2023 NBA Offseason Preview: New Orleans Pelicans

After acquiring CJ McCollum at the 2022 trade deadline, the Pelicans went on an impressive late-season run, earning a playoff spot with a pair of play-in tournament victories and then giving the top-ranked Suns a scare in the first round by pushing the series to six games.

With former No. 1 overall pick Zion Williamson healthy to begin the 2022/23 season, there was optimism that New Orleans could make the leap to top-six playoff team and legitimate title contender. And as long as Williamson was on the court, that belief looked entirely warranted. Through the end of December, the Pelicans were 23-13, putting them in a tie for the No. 2 seed in the West, and their +4.8 net rating was the best in the conference.

Unfortunately, the Pelicans’ first game of 2023 was the last one of the season for Williamson, who suffered a hamstring injury that ultimately sidelined him for the remainder of the winter and spring. New Orleans went into a tailspin later in January, ultimately finishing the season on a 19-27 run and then losing a play-in game at home to the 10th-seeded Thunder.

While the Pelicans’ early-season success was encouraging, their reversal of fortunes once Williamson went down was a reminder that they don’t have enough talent to consistently win without him and that they can’t rely on him to stay on the court — he has played more than 29 games just once in his first four NBA seasons.

The Pelicans aren’t trading or waiving Williamson, so all they can really do with Zion is hope for better injury luck. But they can at least take matters into their own hands with the rest of the roster, seeking out upgrades that will allow them to remain more competitive when the star forward isn’t available.

The Pelicans’ Offseason Plan:

With nearly $144MM in guaranteed money committed to eight players, the Pelicans won’t have cap room this offseason. However, once they lock in low-cost team options and non-guaranteed salaries for players like Herbert Jones, Jose Alvarado, and Naji Marshall, they should remain comfortably below the luxury tax line, giving them the flexibility to go shopping in free agency using most of their non-taxpayer mid-level exception.

New Orleans also has a bevy of trade chips available to seek out roster upgrades. Even if the Pelicans aren’t inclined to move any of their valuable young role players – Jones, Alvarado, Dyson Daniels, and Trey Murphy – they control all their own future first-round picks, including a 2023 lottery pick (No. 14). They also own the Lakers’ 2024 first-rounder (unprotected, with the option to defer it to 2025), the Bucks’ unprotected 2027 pick, and swap rights with Milwaukee in 2024 and 2026. In other words, they have the draft assets necessary to build a strong trade package around picks rather than players.

As they evaluate potential targets free agency or via trade, the Pelicans will have to consider what their plans are at center. Jonas Valanciunas, who started all but three games for New Orleans this past season, will earn $15.4MM in 2023/24 on an expiring contract.

As effective as Valanciunas is as a scorer and rebounder, he’s not a switchable defender, and head coach Willie Green often turned to Larry Nance Jr. at center in crunch-time minutes during the second half of the ’22/23 season. If Valanciunas isn’t in New Orleans’ long-term plans, his contract makes him an ideal salary-matching piece in any major trade, since McCollum ($35.8MM), Brandon Ingram ($33.8MM), and Williamson ($33.5MM) almost certainly aren’t going anywhere.

Valanciunas’ salary, for instance, would be a logical match for Raptors forward OG Anunoby ($18.6MM), who has been repeatedly linked to a New Orleans team that could use another two-way wing. Toronto won’t necessarily be eager to reunite with Valanciunas if Jakob Poeltl re-signs, and I’d expect the Raptors to push for players over picks in any major trade, since they don’t control their own 2024 first-round pick. Still, Anunoby is the sort of player the Pelicans figure to target on the trade market — and they have the pieces to get him if they’re willing to be aggressive.

If Valanciunas is moved for an upgrade at another position, it would leave the Pelicans without an obvious starting center on the roster. Former lottery pick Jaxson Hayes will be eligible for restricted free agency and hasn’t shown in his four NBA seasons that he’s ready to step into a starting role. Even if they plan to lean more on players like Nance, Williamson, and Jones as small-ball fives, the Pels would need to address the center position in some form if they were to trade Valanciunas and let Hayes walk. The mid-level exception could come in handy in that regard.

Of course, there’s no guarantee the Pelicans will do anything significant on the trade market this summer. Re-signing Josh Richardson would help fortify the team’s wing depth, and the hope is that youngsters like Murphy, Daniels, and Jones will continue to get better. Internal improvement and a healthy season from Williamson could make New Orleans a contender even without any real outside additions — and it would give the organization an opportunity to take a longer look at which pieces fit best around Zion.

Until they see Williamson play something close to a full season though, it’s hard for the Pelicans to count on that happening. The time might be right for David Griffin and the front office to work on a contingency plan that boosts the floor of this roster, with the hope that a healthy Zion will take its ceiling to new heights.

Salary Cap Situation

Guaranteed Salary

• CJ McCollum ($35,802,469)
• Brandon Ingram ($33,833,400)
• Zion Williamson ($33,500,000)
  • Note: Williamson’s salary will be 25% of the 2023/24 salary cap. This is a projection based on a $134MM cap.
• Jonas Valanciunas ($15,435,000)
• Larry Nance Jr. ($10,375,000)
• Dyson Daniels ($5,784,120)
• Kira Lewis ($5,722,116)
• Trey Murphy ($3,359,280)
• E.J. Liddell (two-way)
• Dereon Seabron (two-way)
• Total: $143,811,385
  

Dead/Retained Salary

• None

Player Options

• None

Team Options

• Willy Hernangomez ($2,559,942): Bird rights
• Naji Marshall ($1,930,681): Bird rights
• Herbert Jones ($1,836,096): Early Bird rights
• Total: $6,326,719

Non-Guaranteed Salary

• Garrett Temple ($5,401,000)
  • Note: Temple’s salary would become fully guaranteed if he’s not waived on or before June 30.
• Jose Alvarado ($1,836,096)
• Total: $7,237,096

Restricted Free Agents

• Jaxson Hayes ($7,744,600 qualifying offer / $20,409,036 cap hold): Bird rights
• Total (cap holds): $20,409,036

Two-Way Free Agents

• None

Draft Picks

• No. 14 overall ($4,246,200)
• Total: $4,246,200

Extension-Eligible Players

• Willy Hernangomez (veteran)
• Brandon Ingram (veteran)
• Herbert Jones (veteran)
• Naji Marshall (veteran)
• Garrett Temple (veteran)
• Jonas Valanciunas (veteran)
• Kira Lewis (rookie scale)

Note: These are players who are either already eligible for an extension or will become eligible before the 2023/24 season begins. Hernangomez and Jones would only become eligible if their team options are exercised. Valanciunas will become eligible on October 20, which will be right around the start of the regular season.

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

• Josh Richardson ($18,294,141 cap hold): Bird rights
• Tony Snell ($1,989,698 cap hold): Non-Bird rights
• Gary Clark ($1,774,999 cap hold): Non-Bird rights
• Jared Harper ($1,774,999 cap hold): Non-Bird rights
• James Nunnally ($1,774,999 cap hold): Non-Bird rights
• Total: $25,608,836

Note: The cap holds for the players listed in italics remain on the Pelicans’ books from prior seasons because they haven’t been renounced. They can’t be used in a sign-and-trade deal.

Cap Exceptions Available

• Mid-level exception: $12,220,600
• Bi-annual exception: $4,448,000

Note: The Pelicans would lose access to the full mid-level exception and the bi-annual exception if their team salary surpasses the tax apron.