Over the last two weeks, we’ve been examining projections for all 30 NBA teams for the 2022/23 season, publishing polls asking how many games each club will win. With the help of lines from professional oddsmakers, we’ve had you vote on whether each team will go over or under a given win total, from the Celtics (55.5) all the way through to the Thunder (22.5).
Here are the full results of those votes:
Eastern Conference
Boston Celtics (55.5 wins): Under (56.1%)- Brooklyn Nets (51.5 wins): Under (64.5%)
- Philadelphia 76ers (50.5 wins): Over (76.1%)
- Toronto Raptors (46.5 wins): Over (65.7%)
- New York Knicks (40.5 wins): Under (63.0%)
- Milwaukee Bucks (52.5 wins): Over (75.5%)
- Cleveland Cavaliers (47.5 wins): Over (73.4%)
- Chicago Bulls (44.5 wins): Over (51.6%)
- Detroit Pistons (28.5 wins): Over (51.6%)
- Indiana Pacers (23.5 wins): Under (62.8%)
- Miami Heat (50.5 wins): Under (56.6%)
- Atlanta Hawks (46.5 wins): Over (53.6%)
- Charlotte Hornets (36.5 wins): Under (63.0%)
- Washington Wizards (35.5 wins): Under (50.8%)
- Orlando Magic (26.5 wins): Over (55.3%)
Western Conference
- Denver Nuggets (51.5 wins): Over (58.1%)
- Minnesota Timberwolves (49.5 wins): Over (64.7%)
- Portland Trail Blazers (40.5 wins): Under (57.0%)
- Utah Jazz (25.5 wins): Under (65.5%)
- Oklahoma City Thunder (22.5 wins): Over (54.2%)
- Golden State Warriors (53.5 wins): Over (69.2%)
- Phoenix Suns (53.5 wins): Over (60.2%)
- Los Angeles Clippers (52.5 wins): Over (58.0%)
- Los Angeles Lakers (45.5 wins): Under (66.6%)
- Sacramento Kings (34.5 wins): Over (62.0%)
- Memphis Grizzlies (49.5 wins): Over (68.7%)
- Dallas Mavericks (48.5 wins): Over (63.7%)
- New Orleans Pelicans (44.5 wins): Over (61.2%)
- Houston Rockets (24.5 wins): Under (61.8%)
- San Antonio Spurs (23.5 wins): Under (67.5%)
Our voters were most bullish on the Central and Pacific, picking the “over” for four of five teams in each of those two divisions. Conversely, they were bearish on the Atlantic and Southeast, choosing the “under” for three clubs in each of those divisions, including presumed contenders like the Celtics, Nets, and Heat.
In total, our voters went “over” for 18 teams and “under” for 12, which is a pretty standard divide. It’s only natural at this time of the year to view certain offseason roster changes in the most positive light, before we get a chance to see which ones will backfire. And with most teams fully healthy at this time of year, it’s also impossible to predict which clubs’ seasons might take an unfortunate downturn as a result of an injury or two.
These were the five “over” bets that received the largest vote shares:
Philadelphia 76ers, 50.5 wins: 76.1%- Milwaukee Bucks, 52.5 wins: 75.5%
- Cleveland Cavaliers, 47.5 wins: 73.4%
- Golden State Warriors, 53.5 wins: 69.2%
- Memphis Grizzlies, 49.5 wins: 68.7%
There are some interesting picks in this group. The enthusiasm for the Cavaliers is presumably related in large part due to the recent acquisition of Donovan Mitchell, which raises the team’s ceiling in a major way. But the Sixers, Bucks, Warriors, and Grizzlies didn’t make any additions nearly that significant this offseason — Philadelphia’s signing of P.J. Tucker is perhaps the most impactful short-term acquisition made by any of those clubs.
In the cases of Milwaukee, Golden State, and Memphis in particular, it appears our voters are counting on continuity and returning talent winning out.
Here are the five “under” bets that received the largest vote shares:
- San Antonio Spurs, 23.5 wins: 67.5%
- Los Angeles Lakers, 45.5 wins: 66.6%
- Utah Jazz, 25.5 wins: 65.5%
- Brooklyn Nets, 51.5 wins: 64.5%
- New York Knicks, 40.5 wins: 63.0%
These teams fall into two general categories — the Spurs and Jazz are rebuilding franchises that may not mind winning only 20 games this season in order to get a shot at a top prospect like Victor Wembanyama. The Lakers, Nets, and Knicks are big-market clubs whose projections may be slightly inflated by oddsmakers in order to encourage more betting action.
Most of these picks make sense to me, though I wouldn’t feel especially confident betting on the Spurs’ under. San Antonio’s roster isn’t exactly loaded with talent, but Gregg Popovich‘s teams always seem to find a way to outperform preseason expectations.
The Lakers and Nets, conversely, have enough talent to easily exceed their projected win totals, but it’ll come down to how often their stars are able to play together. Last year, LeBron James, Anthony Davis, Kevin Durant, Kyrie Irving, and Ben Simmons combined to miss more games (230) than they played (180).
Here are the five picks that were closest to 50/50:
- Washington Wizards, 35.5 wins: Under (50.8%)
- Chicago Bulls, 44.5 wins: Over (51.6%)
- Detroit Pistons, 28.5 wins: Over (51.6%)
- Atlanta Hawks, 46.5 wins: Over (53.6%)
- Oklahoma City Thunder, 22.5 wins: Over (54.2%)
The splits on these teams are logical ones. We haven’t yet seen Bradley Beal and Kristaps Porzingis play together for the Wizards. We have no idea how much Lonzo Ball will be able to play for the Bulls this season. Dejounte Murray‘s impact on the Hawks and his fit alongside Trae Young remains to be seen. And it’s unclear whether the Pistons and Thunder will once again be as bad as they were a year ago — Detroit could be ready to take a step forward, while Chet Holmgren‘s injury means Oklahoma City could be in for another long season.
What do you think of our picks in general? Are there any results above that you strongly disagree with? Did you make any over or under votes within the last couple weeks that you’re second-guessing now? Jump into our comment section below and weigh in with your thoughts!
Some math to ponder…. 1) the total of all win totals is 1256. There will be 1230 wins in the season. Does this mean anything? Perhaps more unders than overs will occur? Or it means nada. 2) The consensus is that the Eastern conference is much stronger than Western Conf. EC teams play many more games vs EC than the WC. And yet, the 3 largest Over percentages are for EC teams. Again, mean anything? 3) based on WC weakness, shouldn’t the overs in WC have the higher %s. 4) Is there a WAR stat for NBA. If so, why would DMitchell prove to bring Cleveland this high a win projection. Lastly, yes I know finally, 5) based on these 4 wastes of time previously written above, the lock bet is under 47.5 wins for Cavs. I’ll shut up now.
Good catch on the math on the total number of wins. I noticed that too — it makes sense, since “over” is a more popular pick than “under” at this time of year. As I mentioned in the story, offseason moves mostly look pretty good at this point and nobody’s injured yet, so it’s easier to be optimistic about teams’ outlooks.
Of course, it’s certainly possible that more teams go over than under, even with the inflated overall win total. If five teams go over by 1 win and a sixth goes under by 10 wins, it all evens out!
Luke, my initial thought is that there will be more unders in the East and more overs in west. I’ll predict 9 overs/6unders in West and 9unders/6overs in East. BUT that makes 15/15 for the league. Probably not likely. So let’s go 9/6 over to under in west and 7/8 over to under in East. Sorry about thinking out loud here but it’s fun to ponder. Thanks for the article and for responding Luke. Curious here Luke, are you related to Steve Adams? You 2 write similarly and about similar topics. I look forward to both of your guys’ articles.
No relation, though he does share a name with one of my family members!
thx
Bucks are the team to beat in the East. The East is loaded this yr. So it will be best playoffs in a long time. Looking forward to it. Knicks 6th seed after a Randle trade. Let’s do this.
Thx for the over/under input.