beat out an uninspiring crop of rookies that included No. 1 pick Anthony Bennett; and Malcolm Brogdon, a 2016 second-rounder who won the award in a year in which the No. 1 pick (Ben Simmons) sat out with an injury.
Going back even further, only three other players drafted outside the top six since 1975 have earned NBA Rookie of the Year honors: Amar’e Stoudemire (No. 9) in 2003, Damon Stoudamire (No. 7) in 1996, and Mark Jackson (No. 18) in 1988.
In other words, it should come as no real surprise that the major betting favorites to win the award in 2023 are all top-six picks.
[RELATED: 2022 NBA Draft Results]
According to BetOnline.ag, Magic forward Paolo Banchero, this year’s No. 1 pick, is the current frontrunner (+250), which makes sense — Orlando is expected to finish in the lottery again this season and there aren’t many veterans on the depth chart standing in the way of Banchero earning a significant role from day one.
Thunder big man Chet Holmgren (+400) and Kings forward Keegan Murray (+400) are the next-best bets, per BetOnline. Holmgren and Murray were among the top two-way players in the 2022 draft class, which could help their respective Rookie of the Year cases. As Barnes’ win earlier this year showed, voters have become more inclined to weigh a player’s defensive contributions than they once were — it’s not just about which rookie averages the most points per game.
Rockets forward Jabari Smith (+800), Pistons guard Jaden Ivey (+800), and Pacers guard Bennedict Mathurin (+1000) round out the top six. After that group, Rockets forward Tari Eason, the No. 17 pick in the draft, has the next-best odds at +2000.
All three of Smith, Ivey, and Mathurin are in position to play major roles on rebuilding clubs, though guards like Ivey and Mathurin sometimes require some time to get their feet under them and learn how to score efficiently at the NBA level — slow starts from Cade Cunningham and Jalen Green last season cost them a chance at Rookie of the Year honors, despite strong finishes.
We want to know what you think. Which player is your early pick for Rookie of the Year in 2022/23? Are you taking a top-six selection, or is there a dark horse you believe can defy the historical odds and take home the award?
Vote in our poll below, then head to the comment section to weigh in with your two cents!
I’m sorry, but this rookie crop is not exactly inspiring to me. Maybe I am just getting too old for this stuff.
I half agree with you. It’s similar to the pre season of the 2020 class not many expected Ball Edwards and Haliburton etc to blow up and were seen as a weak draft after the 19 had Ja Zion RJ etc.
Last years draft was deep with around 6-7 possible future stars, right now I only see Banchero being a star and all other top prospect being top role players.
But again we were all wrong on the 20 draft so we could be surprised. I like Ivey a lot but paired with Cade may give him a quieter start. Chet and Smith Jr will be defensive monsters but I don’t see them lighting up the league any time soon.
Smith has the skills to light it up as he can get his shot off from anywhere. I’m just not sure with the guards the Rockets have that he’ll get that many touches, neither Porter or Green excite me as a playmaker.
I completely agree, but ignoring who’s supplying him he will have a hell of a lot less space than he’s used to and it’ll take a while to get used to it, which is why I said he’ll be a slow burner. Just like chet won’t be able to bully the paint until he develops.
And again I agree with you, KPJ isn’t a strong playmaker at all and his turnovers can be terrible, which is why I’m sceptical of him getting a good contract.
Green is a true 2 guard and will be an offensive beast but not the biggest passer. For Houston to succeed with Green, Smith and Sengun they need to get a strong playmaker, and I think Stone thought the same which is why he drafted TyTy. I keep hearing Sengun as a point centre, but no, they need a passing guard.
Very good base for a rebuild though.
Here’s a dark horse candidate, Kenny Lofton Jr., undrafted, had a nice summer league, could crack the starting lineup in Memphis.
It would take a lot of injuries but yeah he was good in summer league. I just don’t think his game translates to the NBA well. He was just bullying players in the paint, and while that may work in the summer league, at 6-7 that’s not gonna work in the big leagues. He has to change his game if he wants to succeed in the NBA.
I think Banchero wins it, with Murray second. Both players are just so smart on the court that as rookies they should dominate competition. Mathurin and Ivey look really good too, but I don’t think they’ll be good enough to pass those two guys. I don’t think Banchero and Murray will be the best long-term, I think Jabari, Chet, and Ivey will eventually catch up.
Plenty of examples of undersized power forwards having good long careers in the league. He’s not just pushing people around – his post game and footwork is excellent.
Being an undersized PF bullying people around in the paint worked out OK for Charles Barkley.
If it’s top line stats, as it usually is, it’s PB. If it’s actually about (positive) impactful performance (meaning in the WIN column), I’d go with Murray. SAC may not win a whole bunch, but at least they’re trying to win; so a jump in the standings with a rookie being a key piece isn’t out of the question.
ROY, of course, has little to do with who will be the best player in the class longer term. That’s all up to Chet.
My dark horse (drafted outside the top 10) candidate would have been Eason, had he not been picked by HOU. If it were up to me, I would preclude any award going to a player on any team that loses 55+ games.
You have to go with pick. Who is going to get major mins. Banchero will be the starting 4. He’s more advanced than all picks and has great size. Murray, Ivey will also be in running.
Don’t be surprised if Jalen Williams out of Santa Clara. It’s all about whom can make their team better the most this season when it comes to the ROY.
He is good enough to run the point right now a thing that will allow to Alexader to go out to the wing and eat players alive in the one on one matchups he will draw.
This would allow Giddey whom to me plays exactly like a young Jason Williams did for the Kings in the early 90’s to really let fly a game he has not been able to uncork so far.
Some good ole fashioned spacing is what the Thunder need most.
I will also advance that Holmgren as the only legit 3 point threat that is likely to come in at 35 percent for the season and Dieng whom is going to be a monster and we could very well have a 3 man race for ROY all from the Thunder.
The Thunder are just this close to being a legit 40 win team which would be good enough to be in the play in.
The set up I just put out is their best bet to do so and set the NBA world on