After missing the playoffs for seven straight years, the Knicks had a surprising turnaround during the 2020/21 season under new head coach Tom Thibodeau, finishing with a 41-31 record, the No. 4 seed in the East. They ultimately fell to the Hawks in the first round, but it was still a successful season, particularly given the notable contributions from Julius Randle and RJ Barrett.
Randle was an All-Star for the first time, earned a berth on the All-NBA Second Team, and was voted Most Improved Player after averaging 24.1 PPG, 10.2 RPG and 6.0 APG on .456/.411/.811 shooting (.567 true shooting percentage). Barrett improved his numbers across the board, and his .441/.401/.746 (.535 true) shooting line was very encouraging for a player who had question marks about his jump shot.
New York had the NBA’s third-ranked defense in ’20/21, and its net rating was +2.4, ninth in the league. The team’s expected win total precisely matched its actual total, per Basketball-Reference.
Unfortunately, the Knicks had a disappointing follow-up season in ’21/22, finishing with a 37-45 record, the No. 11 seed in the East. Randle fell back to earth a bit and had several strange incidents both on and off the court, posting a disappointing .411/.308/.756 (.509 true) shooting line and lacking the same effort level defensively. Similarly, although his scoring average improved, Barrett’s efficiency got worse, posting a .408/.342/.714 (.511 true) shooting line.
The team’s offensive rating was nearly identical between the two seasons (110.6 vs. 110.4, both below average), but the defense fell to 11th in the league, with a -0.1 net rating. The Knicks’ actual win total was four less than expected, but even if they had won four more games, they still would’ve likely missed the play-in tournament (Atlanta and Charlotte both finished with 43 wins).
The Knicks’ front office recognized that they needed to make some changes and have had a busy offseason, trading away the No. 11 pick (Ousmane Dieng) to the Thunder to acquire three 2023 protected first-round picks, then flipping one (the Nuggets’ lottery-protected pick) and four second-rounders to the Hornets for the draft rights to No. 13 pick Jalen Duren.
New York then packaged Duren with Kemba Walker, receiving the Bucks’ 2025 top-four protected first-rounder from the Pistons in the deal. The Knicks also made a separate trade with Detroit, a salary dump move that sent Alec Burks, Nerlens Noel, a second-rounder and $6MM in cash in exchange for a heavily-protected second-rounder.
All of those moves gave the Knicks the cap room to sign free agent guard Jalen Brunson to a four-year, $104MM deal. They also signed center Isaiah Hartenstein to a two-year, $16MM deal and re-signed center Mitchell Robinson to a four-year, $60MM contract.
Obviously, they were heavily involved in trade rumors for three-time All-Star Donovan Mitchell, who landed in Cleveland, but ultimately didn’t make the deal and I’m not going to get into that much since it’s been written about ad nauseam.
Even though the Knicks have had an active summer, former Knicks head coach and current ESPN broadcaster Jeff Van Gundy doesn’t think the team has moved the needle much with its roster moves, per Marc Berman of The New York Post.
“The Knicks have good players, but you line it up against the competition in the East, and this roster is not on the same level,” Van Gundy told Berman in a phone interview. “They could shock the world and be a playoff team, but I look at the East and I’d have to say eight to 13 is where they should be predicted. They’re not even close to a lock for the play-in. A lot has to go right.”
According to Van Gundy, the Knicks lack the top-end talent to be considered a real threat. He suggests that a turnaround and play-in berth might hinge upon a bounce-back season from Randle.
That leads us to our question of the day. Do you agree with Van Gundy’s assessment that “a lot has to go right” for the Knicks to make the play-in tournament? Head to the comments section and let us know what you think.
I agree with Van Gundy. I’m a Knicks fan but it’s hard to believe this team is anywhere close to contention.
They have way too much money tied up in Randle, Fournier and now Brunson and RJ and I don’t think any of them are a top 3 player on a championship caliber team.
Unless RJ or someone like Grimes really break out it’s hard to see the Knicks being anything other than mediocre. I still think they should have pulled the trigger on Mitchell.
The frustrating thing about this era of the Knicks is we’ve seen flashes from a lot of these young guys, RJ, IQ, and Obi in particular, but both consistency and opportunity seem to be lacking
I think you’re spot on in saying unless some of the young talent here makes leaps then this roster is going nowhere. It’s essential to give those young guys time this season, for better or worse.
Agreed. Flashes of talent are there, but they have the wrong coach for that team. Personally I think they should’ve made the deal for Mitchell, but not with RJ in it, otherwise what’s the point. The picks should be in the 20’s if what the Knicks intended to do comes true, so the picks are ‘eh.’
The Fournier signing this year is Brunson. Not a fan and think we have another overpayment on our books. $70+ million for Randle, Fournier and Brunson makes zero sense. I’d rather they just lose, collect picks, draft wisely and build organically.
Agreed that Thibs is the wrong fit here. In some ways I think the 2021 Randle fluke year did more harm than good. It does seem like the org is somewhat caught between winning now and developing young talent
Not sure why they didn’t just keep their 11th pick.
Then why they didn’t just keep Jalen Duren.
Lottery protected picks only get your marginal rentals at the trade deadline.
It was all about Jalen Brunson. The Brunson thing is just getting stupid. They had to get salary off the roster to sign him. They got Detroit to take the salary basically in exchange for Duren and a future #1 that wouldn’t impact signing Brunson.
Knicks still have more compensation to give for Jalen Brunson. The tampering charges to sign Brunson is gonna cost them draft picks.
All this for Jalen Brunson
I hope you’re wrong but it’s very suspicious that they were at the games and people reported the deal accurately, before it was even signed.
Hopefully he’s worth it. He came up big in the playoffs which was impressive. He’s also the best PG we’ve had since I don’t even know … maybe Marbury
Brunson came up big in the playoffs….but he wont ever be in the playoffs on the Knicks.
It’s not that hard to get into the playoffs and they were a 4th seed year before last with the same core. Saying they won’t ever, is dubious at best.
The Knicks confuse me. On one end they still have that same core that made the 4th seed, plus added Brunson to the core. I like Hartenstein a lot. He’s going to be useful. They must be high on Grimes too. Ainge wanted him as a building block, so the Knicks aren’t the only ones high on Grimes. I’m thinking if we can stay healthy and actually get a full season of peak Mitchell … we can make some noise.
On the other end, I can see another failure just as easily. Either way, looking forward to seeing how it plays out.
They also confused me with all those moves to acquire presumably non-lottery picks. I thought for sure they were loading up to go get a star that the Garden has been missing for so long. But nope.
I’m nervous we’re headed for the worst place to be in the NBA. Good enough to avoid drafting high, but bad enough to not be a serious contender. That’s NBA purgatory right there. If they don’t show serious improvement and can’t get a star next offseason then we should tear it all down as fast as we can.
Agree with all of this. I honestly don’t think they’re going anywhere as long as Randle is on the team, but who knows? Maybe he reverts back to how he played two years ago and they win 45 or so games. Or maybe he plays like he did last year and they win 35 games. imo, Randle is the most important player for them unless RJ really takes a step forward.
I think Randall needed a PG. Rose being out so much hurt Randall. We were starting Burks at PG the majority of the season. Randall was handling the ball way too much. Most of the time he just lowered his shoulder and used his strength to drive and get to the rim for a wild contested inside shot. Or settled for bad jumpers. He was forcing everything, and he doesn’t have the footwork, shooting touch or touch around the basket to be playing that style. With a proper PG I think he’ll rebound. It’s probably a safe bet he’s somewhere in between last year and the year before. Which is still 20/9/4 and .450/.350/.750
I’d take that in a heartbeat.
It’s going to come down to how good is Brunson, can Mitchell and Rose stay heathy and can RJ improve his efficiency. I think RJ suffered from not having a PG just like Randall. It’s really really hard to play any form of basketball without a PG, and that’s exactly what the Knicks were all doing last year. Even in streetball you need a handler and someone who can penetrate and distribute. Then we have to see how good Grimes is and how does this squad gel with the new guys. That’s intangible and we just have to see it unfold before we’ll know.
I was actually surprised they finished 11th in defense last year. That’s above avg and that was without having a Mitchell healthy and in shape for a lot of it.
So I don’t think it all falls on Randall.
They confuse you because they are owned and run by incompetent idiots, like they literally always are and have been since the 1974-75 season.
The only things I can say positive about Dolan is that he spends money, so even if misplaced … he tries. Second is that the Rangers are well run and he owns them.
He has in the past. Thanks to Davison, they resisted. Shame he’s no longer. Saddening.
Guess you forgot about the 90’s, Dave Checkets, Pat Riley, and all the years they were great and could’ve been champs if it wasn’t for MJ.
RJ Grimes Brunson are cool, Mitch and Hartenstein are also cool, Toppin and Quickley might be cool but need more than 14 minutes a game
It doesn’t seem like we really have room in the rotation for Toppin and IQ which is why I don’t understand why we didn’t give them and 4 unprotected late round picks and then dump Fournier for Mitchell. Mitchell was able to be the best player on a 1 or 2 seed for 3 years straight. Without including RJ in the deal I’d say that the core of Robinson, Brunson, RJ and Randle is every bit as good as the core Mitchell played with in Utah when they won all those games.
JVG didn’t make any assessment that the Knicks were on the outside looking in for the play-in tournament, so its impossible to answer the author’s question in the affirmative.
But, what he did actually say (#8-#13 and not a lock for the play-in) will probably prove close to accurate. I think a reasonable goal would be 42-45 wins and a play-in spot; but it’s certainly not a lock. The East doesn’t have any great team, but it figures to be tough in that part of the standings.
FWIW, I don’t think DM would have been any kind of lock to greatly improve this. Knicks can’t worry about other teams right now. They’re a better team than they were before this regime came in, and trend line is still up. All they can do is keep improving. Too late for this regime to tank. It’s not 2k, you can’t just switch it on and off.
Agreed on DM — even if they were able to retain RJ, this roster with Mitchell maybe improves to a 5-10 range from 8-13.
You actually can switch it on and off. Look at Utah if you need an example. As I stated previously, the worst thing in the NBA to do is consistently be mediocre. If you’re not winning playoff series, then you need to be in the top 5 picks to get stars to get you winning playoff series. Or you trade for stars or land them in FA. But clearly that isn’t working out for the Knicks. But you can’t win in this league without stars. Name the last team that won without a superstar ..
Um, excuse me, I was told Steph Curry, Draymond Green and Klay Thompson are not “superstars” by imbeciles online, what are you saying now?
You took those comments serious enough to remember them and quote them?
I’d never say Curry isn’t a superstar and Klay and Green def at least we’re stars if they still aren’t. Another of many examples of how what I’m saying is true. You can’t win without a star or I could even say superstar in this league. Name the last team that won without one. You can’t
Sorry Lyman, but while your analysis might have some superficial appeal to the 2k’ers, it’s laughable to anyone who understands team building in the NBA or any sport really.
YES, championship teams have stars. But they have other things as well, most of which form over multi-year periods, and none of which can even start to take hold amidst tanking. So, it’s not surprising to me (even if it is to you) that no championship team has ever been built by tanking for top picks in the manner you suggest. UTH is just preparing to be one of the next teams to try, nothing more; they’re not a model for anything until they have a trophy. Don’t hold your breadth. Only tankers with some outlier luck (in ping pong balls) ever get even pretty good.
I couldn’t disagree with you more and if you’re laughing at my analysis then I’m happy to amuse you. Some people are more easily amused than others. Celtics and Philly are legit contenders and they tanked. Most of the best players go in the top 5 picks so whether they tanked or just sucked, that’s where you get stars. Unless you play in Miami Beach or LA and then players want to come play for you and you can grab FA stars. Idk what you’re talking about. Just seems like you’re trying to troll me.
The main point is that being at the bottom and getting too 5 picks gives you a better shot at a championship than being stuck in mediocrity. Nothing is worse than being stuck as a 8-10 seed year in year out. You’ll never touch too talent is drafts that way. Almost all the big stars went early in drafts.
Where I’ll agree with you is that it’s not just drafting that star. That’s just the start. Then you have to build a good nucleus around the star. Which you’re right. Could take years. I was only saying that the Knicks can’t win without a star so if this nucleus isn’t showing vast improvements this year we should blow it up and try again. But you absolutely cannot win a title without a star, so there’s no sense in being caught up in a decade of 6-8th seed mediocrity.
Drafting doesn’t guarantee winning. Yes top 5 is where you want to be when tanking. But you got to build chemistry a team. And you have to draft the right stats to be. Not the Kyries. It’s a team gm first. Yes you need talent. But no one can guarantee stardom. There are plenty of stars that went outside top 10. Warriors are excellent example of drafting right. Stars are created. Not drafted.
I’d like the bring up the 96/97 Spurs who definitely tanked once Robinson went down and ended up getting Duncan in the draft that year
Also let’s allow the Embiid era to completely until we call anything laughable here—The Process no doubt ended up with at least one generational talent, even if he’s been surrounded with some dubious sidekicks
So to split the difference … while tanking *can* lead to success, it’s generally rare that it does. But you can say that about almost any strategy—winning rings is extremely tough. Indiana and Washington have resisted blowing things up for decades and have as many combined rings as Presti has in OKC
@b69 –
Both of SAS and PHI points are fair, at least to the degree they should be addressed, and certainly, regardless of strategy, almost all rebuilds finish short of a championship. I note the NEVER not to say it’s always and everywhere a fool’s errand to tank, I don’t believe that. But it is foolish to believe it should be embraced as a general rebuilding strategy, or suggest it has a good history. It doesn’t.
SAS were the first tankers (in the sense of being the first team that people noticed were trying to lose for the draft preference). Tanking, yes, but a one off that I would compare more to the tanking that GSW did in 2020, than the “process” tanking that Presti started with Sea-OKC and PHI perfected years later. SAS did it within a single season (after Robinson’s injury, and a subsequent losing streak) and for one season. SAS had been a playoff team with a solid culture built around Robinson, and Pop took over coaching to assure the pathologies that get unleashed with tanking were contained.
PHI is on the other end of the spectrum. No façade at all; historic losing levels for many years. Fair to wait for Embid’s career to finish? Sure. But if the premise is tanking can get you a franchise player, I’ll concede the point now. But I could make an equally valid point that a 2nd round pick can also get you a franchise player. Embid was drafted in 2014 (8 years ago), as was Jokic. Both are superstars of the first order. Neither has a Finals appearance. The cost of Jokic was a 2nd round pick. The cost for Embid was a 5 year odyssey of hapless losing, and the obliteration of any sense of team identity or culture. Where are all the other lottery and other 1st round picks they accumulated and all the other young players they were supposedly “developing” during the years of the process? Only Simmons is an NBA starter, and he was that while in High School. He regressed as a player in PHI’s anti-accountability culture; yes, even with all the playing time his heart desired. So, if Embid, 10 or so years after being drafted, winds up on a championship PHI team, people can look back on the process fondly I guess. Given the choice, I’d just as soon have used a 2nd round pick on Jokic.
We 100% agree on at least one thing: that the reputation of tanking by advanced stat / NBA podcasts or whatever we want to call the NBA pseudo intelligentsia community far exceeds its actual results. It’s often marketed as a no brainer option when, to your point, it generally nets the same results as “riding the treadmill of mediocrity” just with more volatility.
Which might explain why people who make their living TALKING about basketball are so in favor of it—regardless of its results tanking at the very least provides a dramatic arc.
But I actually don’t disagree with any of the critiques of the Hinkie era you laid out. And I’ve been very critical of Presti’s reanimation of The Process in OKC myself.
Knicks injuries and Randles fall. Is what hurt them the most last yr. Still won 37 gms. Personally I like Fournier. We didn’t use him right. That hurt too. And his salary talk is just wrong.
Duncan makes 74 mill next 4yrs. For (26 mins, 12 pts, 40% FG). Fournier had a bad yr makes 37 mill next 2 yrs with team option for third. This for (29.5 mins, 14.1 pts, 42% FG).
So please stop it with the overpaid. Knicks print money and his contract is very tradeable.
Randle has worn out his well come. He’s a drama Queen and has to go. He should go back to all star caliber play. In a smaller market, other city. NYC is not for him.
Obi1 has to start this yr. Especially with Jalen running point. RJ is ready to step up to all star status. Mitch will be the D anchor this yr. This team without Randle is a .500 team. With what we get for him. And the move we can now make. After the DM drama show. Knicks should be a playoff team.
East is better and deeper. It’s only yr three coming for this regime. There is still a lot to look forward to. Now that we can move on from Mitchell trade. There is a good trade out there for us. The young guys will be a yr better. Rose is a good trade chip we can use. McBride and Quickley are ready to move up.
Grimes looked great in SL. He’s leaner and more confident. He gets that handle right. He can start at the 2. He’s already solid on D.
Year Three is Coming …….. it’s a rebuild.
Year one – (41 – 31)
Year two – (37 – 45)
We are ahead of schedule.
Seven #1 picks thru 2025
Six 2nd rd picks thru 2025
We are coming …… Rebuild rebuild rebuild
The most sane thing said about the Knicks other than by me this whole offseason.
“We are coming….” you’ve been saying that since 1973
We were in Finals in 1999. With Patrick out.
They don’t play ball in the UK .. stick to the pelota ……
Thanks. Yep, Knicks are a playoff team.
I see many years of mediocrity ahead for the Knicks. They might make the play-in some years, but they won’t be contenders. And they won’t tank. So continual mediocrity ahead for them.
With all the picks we have ?? It’s a new day in Knick land. Rose n company truly trying to rebuild. Not easy with NYK
The need to fold the franchise and start a new one in its place. Nets too. Both are cursed beyond words.
“Success favors the optimist.” Or:
“I never met a successful pessimist.”
So said William O’Neil who started IBD & made a fortune in the stock market.
Go Celtics!
Knicks are a trash organization
Trash that’s still worth more money than any other NBA organization. Go figure
The most valuable team in USA pro sports is always owned and run by the biggest morons possible. Real weird times.
He’s owned them since he was 26. Daddy gave it to him. MSG, Knicks, Rangers.
This ain’t the UK. Gotta bring it here …
Well I think we can all agree ORL, DET, and (probably) IND will be *trying* to lose, so hopefully NY can be better than them
Then MIL, BOS, PHI, MIA, BK, TOR, CHI, CLE all have more talent on paper.
So yes I think JVG’s range is basically spot-on. My guess is they’ll be in the mix for one of the last two play-in spots
Annnnnd if thats your starting point, then that means you are just one major injury away from those “trying to lose” teams.
Annnnnnd when your argument is “just one major injury away” it’s almost always a dumb one. “One major injury” will tank almost any teams chances, save the Durant era Warriors.
Yeah, I have to agree with you.
I will say that there’s always several teams that vastly underperform general expectations (ex. 2021-22 Lakers, Knicks, Nets) and one or two teams that make a big leap (ex. 2021-22 Raptors, Cavs, Grizzlies). So I would guess that the Knicks will be better than at least one of those teams you just mentioned. I think they will probably be OK, but not much more than that. So yeah, 9 or 10 is probably where they’ll end up finishing, and if they get on a late hot streak and maybe get a little lucky, they could make the playoffs.
The Knicks are the Nets waiting to happen. An inner city trade between the two would net you the same mediocrity for the most part.
While NYC obviously needs NBA teams, I really think both franchises are cursed and need to fold, and start some entirely new teams fresh in their place.
Knicks continue to suck, to no one’s surprise. Meanwhile this Turkey vs France knockout rd EuroBasket game is absolutely great stuff. Rudy Goberts put back dunk w/ 3secs left just sent the game into OT. Evan Fournier struggling mightily in the 2nd half
Smh… 12secs left & down1, Turkey lucks up when Rudy misses both of his fts but Korkmaz dribbles the ball (& his country’s medal chances) away before they can attempta gw shot, allowing France to advance. Turkey missed Shane Larkin throughout the game but never more than that last possession. Cedi getting dunked on by the smallest guy on the French team, Luka watching gleefully from courtside (his team plays next) & Turkey’s 19-0 3rd qtr run just a few of the crazy highlights from this great game
Best player on the court by far… link to m.youtube.com
1 of the lowest points of Korkmaz’s life no doubt.. link to m.youtube.com
No one is interested in this.
^ Or this.
Talking of sanity with Knicks. This shows some. I can believe Barkley. He’s not invested in any of this.
“I’m going to give you inside information,” Barkley said, before relaying his conversation with Wesley. “I asked why didn’t you make the trade. He said, ‘Oh man. Don’t go by the media stuff. They wanted my wife, my kids, my grandkids. I was not going to give them…we wanted the deal obviously but they were just trying to rip somebody off. We had to pass on it.’”
link to nypost.com
I too believe Danny wanted more from Knicks. Cause they having success with Mitchell. Would be amplified three times over. So Danny went for it. Don’t blame him. I’m just glad we held our ground. We still have a move to make. Me, I rather settle this Randle thing first. Do not want this to drag on. Time to move on and really rebuild. Let Obi start from day one. Then Randle will cry to get out.
The Knicks are the worst run major sporting franchise in the world. The fact they have zero rings since 1973 is just disgusting. Anyone who owns the team or works in the FO should be given 5 years max to win a ring, or else move along.
Its wild the Knicks moved so much to get Brunson and getting Brunson doesnt mean anything to their record. Knicks are run by the biggest morons in pro sports, period.
You’ve made the same comment 5 times. Over and over and over and over.
It’s actually what Dolan has been doing last 20 yrs. Most don’t last the 5 yrs lol.
No chance