The NBA will be using its revamped lottery system for the fifth time this year. The format, instituted in 2019, smoothed out the odds for top picks, reducing the league’s worst team’s chance of getting the No. 1 selection from 25.0% to 14.0%.
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The changes had an immediate impact in 2019, when the Pelicans and Grizzlies were tied for the seventh-best lottery odds, but jumped up to No. 1 and 2, respectively, allowing them to land Zion Williamson and Ja Morant.
In 2020, the Bulls and Hornets landed picks in the top four despite entering lottery night with the seventh- and eighth-best odds, respectively. That stroke of luck was especially meaningful in Charlotte, where the Hornets were able to land LaMelo Ball with the No. 3 pick.
The lottery results in 2021 and 2022 featured fewer surprises, though the seventh team in the lottery standings did move up to No. 4 in both years, allowing the Raptors to nab Scottie Barnes in 2021 and the Kings to select Keegan Murray in 2022.
Perhaps, after a couple relatively by-the-numbers lottery outcomes in a row, we’ll see a more significant shake-up in 2023. This year’s draft lottery will take place on Tuesday, May 16.
With the help of data from Tankathon.com – which is worth checking out for all sorts of draft-related info – the draft lottery odds for 2023 are listed in the chart below.
The numbers in the chart indicate percentages, so the Pistons‘ pick, for instance, has a 14% chance of becoming the No. 1 selection and a 47.9% chance of ending up at No. 5. If a team’s odds are listed as >0, that percentage is below 0.1%.
Here’s the full chart (if you’re on our mobile site or app and can’t see the whole thing, try turning your phone sideways):
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 14 | 13.4 | 12.7 | 12 | 47.9 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| HOU | 14 | 13.4 | 12.7 | 12 | 27.8 | 20 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| SAS | 14 | 13.4 | 12.7 | 12 | 14.8 | 26 | 7 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| CHA | 12.5 | 12.2 | 11.9 | 11.5 | 7.2 | 25.7 | 16.7 | 2.2 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| POR | 10.5 | 10.5 | 10.6 | 10.5 | 2.2 | 19.6 | 26.7 | 8.7 | 0.6 | – | – | – | – | – |
| ORL | 9 | 9.2 | 9.4 | 9.6 | – | 8.6 | 29.8 | 20.6 | 3.7 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
| IND | 6.8 | 7.1 | 7.5 | 7.9 | – | – | 19.7 | 35.6 | 12.9 | 1.4 | >0 | – | – | – |
| WSH | 6.7 | 7.0 | 7.4 | 7.8 | – | – | – | 32.9 | 31.1 | 6.6 | 0.4 | >0 | – | – |
| UTH | 4.5 | 4.8 | 5.2 | 5.7 | – | – | – | – | 50.7 | 25.9 | 3 | 0.1 | >0 | – |
| DAL | 3 | 3.3 | 3.6 | 4 | – | – | – | – | – | 65.9 | 19 | 1.2 | >0 | >0 |
| CHI | 1.8 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 2.5 | – | – | – | – | – | – | 77.6 | 13.5 | 0.4 | >0 |
| OKC | 1.7 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 2.4 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 85.2 | 6.7 | 0.1 |
| TOR | 1.0 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 1.4 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 92.9 | 3.3 |
| NOP | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.7 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 97.6 |
Notes:
- The Mavericks‘ pick will be sent to the Knicks if it lands outside the top 10.
- The Bulls‘ pick will be sent to the Magic if it lands outside the top four.
The full pre-lottery 2023 draft order can be found right here.
No way mavs keep their pick, right?
It’s fairly likely they will keep the pick. For them to lose it to the Knicks, they can’t be picked for the top 4 and one of NO, CHI, OKC, and TOR needs to be selected for a top 4 pick.
Fairly likely meaning 79.8%
No I mean Stern will punish them
The new lottery system is so dumb. How is it fair that the worst team in the league has almost 50/50 odds of having the #5 pick. Teams tank for picks in the NFL all the time and no one complains for a lottery, let alone this kind of lottery there. The old system was fine and so is tanking. It’s literally the correct thing to do as a GM/VP if you’re in a bad or stuck position.
I agree. I watched the Astros and Cubs tank and then proceed to win 3 championships in 7 years.
I strongly suggest that Mavs work out Victor Wembanyama on his vertical jump, shooting tecnique, drills, ball handing.
Luka, Irving, Wemby
My question to Mavs fans
Would you trade Irving for DLo, Vanderbilt and Beasley?
Lakers traded Westbrook for DLo, Vanderbilt and Beasley in February
As a result: Lakers trade Westbrook for Irving
What?
That’s assuming the Lakers would even want Kyrie. He didn’t do Dallas much good. The Lakers just wanted to be rid of Russ.
cha gonna get the #1 pick.