As we explained on Sunday night following the conclusion of the NBA’s 2022/23 regular season, the results of the play-in tournament helped move the lottery standings and the 2023 draft order one step closer to being officially set.
Here’s what we know now…
Lottery teams
Despite some upsets on Tuesday and Wednesday, the results of the play-in tournament didn’t actually change the lottery standings we originally projected on Sunday. The teams that entered the play-in as the seventh and eighth seeds are the ones that made it through.
The Hawks and Heat claimed the East’s final two playoff spots and will face Boston and Milwaukee, respectively, in round one of the postseason. The Lakers and Timberwolves locked up the Nos. 7 and 8 seeds in the West, lining up first-round dates with Memphis and Denver, respectively.
As a result, the tentative lottery standings are as follows:
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 14 | 13.4 | 12.7 | 12 | 47.9 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| HOU* | 14 | 13.4 | 12.7 | 12 | 27.8 | 20 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| SAS* | 14 | 13.4 | 12.7 | 12 | 14.8 | 26 | 7 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| CHA | 12.5 | 12.2 | 11.9 | 11.5 | 7.2 | 25.7 | 16.7 | 2.2 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| POR | 10.5 | 10.5 | 10.6 | 10.5 | 2.2 | 19.6 | 26.7 | 8.7 | 0.6 | – | – | – | – | – |
| ORL | 9 | 9.2 | 9.4 | 9.6 | – | 8.6 | 29.8 | 20.6 | 3.7 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
| WSH* | 6.8 | 7.1 | 7.5 | 7.9 | – | – | 19.7 | 35.6 | 12.9 | 1.4 | >0 | – | – | – |
| IND* | 6.7 | 7.0 | 7.4 | 7.8 | – | – | – | 32.9 | 31.1 | 6.6 | 0.4 | >0 | – | – |
| UTH | 4.5 | 4.8 | 5.2 | 5.7 | – | – | – | – | 50.7 | 25.9 | 3 | 0.1 | >0 | – |
| DAL | 3 | 3.3 | 3.6 | 4 | – | – | – | – | – | 65.9 | 19 | 1.2 | >0 | >0 |
| OKC* | 1.8 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 2.5 | – | – | – | – | – | – | 77.6 | 13.5 | 0.4 | >0 |
| CHI* | 1.7 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 2.4 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 85.2 | 6.7 | 0.1 |
| TOR | 1.0 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 1.4 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 92.9 | 3.3 |
| NOP | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.7 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 97.6 |
Note: The Mavericks’ pick will be sent to the Knicks if it’s outside the top 10; the Bulls’ pick will be sent to the Magic if it’s outside the top four.
A series of tiebreakers will still be required before the pre-lottery draft order is locked in, since three pairs of lottery teams finished the regular season with identical records.
The teams listed above in italics and marked with asterisks were tied, so the following spots in the chart could still be flipped, pending the results of random tiebreakers:
- Houston Rockets / San Antonio Spurs (22-60)
- Washington Wizards / Indiana Pacers (35-47)
- Oklahoma City Thunder / Chicago Bulls (40-42)
For instance, if the Spurs win their tiebreaker with the Rockets, they’ll be the team that can’t fall further than No. 6 in the lottery, while Houston could slide as far as No. 7.
Lottery teams that ended up with identical regular season records essentially have the same odds at a top-four pick as each other, though the club that wins the tiebreaker will get one extra ping-pong ball combination at No. 7 and No. 11.
Playoff teams
Based on the play-in results, the draft order in the middle of the first round will be as follows:
- Atlanta Hawks (41-41)
- Minnesota Timberwolves (42-40)
- Note: Pick traded to Jazz.
- Los Angeles Lakers (43-39)
- Miami Heat / Los Angeles Clippers / Golden State Warriors (44-38)
- Note: A tiebreaker will be required to determine the order of the Nos. 18-20 picks.
- Note: Clippers’ pick traded to Rockets.
In addition to the tiebreaker required for the Heat, Clippers, and Warriors at No. 18, the following tiebreakers will be necessary for playoff teams:
- Brooklyn Nets / Phoenix Suns (45-37)
- Note: Suns’ pick traded to Nets.
- Cleveland Cavaliers / Memphis Grizzlies (51-31)
- Note: Cavaliers’ pick traded to Pacers.
No random tiebreakers will be required for the following clubs. They finished the regular season with identical records, but one made the playoffs and one didn’t, so the lottery team will pick higher in round one and the playoff team will get the higher pick in round two:
- New Orleans Pelicans / Minnesota Timberwolves (42-40)
- Toronto Raptors / Atlanta Hawks (41-41)
The six random tiebreakers for draft positioning will be conducted by the NBA on Monday, according to Khobi Price of The Orlando Sentinel. Once those are completed, we’ll publish a full pre-lottery order for both rounds of the 2023 draft.
The Pelicans’ 2nd rounder looks to fall to #46 in this scenario, and will convey to Atlanta. If it had somehow been able to stay at #45, New Orleans would have kept the pick.