Checking In On NBA’s 2023 Lottery Standings, Projected Draft Order

The 2022/23 NBA regular season is officially over, but the draft order for June 22 has not yet been set.

A handful of factors, including the play-in results, random tiebreakers, and – of course – the lottery results themselves will ultimately determine what the 58(*) picks in the 2023 NBA draft look like. But with the season in the books, there’s plenty we do know.

(* Note: The Sixers’ second-round pick and the Nuggets’ second-round pick, which was acquired by the Bulls, are forfeited due to free agency gun-jumping violations.)

Let’s dive in and check in on a few key aspects of the lottery standings and projected draft order…

Tentative lottery standings/odds

So far, only 10 of the 14 teams involved in the draft lottery are known — the four teams eliminated in the play-in tournament will join them.

With the help of data from Tankathon, here’s a tentative breakdown at what the lottery odds would look like if the play-in favorites (the No. 7 and No. 8 seeds) advance through the tournament and secure playoff spots:

(* Asterisks denote play-in teams)

Three sets of teams finished with matching records: the Rockets and Spurs, the Wizards and Pacers, and the Thunder and Bulls. Random tiebreakers will be completed to determine their exact lottery positioning, so their lottery odds, in italics, are just tentative so far. If the Spurs were to win their tiebreaker with the Rockets, for example, the two teams would be flipped in the chart above.

Depending on which play-in teams make the playoffs, more tiebreakers could determine the last four spots of the lottery seeding, For instance, the Raptors and Hawks have identical records, as do the Timberwolves and Pelicans. If either of those pairs of teams lose in the play-in and end up in the lottery, tiebreakers will determine their exact spot in the lottery standings.

The different colors in the chart above reflect that those teams could lose their picks. The Mavericks‘ first-round pick will be sent to the Knicks if it lands outside the top 10 (20.2%), whereas Dallas would keep it if it stays in the top 10 (79.8%).

The Bulls‘ pick is top-four protected, so if Chicago misses the playoffs, then gets some lottery-night luck and moves into the top four, they’ll keep it (either 8.1% or 8.5%, depending on the tiebreaker). Otherwise, the Magic will receive it (91.5% or 91.9%).

The play-in factor

The teams eliminated in this week’s play-in tournament will end up in the lottery, sorted by record (worst to best), while the teams that earn playoff spots won’t pick earlier than No. 15. Here are the eight play-in teams:

• Chicago Bulls (40-42)
• Oklahoma City Thunder (40-42)
• Toronto Raptors (41-41)
• Atlanta Hawks (41-41)
• New Orleans Pelicans (42-40)
• Minnesota Timberwolves (42-40)
• Los Angeles Lakers (43-39)
• Miami Heat (44-38)

Based on their 44-38 record, the Heat could end up with a pick as low as No. 20 in the first round of the draft (depending on tiebreaker results). However, if they lose two play-in games this week and don’t make the playoffs at all, they’d hold the No. 14 spot in the lottery instead.

The Bulls and Thunder finished with matching 40-42 records, while the Raptors and Hawks were each 41-41 and the Pelicans and Timberwolves were both 42-40, so if both teams in any of those pairs are eliminated in the play-in tournament, a tiebreaker will be required to determine their spots in the lottery standings.

If, for example, Atlanta makes the playoffs and Toronto doesn’t, no tiebreaker would be necessary, since the Raptors would be in the lottery and the Hawks wouldn’t.

The tiebreakers

Many tiebreakers will be required to determine either lottery positioning or a team’s specific draft pick. Here are all the teams that finished with identical records, creating a situation where a random tiebreaker will (or may) be required:

2. Houston Rockets / San Antonio Spurs (22-60)
7. Indiana Pacers / Washington Wizards (35-37)
11. Chicago Bulls / Oklahoma City Thunder (40-42)
    • Note: A tiebreaker would not be required if one team makes the playoffs and the other doesn’t.
    • Note: The Bulls’ pick will be sent to the Magic if it lands outside of the top four.
13. Atlanta Hawks / Toronto Raptors (41-41)
    • Note: A tiebreaker would not be required if one team makes the playoffs and the other doesn’t.
    • Note: The Nets’ pick will be sent to the Rockets; the Cavaliers’ pick will be sent to the Pacers if it lands outside of the top 14.
16. Minnesota Timberwolves / New Orleans Pelicans (42-40)
    • Note: A tiebreaker would not be required if one team makes the playoffs and the other doesn’t.
    • Note: The Timberwolves’ pick will be sent to the Jazz; the Pelicans will have the ability to swap their pick with the Lakers’ pick.
18. Golden State Warriors / Los Angeles Clippers / Miami Heat (44-38)
    • Note: The Heat would not be involved in this tiebreaker if they don’t make the playoffs.
    • Note: The Clippers’ pick will be sent to the Rockets.
21. Brooklyn Nets / Phoenix Suns (45-37)
    • Note: The Suns’ pick will be sent to the Nets.
25. Cleveland Cavaliers / Memphis Grizzlies (51-31)
    • Note: The Cavaliers’ pick will be sent to the Pacers.

The playoff teams that win the tiebreakers will get the higher pick in the first round and the lower pick in the second round. For instance, if the Warriors win their three-way tiebreaker and the Heat are the runner-up in that tiebreaker, the first-round order would be Golden State at No. 18, Miami at No. 19, and the Clippers at No. 20; the second-round order would be L.A. at No. 48, Miami at No. 49, and Golden State at No. 50.

However, the second-round order for tied lottery teams isn’t determined until lottery night. For example, if Indiana wins its tiebreaker with Washington, but the Wizards win the No. 1 pick in the lottery, the Pacers would receive the higher second-round pick, since they’d have the lower first-round pick despite winning the tiebreaker.

This is especially relevant for the Spurs/Rockets tiebreaker, since Houston’s second-round pick will be traded to a different team depending on whether it lands at No. 32 (the Pacers) or No. 33 (the Celtics). The results of that tiebreaker won’t determine which team gets Houston’s second-rounder — that won’t be officially decided until lottery night.

These tiebreakers will be conducted sometime after the playoff field is set. Last year, they were held eight days after the regular season ended.

The traded first-round picks

Here’s a breakdown of the traded first-round picks for the 2023 NBA draft:

Picks that will change hands:

• Jazz acquiring Timberwolves‘ pick.
  • If the Timberwolves secure a playoff spot via the play-in tournament, this pick will land in the 16-18 range. If the Timberwolves don’t make the playoffs, it will move into the lottery.
• Rockets acquiring Clippers‘ pick via swap rights (with Bucks pick).
  • The Rockets will swap the Bucks’ pick (No. 30) for the Clippers’ pick, which will land in the 18-20 range, depending on the tiebreaker results. The Clippers will receive the Bucks’ pick as part of the swap.
• Nets acquiring Suns‘ pick.
  • This pick will land at either No. 21 or No. 22, depending on the tiebreaker results.
• Trail Blazers acquiring Knicks‘ pick (top-14 protected).
  • This pick will be No. 23.
• Pacers acquiring Cavaliers‘ pick (top-14 protected).
  • This pick will land at either No. 25 or No. 26, depending on the tiebreaker results.
• Hornets acquiring Nuggets‘ pick (top-14 protected).
  • This pick will be No. 27.
• Jazz acquiring Sixers‘ pick.
  • This pick will be No. 28.
• Pacers acquiring Celtics‘ pick (top-12 protected).
  • This pick will be No. 29.

Picks that won’t change hands:

• Knicks acquiring Pistons‘ pick (top-18 protected).
  • This pick can’t end up lower than No. 5, so it will fall in its protected range. The Pistons will instead owe the Knicks their 2024 first-round pick (top-18 protected).
• Spurs acquiring Hornets‘ pick (top-16 protected).
  • This pick can’t end up lower than No. 8, so it will fall in its protected range. The Hornets will instead owe the Spurs their 2024 first-round pick (top-14 protected).
• Bulls acquiring Trail Blazers‘ pick (top-14 protected).
  • This pick can’t end up lower than No. 9, so it will fall in its protected range. The Trail Blazers will instead owe the Bulls their 2024 first-round pick (top-14 protected).
• Knicks acquiring Wizards‘ pick (top-14 protected).
  • This pick can’t end up lower than No. 12, so it will fall in its protected range. The Wizards will instead owe the Knicks their 2024 first-round pick (top-12 protected).

Picks that might change hands:

• Knicks acquiring Mavericks‘ pick (top-10 protected).
  • There’s a 79.8% chance that this pick will land in the top 10, in which case it would be kept by the Mavericks. There’s a 20.2% chance it will land in the 11-14 range, in which case the Knicks would receive it.
• Magic acquiring Bulls‘ pick (top-four protected).
  • Depending on the tiebreaker, there’s an 8.1-8.5% that this pick will land in the top four, in which case it would be kept by the Bulls. There’s a 91.5-91.9% chance it will land in the 11-14 range, in which case the Magic would receive it.
• Pelicans acquiring Lakers‘ pick via swap rights.
  • If the Pelicans secure a playoff spot via the play-in tournament and the Lakers don’t, they’ll exercise their swap option. If both teams make or miss the playoffs, the Pelicans’ pick will be more favorable than the Lakers’ pick, so New Orleans won’t need to swap.