I realize that it’s probably too early to ask this question. We’re only a little over 40% of the way through the 2022/23 regular season, and a variety of factors — injuries, team results, etc. — could swing the MVP race in multiple directions, especially with so many strong candidates.
In the first edition of ESPN’s MVP straw poll earlier this month, Celtics forward Jayson Tatum led the field, followed by Bucks forward Giannis Antetokounmpo, Mavericks guard Luka Doncic, Warriors guard Stephen Curry and Nuggets center Nikola Jokic. A lot has changed in the two weeks since that poll was conducted, including Curry sustaining a shoulder injury.
Tatum continues to excel as the best player on the league’s best team, a true two-way force. Antetokounmpo has great numbers, though the Bucks are in a rut, having lost four straight games. Doncic has put up mind-boggling statistics the entire season, but especially recently, becoming the first player in NBA history to record a stat line of 60 points, 21 rebounds and 10 assists in the Mavs’ comeback victory over the Knicks on Tuesday, as ESPN’s Tim MacMahon writes.
Sixers center Joel Embiid has certainly climbed the rankings, mostly due to being healthy, leading the league in scoring for the second straight season while carrying Philadelphia up the Eastern Conference standings. The same can be said for Kevin Durant, who is having perhaps his finest season for the resurgent Nets, winners of 14 of their past 15 games.
In another year, stars like Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Donovan Mitchell, and Zion Williamson — all of whom are having phenomenal seasons — would garner significant attention as well. Yet in ’22/23, they are mere afterthoughts.
As John Hollinger of The Athletic noted a couple days ago, Jokic, the reigning back-to-back MVP, might have the strongest case of all, despite a strong sentiment that voter fatigue will work against him (the same thing was said last season).
The Nuggets are 22-12, tied with the Pelicans for the best record in the West. Jokic once again leads the NBA in several advanced statistics, including player efficiency rating (32.3), win shares (6.6), box plus/minus (12.2), DunksAndThrees.com‘s estimated plus/minus (8.3), and FiveThirtyEight.com‘s RAPTOR wins above replacement (9.5, with Doncic second at 7.5), among others.
The 27-year-old’s traditional numbers are just as impressive. He’s averaging 25.7 points, 10.8 rebounds, 9.4 assists and 1.5 steals on .619/.324/.806 shooting through 31 games. Those 9.4 assists per game would be an NBA record for a center, his 68.8 true shooting percentage is the best mark among high-volume scorers, and he’s somehow shooting 62% from mid-range, which tops the league.
Maybe the most staggering statistic of all is the fact that the Nuggets are plus-10.9 with the Serbian on the court and minus-13.4 when he’s off, according to NBA.com. Jokic currently leads Basketball-Reference.com‘s MVP award tracker at 45.1%, trailed by Doncic (21.7%), Embiid (9.6%), Tatum (6.3%), Antetokounmpo (4.9%) and Durant (4.5%).
That leads us to our poll: Will Jokic three-peat as MVP? Vote and then head to the comments to weigh in with your thoughts.
My MVP rankings going into 2023
1. Giannis Antetokounmpo
2. Nikola Jokic
3. Luka Doncic
4. Stephen Curry
5. Joel Embiid
6. Kevin Durant
7. Jayson Tatum
8. Ja Morant
9. Donovan Mitchell
10. Pascal Siakam
Note: Shai would be here but I took into account team success
Note 2: Devin Booker would be here but he’s set to miss a lot of the season
Note 3: Pascal doesn’t have team succes, but his stats are amazing nonetheless
I’d probably go Jokic, Tatum, Giannis in that order, followed by some combination of KD, Doncic, and Embiid.
It’s tough to know where to put Steph based on his injury, and Morant deserves to at least be in the conversation but the top 6 (and specifically the top 3) are in a completely different tier to me.
I like Doncic this year. I still believe the mavericks can make a run and finish top 2 or 3. That said, it’s hard to argue against jokic or the freak.
If Dallas has any kind of success the rest of the year, I think Doncic should get it, too. That roster aside from Doncic is putrid.
Feels like Doncic is going to end up running away with the award. Taytum is right there if Doncic falters. However, Jokic has a chance if they can’t keep up their pace, especially if the Nuggets take the first seed in the west.
1) Doncic
2) Tatum
3) Jokic
4) Durant
No. They will find a reason not to give it to him. If he wins a championship I could see him getting it next year.
Jokic is him…anyone who says he’s not the MVP simply isn’t watching. Not only is he winning a 3rd straight but he’s going to be the Finals MVP as well when the Nuggets lift the trophy this summer! #serbianbasketballgod
Curry
Mike brown coach of the year!
So far Jokic is running away with it, not even close!!!
1/ Jokic
2/ Luka
3/ AD
4/ Embiid
5/ KD
AD lol, yeah MVP on a team with a record of 14-21. Not to mention said team also has LeBron James and Russell West took two former MVPs and future first ballot hall of famers.
He’s been good, but his team sucks so how valuable is he? And he’s also missed a fair amount of games which will continue to grow.
Jokic is deserving of it, but whether he wins or not is another story.
He’s one hell of an offensive player. To get three MVP’s you have to be a two way player, an elite two way player.
If the Nets can continue the pace of winning 17 out of every 20, Durant has to be the MVP. That’ll be hard to keep up though.
Don’t think he will get it but if he does he would become the first player since Larry Bird to get it three times in a row and only the 4th person ever. That would send him straight into the top 20 ever.
However as I said don’t think he will.
For me it’s
1 Tatum 2 Giannas 3 Luka 4 Jokic 5 Curry 6 Embiid 7 KD 8 Spida 9 Zion 10 Ja
Too early for this. Contending teams will all have an mvp candidate. And Luka is looking pretty good. Too early for me, sorry.